Nottingham Forest vs Burnley Prognose

Premier League · Regular Season - 33

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Burnley

Away

The City Ground, Nottingham, Nottinghamshire

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63%

26%

10%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Nottingham Forest vs. Burnley Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Nottingham Forest eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 63%, für Burnley 10% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Burnley looked the more threatening side in the first half, taking a deserved lead through Zian Flemming just before the interval despite the away team's xG of 1.19 reflecting their dominance with ten total shots to Forest's four.

The second half told an entirely different story. Forest levelled through Morgan Gibbs-White shortly after the restart, and the midfielder then turned the match on its head with two further goals in the 69th and 77th minutes to complete a stunning hat-trick. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Forest win as the most likely outcome at 63%, a call that proved well-founded despite the half-time scoreline. Igor Jesus added a fourth in stoppage time to put a emphatic gloss on the result.

The statistics make Forest's turnaround all the more remarkable — Burnley held 51% possession, matched the hosts on corners, and generated significantly more expected goals at 1.19 to just 0.36. Nonetheless, Forest's clinical finishing and a double substitution at half-time, including the withdrawal of Murillo, proved to be decisive turning points in a dramatic Premier League contest.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Murillo

42' ⇄

⚽ 0–1 45'

Zian Flemming assist: Quilindschy Hartman

HT 0–1

Dilane Bakwa ⇄ Igor Jesus

46' ⇄

Morgan Gibbs-White

62' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 64'

Marcus Edwards ⇄ Lyle Foster

Morgan Gibbs-White assist: Omari Hutchinson

69' ⚽ 2–1

▮ 75'

Florentino Luís Yellow Card

Chris Wood ⇄ Ryan Yates

76' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Lesley Ugochukwu ⇄ Jacob Bruun Larsen

Morgan Gibbs-White assist: Ryan Yates

77' ⚽ 3–1

▮ 80'

Kyle Walker Yellow Card

⇄ 83'

Jaidon Anthony ⇄ Loum Tchaouna

⇄ 83'

Florentino Luís

⇄ 84'

Zian Flemming ⇄ Armando Broja

Omari Hutchinson ⇄ Morato

88' ⇄

Morgan Gibbs-White ⇄ Nicolás Domínguez

89' ⇄

Igor Jesus assist: Nicolás Domínguez

90' ⚽ 4–1

FT 4–1

Nottingham Forest

Match Stats

Burnley

51% Ball Possession 49%

1.19 Expected Goals (xG) 0.36

10 Total Shots 4

4 Shots on Goal 3

4 Shots off Goal 0

2 Blocked Shots 1

8 Shots insidebox 3

2 Shots outsidebox 1

4 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 0

8 Fouls 12

0 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 1

474 Total passes 453

389 Passes accurate 370

82% Passes % 82%

-2.35 goals_prevented -2.35

Nottingham Forest

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Morgan Gibbs-White M	10.0	89'	3	–	5	30 (23%)	2
19 Igor Jesus F	7.9	45'	1	–	1	14 (13%)	3
3 Neco Williams D	7.5	90'	–	–	1	44 (35%)	3
6 Ibrahim Sangaré M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	52 (45%)	2
8 Elliot Anderson M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	77 (57%)	3
5 Murillo D	7.2	42'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	3
16 Nicolás Domínguez M	7.2	10'	–	1	–	13 (13%)	3
21 Omari Hutchinson M	6.9	88'	–	1	–	29 (25%)	1
22 Ryan Yates M	6.9	14'	–	1	–	6 (5%)	–
34 Ola Aina D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	50 (42%)	1
26 Matz Sels G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	21 (13%)	–
4 Morato D	6.6	11'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–
23 Jair D	6.6	48'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
11 Chris Wood F	6.5	76'	–	–	1	13 (8%)	–
29 Dilane Bakwa M	6.5	45'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	1
31 Nikola Milenković D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	43 (38%)	–

Burnley

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Zian Flemming F	7.3	84'	1	–	1	11 (5%)	1
10 Marcus Edwards M	6.7	64'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	3
29 Josh Laurent M	6.7	16'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	2
3 Quilindschy Hartman D	6.5	90'	–	1	–	51 (39%)	4
7 Jacob Bruun Larsen F	6.5	14'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
27 Armando Broja F	6.5	15'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
17 Loum Tchaouna F	6.5	16'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	–
20 James Ward-Prowse M	6.2	90'	–	–	1	67 (58%)	–
8 Lesley Ugochukwu M	6.2	76'	–	–	–	17 (15%)	1
11 Jaidon Anthony M	6.2	83'	–	–	–	30 (23%)	–
9 Lyle Foster F	6.0	26'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	1
5 Maxime Estève D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	37 (30%)	4
16 Florentino Luís M	6.0	83'	–	–	–	33 (28%)	5
2 Kyle Walker D	6.0	90'	–	–	–	52 (46%)	1
18 Hjalmar Ekdal D	5.9	90'	–	–	–	52 (46%)	–
1 Martin Dubravka G	5.3	90'	–	–	–	47 (35%)	–

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Nottingham Forest

LWDDL

Burnley

DLDLD

Last 3 meetings Nottingham Forest · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League clash on April 18, 2026, Nottingham Forest will host Burnley at the City Ground. Nottingham Forest has shown strong home form, boasting a 65% win rate at home this season, while Burnley has struggled on the road, managing only 25% of their away matches as wins. Key players to watch include Forest’s top scorer, whose performance could be pivotal, especially against Burnley’s defense, which has conceded an average of 2 goals per game away. This match could be crucial for both teams in their fight for mid-table security, making it a must-watch for fans.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Burnley goals →

	0	1	2
0	15	6	1
1	22	9	2
2	16	7	1
3	8	3	1
4	3	1
5	1

↑ Nottingham Forest goals · most likely 1–0 (22.3%)

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Head to Head: Nottingham Forest vs Burnley

1 Nottingham Forest Wins

2 Draws

0 Burnley Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
20 Sep 2025	Burnley	1 - 1	Nottingham Forest
19 May 2024	Burnley	1 - 2	Nottingham Forest
18 Sep 2023	Nottingham Forest	1 - 1	Burnley

Nottingham Forest — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Coventry	L	0 - 1
12 Sep	A Aston Villa	W	1 - 2
05 Sep	H Tottenham	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	A Liverpool	D	2 - 2
25 Aug	H Leeds	L	0 - 2

Burnley — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Derby	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Swansea	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	A Wrexham	D	1 - 1
05 Sep	H Bristol City	L	1 - 2
02 Sep	H Middlesbrough	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2