Sao Paulo vs Internacional Prognose

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

Post on X

Internacional

Away

Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo (Morumbi), São Paulo, São Paulo

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Sao Paulo

52%

29%

19%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Sao Paulo vs. Internacional Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Sao Paulo eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 52%, für Internacional 19% und für ein Unentschieden 29%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 20 Sep 2026, 01:59.

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Timeline

Jonathan Calleri Penalty

15' ⚽ 1–0

Jonathan Calleri Yellow Card

19' ▮

▮ 20'

Matheus Bahia Yellow Card

▮ 34'

Bruno Henrique Yellow Card

Domingos Duarte ⇄ Sabino

39' ⇄

⇄ 45'

Bruno Henrique ⇄ Thiago Maia

⇄ 45'

Matheus Bahia ⇄ Allex

HT 1–0

Luciano ⇄ Danielzinho

64' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Vitinho ⇄ Braian Aguirre

Jonathan Calleri ⇄ Ferreirinha

73' ⇄

Pedro Lima ⇄ Lucas Ramon

73' ⇄

Artur ⇄ André Silva

73' ⇄

⇄ 79'

Paulinho Paula ⇄ Antonio Sanabria

⇄ 88'

Johan Carbonero ⇄ Niclas Eliasson

▮ 90+3'

Gabriel Mercado Yellow Card

FT 1–0

Sao Paulo

Match Stats

Internacional

44% Ball Possession 56%

6 Total Shots 13

1 Shots on Goal 1

2 Shots off Goal 8

3 Blocked Shots 4

4 Shots insidebox 5

2 Shots outsidebox 8

3 Corner Kicks 3

1 Offsides 5

15 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 0

395 Total passes 490

317 Passes accurate 423

13 Free Kicks 12

Sao Paulo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
2 Rafael Tolói D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	1
5 Robert Arboleda D	7.4	90'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	1
94 Danielzinho M	7.2	26'	–	–	–	14 (13%)	–
22 Domingos Duarte D	7.1	39'	–	–	1	18 (16%)	–
35 Sabino D	7.1	51'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	2
19 Lucas Ramon D	7.0	17'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	1
48 Djhordney Ferreira M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	38 (33%)	4
8 Marcos Antônio M	6.8	90'	–	–	–	64 (56%)	2
32 Pedro Lima M	6.8	73'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	1
37 Artur M	6.7	73'	–	–	2	28 (22%)	1
23 Rafael G	6.6	90'	–	–	–	36 (21%)	–
10 Luciano M	6.6	64'	–	–	1	12 (9%)	2
11 Ferreirinha F	6.5	17'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	–
17 André Silva F	6.5	17'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	–
9 Jonathan Calleri F	6.4	73'	1	–	1	14 (6%)	–
12 Iago Borduchi M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	–

Internacional

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
25 Gabriel Mercado D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	54 (50%)	1
15 Bruno Gomes D	7.0	90'	–	–	2	65 (52%)	–
29 Thiago Maia M	6.8	44'	–	–	1	44 (41%)	–
3 Guillermo Maripán D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	1
27 Paulinho Paula M	6.6	79'	–	–	–	48 (43%)	4
19 Antonio Sanabria F	6.5	11'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
26 Alexandro Bernabei M	6.5	90'	–	–	2	50 (44%)	–
35 Braian Aguirre D	6.4	20'	–	–	1	8 (8%)	1
6 Matheus Bahia M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	3
31 Allex M	6.3	44'	–	–	2	17 (16%)	–
8 Bruno Henrique M	6.3	46'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
7 Johan Carbonero M	6.2	88'	–	–	–	19 (19%)	–
28 Vitinho M	6.1	70'	–	–	1	35 (26%)	1
10 Alan Patrick F	6.0	90'	–	–	3	32 (31%)	–
12 Anthoni G	5.9	90'	–	–	–	29 (19%)	–
17 Niclas Eliasson M	5.8	2'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

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Confidence Medium (52%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Sao Paulo

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.7%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

40%

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Sao Paulo

WDLLW

Internacional

LWLLL

Last 3 meetings Sao Paulo · 2W 1D 0L

Live insights

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Sao Paulo leads 1-0. Win probability: 91.7%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 8.3%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Sao Paulo leads. Win probability: 86.1%. Over 0.5 more goals: 67.2%.

15' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Sao Paulo win: 85.2%. BTTS: 44.2%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

52%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Internacional goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	12	6	2	1
1	15	13	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	7	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Sao Paulo goals · most likely 1–0 (14.7%)

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Players in form

Sao Paulo

Luciano 8 gls

J. Calleri 8 gls

Internacional

J. Carbonero 7 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

52%

Draw

29%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

79% Home (No Draw) 21% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

32%

1.5

68%

60%

2.5

40%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

20%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.6%	5.6%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
1	14.7%	12.8%	4.0%	0.9%	0.2%
2	12.9%	9.0%	3.2%	0.7%	0.1%
3	6.9%	4.8%	1.7%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.8%	1.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

42%

35%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sao Paulo	Draw	Internacional
Sao Paulo	34.7%	3.8%	1.0%
Draw	22.2%	19.3%	7.9%
Internacional	1.8%	2.8%	6.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sao Paulo vs Internacional

2 Sao Paulo Wins

1 Draws

0 Internacional Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Apr 2026	Internacional	1 - 1	Sao Paulo
03 Dec 2025	Sao Paulo	3 - 0	Internacional
03 Aug 2025	Internacional	1 - 2	Sao Paulo

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Internacional	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Palmeiras	L	2 - 0
09 Sep	A Boca Juniors	L	1 - 0
05 Sep	H Atletico-MG	W	2 - 0

Internacional — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	1 - 0
12 Sep	A Chapecoense-sc	W	1 - 2
06 Sep	H Santos	L	2 - 3
03 Sep	A Gremio	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	A Bahia	L	3 - 2

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Internacional

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: P. Pezzolano

12 Anthoni

25 Mercado

3 Maripán

15 Gomes

6 Bahia

8 Henrique

27 Paulinho

28 Vitinho

26 Bernabéi

7 Carbonero

10 Patrick

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Anthoni	G
15	Bruno Gomes	D
3	G. Maripán	D
25	G. Mercado	D
28	Vitinho	M
27	Paulinho	M
8	Bruno Henrique	M
6	Matheus Bahia	M
7	J. Carbonero	M
26	A. Bernabéi	M
10	Alan Patrick	F

Substitutes

4	F. Torres	D
35	B. Aguirre	D
9	Alerrandro	F
31	Allex	M
17	N. Eliasson	M
44	Victor Joao	F
18	Juninho	D
16	Ronaldo	M
19	A. Sanabria	F
29	Thiago Maia	M
24	Filipe Borba Sirio	G

Sao Paulo

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Dorival Júnior

23 Rafael

2 Tolói

5 Arboleda

22 Duarte

12 Iago

48 Ferreira

8 Antônio

32 Lima

37 Artur

10 Luciano

9 Calleri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Rafael	G
22	Domingos Duarte	D
5	R. Arboleda	D
2	R. Tolói	D
32	Pedro Lima	M
8	Marcos Antônio	M
48	D. Ferreira	M
12	Iago	M
10	Luciano	M
37	Artur	M
9	J. Calleri	F

Substitutes

17	André Silva	F
18	Wendell	D
27	Victor Sá	F
43	G. Santana	F
35	Sabino	D
49	Ryan Francisco	F
46	Pedro Ferreira	M
31	Carlos Coronel	G
80	Cauly	M
94	Danielzinho	M
11	Ferreira	F
19	Lucas Ramon	D