Toluca vs Necaxa Prediction
AI call
Toluca or draw
47%
28%
25%
Home Win
Draw
Away Win
Toluca vs Necaxa prediction: Sportiko gives Toluca a 47% chance of winning, Necaxa 25% and the draw 28%. Last updated 3 Aug 2026, 03:13.
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Timeline
Ivan López
assist: Jesús Gallardo
29'
⚽
1–0
⚽
1–1
42'
Julián Carranza
assist: Alexis Peña
▮
45+4'
R. Martínez
Yellow Card
Everardo López
assist: Ivan López
45+5'
⚽
2–1
▮
45+7'
Julián Carranza
Red Card
▮
45+7'
Agustín Oliveros
Yellow Card
HT 2–1
⇄
46'
Juan Torres
⇄ Pedro Pedraza
⇄
46'
Carlos Vargas
⇄ Mauro Zaleta
⇄
46'
Javier Ruiz
⇄ Juan Valencia
Luis Jimenez
Own Goal
57'
⚽
3–1
Jorge Díaz
⇄ Víctor Guzmán
59'
⇄
Ivan López
⇄ Federico Viñas
59'
⇄
Érick Gutiérrez
⇄ Helinho
65'
⇄
Jesús Ricardo Angulo
⇄ Pavel Pérez
65'
⇄
⇄
67'
Lorenzo Faravelli
⇄ Matías Espíndola
▮
80'
Agustín Oliveros
Yellow Card
▮
80'
Agustín Oliveros
Red Card
⇄
85'
Danny Leyva
⇄ Francisco Méndez
Alexis Vega
⇄ Antonio Briseño
90'
⇄
Franco Romero
Yellow Card
90+7'
▮
▮
90+7'
Juan Valencia
Yellow Card
FT 3–1
Toluca
Match Stats
Necaxa
75%
Ball Possession
25%
1.51
Expected Goals (xG)
1.32
25
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Goal
3
12
Shots off Goal
3
6
Blocked Shots
2
15
Shots insidebox
3
10
Shots outsidebox
5
6
Corner Kicks
2
1
Offsides
0
15
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
742
Total passes
246
686
Passes accurate
179
92%
Passes %
73%
-0.89
goals_prevented
-0.89
Toluca
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Alexis Vega M | 9.0 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 74 (72%) | – |
| 20 Jesús Gallardo D | 7.9 | 97' | – | 1 | 4 | 71 (60%) | 3 |
| 21 Ivan López F | 7.9 | 59' | 1 | 1 | 2 | 18 (14%) | – |
| 6 Federico Pereira D | 7.5 | 97' | – | – | – | 98 (95%) | – |
| 5 Franco Romero M | 7.3 | 97' | – | – | – | 96 (90%) | 5 |
| 10 Jesús Ricardo Angulo M | 7.2 | 65' | – | – | 2 | 34 (30%) | – |
| 25 Everardo López D | 7.0 | 97' | 1 | – | 1 | 89 (86%) | 2 |
| 15 Pavel Pérez M | 7.0 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 20 (18%) | 1 |
| 11 Helinho F | 6.9 | 32' | – | – | – | 25 (23%) | – |
| 29 Jorge Díaz M | 6.7 | 59' | – | – | 1 | 27 (24%) | – |
| 22 Luis García G | 6.6 | 97' | – | – | – | 25 (21%) | – |
| 7 Víctor Guzmán M | 6.5 | 38' | – | – | 1 | 32 (30%) | – |
| 16 Federico Viñas F | 6.3 | 38' | – | – | 1 | 14 (13%) | – |
| 19 Santiago Simón D | 6.3 | 97' | – | – | – | 70 (64%) | 1 |
| 35 Érick Gutiérrez M | 6.2 | 65' | – | – | 2 | 47 (45%) | 2 |
| 3 Antonio Briseño D | — | 7' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | 1 |
Necaxa
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 Luis Jimenez G | 7.3 | 97' | – | – | – | 35 (19%) | – |
| 6 Danny Leyva M | 7.2 | 85' | – | – | 1 | 30 (23%) | 2 |
| 16 Pedro Pedraza M | 6.7 | 52' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | – |
| 14 Mauro Zaleta M | 6.5 | 52' | – | – | – | 11 (8%) | – |
| 9 Julián Carranza F | 6.5 | 51' | 1 | – | 1 | 16 (10%) | 1 |
| 21 Matías Espíndola M | 6.5 | 30' | – | – | – | 11 (8%) | 1 |
| 20 Francisco Méndez D | 6.3 | 12' | – | – | – | 5 (5%) | 1 |
| 3 Agustín Oliveros D | 6.3 | 80' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | – |
| 8 Lorenzo Faravelli M | 6.3 | 67' | – | – | – | 17 (15%) | 1 |
| 10 Javier Ruiz M | 6.3 | 45' | – | – | – | 9 (6%) | 2 |
| 90 Juan Valencia F | 6.3 | 52' | – | – | – | 6 (6%) | – |
| 88 Carlos Vargas D | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | – | 8 (7%) | 2 |
| 11 Juan Torres F | 6.2 | 45' | – | – | 1 | 7 (5%) | – |
| 99 Emilio Rodriguez D | 6.2 | 97' | – | – | 2 | 19 (11%) | 2 |
| 4 Alexis Peña D | 6.2 | 97' | – | 1 | 1 | 20 (16%) | – |
| 33 R. Martínez D | 5.9 | 97' | – | – | – | 21 (15%) | 1 |
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Confidence
Low (47%)
At a glance
Our lean
Toluca or draw
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Toluca
LWWWW
Necaxa
LLDLD
Last 2 meetings
Toluca · 2W 0D 0L
Match summary
In the upcoming Liga MX clash, Toluca faces Necaxa with both teams aiming to secure crucial points early in the season. Toluca's recent form at home has been strong, showcasing an average of 1.8 goals scored per match in the last five home games. Necaxa, however, has shown resilience on the road, with a solid defense that has conceded only 1.2 goals per game in their last five away fixtures. Key player performances, particularly in midfield and attack, will likely determine the outcome, as both teams look to exploit any defensive lapses. Expect a competitive match with potential for goals on both sides.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
47%
45%
Draw
28%
45%
Away
25%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Toluca
F. Viñas
4 gls
Necaxa
J. Carranza
5 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Toluca vs Necaxa
2
Toluca Wins
0
Draws
0
Necaxa Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 22 Feb 2026 | Necaxa | 0 - 3 | Toluca |
| 12 Jul 2025 | Toluca | 3 - 1 | Necaxa |
Toluca — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 21 Sep | H Santos Laguna | L | 2 - 3 |
| 16 Sep | A Puebla | W | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | H Atlas | W | 5 - 2 |
| 07 Sep | H Monterrey | W | 2 - 0 |
| 03 Sep | H Leon | W | 2 - 0 |
Necaxa — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Atletico San Luis | L | 3 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | H Puebla | L | 0 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | A Tigres UANL | D | 1 - 1 |
| 29 Aug | H Cruz Azul | L | 1 - 3 |
| 24 Aug | A U.N.A.M. - Pumas | D | 1 - 1 |
Liga MX Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Toluca
|
9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 20 | 9 | +11 | 19 |
| 2 |
Guadalajara Chivas
|
9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 18 |
| 3 |
Club America
|
8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 8 | +9 | 17 |
| 4 |
Cruz Azul
|
9 | 5 | 0 | 4 | 16 | 15 | +1 | 15 |
| 5 |
Club Queretaro
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 8 | +3 | 14 |
| 6 |
Club Tijuana
|
8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 7 |
Leon
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 12 | 10 | +2 | 14 |
| 8 |
Puebla
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 |
Atlas
|
9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 15 | -2 | 14 |
| 10 |
Monterrey
|
8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 13 |
| 11 |
CF Pachuca
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 12 |
| 12 |
U.N.A.M. - Pumas
|
9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | -1 | 12 |
| 13 |
Atletico San Luis
|
9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 9 |
| 14 |
Atlante FC
|
9 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 8 | 13 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 |
Necaxa
|
9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 16 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 |
Tigres UANL
|
9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 7 |
| 17 |
Santos Laguna
|
9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 9 | 15 | -6 | 7 |
| 18 |
FC Juarez
|
9 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 6 | 23 | -17 | 3 |
Toluca
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: A. Mohamed
22
García
20
Gallardo
6
Pereira
25
López
19
Simón
5
Romero
29
Díaz
9
Vega
35
Gutiérrez
10
Angulo
21
López
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 22 | Luis García | G |
| 19 | Santiago Simón | D |
| 25 | Everardo López | D |
| 6 | Federico Pereira | D |
| 20 | Jesús Gallardo | D |
| 29 | Jorge Díaz | M |
| 5 | Franco Romero | M |
| 10 | Jesús Ricardo Angulo | M |
| 35 | Érick Gutiérrez | M |
| 9 | Alexis Vega | M |
| 21 | Ivan López | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | Hugo Gonzalez | G |
| 4 | Bruno Méndez | D |
| 13 | Luan | D |
| 17 | Brian García | D |
| 3 | Antonio Briseño | D |
| 7 | Víctor Guzmán | M |
| 11 | Helinho | F |
| 15 | Pavel Pérez | M |
| 24 | Fernando Arce Juárez | M |
| 16 | Federico Viñas | F |
Necaxa
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: M. Varini
12
Jimenez
3
Oliveros
4
Peña
33
Martínez
88
Vargas
6
Leyva
8
Faravelli
30
Monreal
10
Ruiz
11
Torres
9
Carranza
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 12 | Luis Jimenez | G |
| 33 | Raúl Martínez | D |
| 4 | Alexis Peña | D |
| 3 | Agustín Oliveros | D |
| 30 | Ricardo Monreal | M |
| 8 | Lorenzo Faravelli | M |
| 6 | Danny Leyva | M |
| 88 | Carlos Vargas | M |
| 11 | Juan Torres | F |
| 10 | Javier Ruiz | F |
| 9 | Julián Carranza | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | Christopher Andrade | G |
| 20 | Francisco Méndez | D |
| 5 | Kaiky Naves | D |
| 17 | Rogelio Cortéz Pineda | M |
| 16 | Pedro Pedraza | M |
| 99 | Emilio Rodriguez | M |
| 14 | Mauro Zaleta | M |
| 21 | Matías Espíndola | M |
| 90 | Juan Valencia | F |
| 27 | Miguel Pedroza | F |