Egypt vs Iran Prediction

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

Post on X

Iran

Away

Lumen Field, Seattle, Washington

AI call Iran or draw

25%

32%

44%

Home Win Draw Away Win

Egypt vs Iran prediction: Sportiko gives Egypt a 25% chance of winning, Iran 44% and the draw 32%. Last updated 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Match Report

Egypt and Iran played out a frantic opening to this World Cup group stage encounter, with both goals arriving inside the first quarter-hour. Mahmoud Saber broke the deadlock for Egypt in the fifth minute, but Iran responded swiftly. Mehdi Taremi squandered the chance to level immediately when he missed a penalty in the 11th minute, though Ramin Rezaeian made no mistake three minutes later to restore parity. The scoreline at half-time reflected the breathless early exchanges, with bookings already accumulated on both sides.

The second half was a more measured affair, with Iran dominating possession at 62% and generating eight corner kicks to Egypt's two. Despite that territorial control, neither side could find a winner. A dramatic late twist came in stoppage time when Shoja Khalilzadeh had a goal ruled out for offside by VAR, before picking up a yellow card moments later. Egypt's expected goals figure of 1.76 actually exceeded Iran's 0.81, suggesting the Egyptians created the higher-quality chances despite seeing less of the ball.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an Iran win as the most likely outcome at 44%, a call that did not materialise as the points were shared.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Mahmoud Saber

5' ⚽ 1–0

✗ 11'

Mehdi Taremi Missed Penalty

⚽ 1–1 14'

Ramin Rezaeian

Mohamed Abdelmonem ⇄ Yasser Ibrahim

14' ⇄

▮ 19'

Hossein Kanaani Yellow Card

Mahmoud Saber Yellow Card

20' ▮

Yasser Ibrahim Yellow Card

42' ▮

▮ 43'

Yellow Card

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

⇄ Saleh Hardani

Emam Ashour ⇄ Omar Marmoush

46' ⇄

Mahmoud Saber ⇄ Marwan Attia

46' ⇄

Mohamed Salah ⇄ Zizo

57' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Saman Ghoddos ⇄ Shahriar Moghanlou

Mostafa Ziko ⇄ Hamza Abdelkarim

76' ⇄

▮ 79'

Saeid Ezatolahi Yellow Card

⇄ 90+1'

Mohammad Mohebi ⇄ Alireza Jahanbakhsh

Mohanad Lasheen Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

🖵 90+3'

Shoja Khalilzadeh Goal Disallowed - offside

▮ 90+4'

Shoja Khalilzadeh Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Egypt

Match Stats

Iran

62% Ball Possession 38%

0.81 Expected Goals (xG) 1.76

15 Total Shots 11

3 Shots on Goal 4

6 Shots off Goal 5

6 Blocked Shots 2

8 Shots insidebox 8

7 Shots outsidebox 3

8 Corner Kicks 2

0 Offsides 3

11 Fouls 16

3 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

580 Total passes 359

510 Passes accurate 278

88% Passes % 77%

-0.55 goals_prevented -0.55

Egypt

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
3 Mohamed Hany D	7.6	97'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	6
21 Mahmoud Saber M	7.3	45'	1	–	3	33 (30%)	–
23 Mostafa Shobeir G	7.2	97'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	–
19 Marwan Attia M	7.2	52'	–	–	–	53 (49%)	–
25 Zizo F	7.2	40'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	1
17 Mohanad Lasheen M	7.0	97'	–	–	2	87 (74%)	–
2 Yasser Ibrahim D	6.9	83'	–	–	–	58 (53%)	4
13 Ahmed Fatouh D	6.7	97'	–	–	–	57 (51%)	–
10 Mohamed Salah M	6.7	57'	–	–	–	23 (16%)	–
5 Rami Rabia D	6.7	97'	–	–	–	83 (80%)	–
22 Omar Marmoush F	6.6	52'	–	–	–	11 (9%)	2
7 Mahmoud Trézéguet M	6.5	97'	–	1	3	41 (34%)	–
11 Mostafa Ziko F	6.3	76'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	–
9 Hamza Abdelkarim F	6.3	21'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
8 Emam Ashour M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	25 (20%)	2
6 Mohamed Abdelmonem D	5.9	14'	–	–	–	12 (12%)	1

Iran

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Ali Nemati D	7.3	97'	–	–	–	50 (42%)	3
2 Saleh Hardani D	7.3	52'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	2
6 Saeid Ezatolahi M	7.2	97'	–	–	1	34 (27%)	2
5 Milad Mohammadi D	7.0	97'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	4
23 Ramin Rezaeian D	6.9	97'	1	–	2	25 (20%)	4
9 Mehdi Taremi F	6.9	97'	–	–	1	27 (18%)	2
1 Alireza Beiranvand G	6.7	97'	–	–	–	29 (18%)	–
4 Shoja Khalilzadeh D	6.7	97'	–	–	1	55 (46%)	1
21 Mohammad Ghorbani M	6.7	97'	–	–	1	24 (20%)	2
8 Mohammad Mohebi M	6.5	91'	–	–	–	37 (25%)	1
13 Hossein Kanaani D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	17 (16%)	–
14 Saman Ghoddos M	6.3	67'	–	–	2	18 (13%)	1
20 Shahriar Moghanlou F	6.3	30'	–	–	–	9 (5%)	1
7 Alireza Jahanbakhsh F	—	6'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Low (44%)

At a glance

Our lean

Iran or draw

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

38%

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Egypt

LDDWD

Iran

DDDLW

Match summary

In this World Cup clash on June 27, Egypt will face Iran, setting the stage for a tactical battle. Egypt, known for their strong defensive organization and reliance on counter-attacking play, will look to leverage Mohamed Salah's pace and creativity. Iran, on the other hand, boasts a solid defensive record and has shown resilience in recent international fixtures. Historically, Egypt has a slight edge in head-to-head encounters, but Iran's recent form, including a solid qualification campaign, suggests this match could be tightly contested. Set pieces and midfield control will likely be pivotal in determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

25%

45%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

44%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Iran goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	12	12	9	4	1
1	8	15	9	4	1
2	5	6	4	2	1
3	1	2	1	1
4
5

↑ Egypt goals · most likely 1–1 (14.7%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Draw

32%

Home Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

44%

Draw

32%

Home Win

25%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

64% Away (No Draw) 36% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 9% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals 25% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

62%

2.5

38%

82%

3.5

18%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

29%

20%

11%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	12.5%	12.4%	9.3%	4.0%	1.3%
1	8.2%	14.7%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	4.6%	6.0%	3.9%	1.7%	0.6%
3	1.4%	1.8%	1.2%	0.5%	0.2%
4	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

38%

34%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Egypt	Draw	Iran
Egypt	13.8%	4.1%	1.8%
Draw	10.5%	21.3%	16.9%
Iran	1.2%	4.1%	26.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

93%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

40%

37%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Egypt vs Iran

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Egypt — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Jul	A Argentina	L	3 - 2
03 Jul	A Australia	D	1 - 1
27 Jun	H Iran	D	1 - 1
22 Jun	A New Zealand	W	1 - 3
15 Jun	A Belgium	D	1 - 1

Iran — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
27 Jun	A Egypt	D	1 - 1
21 Jun	A Belgium	D	0 - 0
16 Jun	H New Zealand	D	2 - 2
07 Feb	H Qatar	L	2 - 3
03 Feb	H Japan	W	2 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Iran

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Amir Ghalenoei

1 Beiranvand

5 Mohammadi

19 Nemati

4 Khalilzadeh

13 Kanaani

23 Rezaeian

8 Mohebi

6 Ezatolahi

21 Ghorbani

14 Ghoddos

9 Taremi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Alireza Beiranvand	G
23	Ramin Rezaeian	D
13	Hossein Kanaani	D
4	Shoja Khalilzadeh	D
19	Ali Nemati	D
5	Milad Mohammadi	D
14	Saman Ghoddos	M
21	Mohammad Ghorbani	M
6	Saeid Ezatolahi	M
8	Mohammad Mohebi	M
9	Mehdi Taremi	F

Substitutes

2	Saleh Hardani	D
12	Payam Niazmand	G
22	Hossein Hosseini	G
3	Ehsan Hajsafi	D
25	Danial Eiri	D
15	Roozbeh Cheshmi	M
17	Aria Yousefi	D
26	Amirmohammad Razzaghinia	M
10	Mehdi Ghayedi	F
7	Alireza Jahanbakhsh	F
16	Mahdi Torabi	M
11	Ali Alipour	F
18	Amirhossein Hosseinzadeh	F
20	Shahriar Moghanlou	F
24	Dennis Eckert Ayensa	F

Egypt

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Hossam Hassan

23 Shobeir

13 Fatouh

6 Abdelmonem

5 Rabia

3 Hany

21 Saber

17 Lasheen

7 Trézéguet

10 Salah

8 Ashour

11 Ziko

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Mostafa Shobeir	G
3	Mohamed Hany	D
5	Rami Rabia	D
6	Mohamed Abdelmonem	D
13	Ahmed Fatouh	D
17	Mohanad Lasheen	M
21	Mahmoud Saber	M
8	Emam Ashour	M
10	Mohamed Salah	M
7	Mahmoud Trézéguet	M
11	Mostafa Ziko	F

Substitutes

2	Yasser Ibrahim	D
19	Marwan Attia	M
22	Omar Marmoush	F
25	Zizo	F
1	Mohamed El-Shenawy	G
16	Mahdi Soliman	G
26	Mohamed Alaa	G
15	Karim Hafez	D
24	Tarek Alaa	D
18	Nabil Donga	M
12	Haissem Hassan	F
20	Ibrahim Adel	F
9	Hamza Abdelkarim	F