Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc Prognose

Serie A · Regular Season - 28

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Chapecoense-sc

Away

Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais

KI-Tipp Atletico-MG gewinnt oder unentschieden

69%

21%

10%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Atletico-MG vs. Chapecoense-sc Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Atletico-MG eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 69%, für Chapecoense-sc 10% und für ein Unentschieden 21%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 19 Sep 2026, 20:56.

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5 72%
1st Half Over 0.5 71%
Home 2H Over 0.5 70%

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 44'

assist: Dudu

HT 0–1

Vitor Hugo Yellow Card

48' ▮

Kauã Pascini ⇄ Mateo Cassierra

58' ⇄

Alexsander ⇄ Renan Lodi

58' ⇄

Alan Minda ⇄ Dudu

58' ⇄

Mateo Cassierra

69' ⚽ 1–1

⇄ 71'

⇄ Yannick Bolasie

⇄ 71'

Dudu ⇄ Bruno Matias

Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira Yellow Card

81' ▮

Maycon ⇄ Kevin Castaño

81' ⇄

⇄ 82'

Bruno Pacheco ⇄ Fernando

⇄ 82'

Giovanni Augusto ⇄ Miguel Carvalho

⇄ 88'

Yago Felipe ⇄ David Antunes

▮ 90'

Fernando Yellow Card

FT 1–1

Atletico-MG

Match Stats

Chapecoense-sc

66% Ball Possession 34%

26 Total Shots 7

11 Shots on Goal 1

10 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 3

19 Shots insidebox 5

7 Shots outsidebox 2

11 Corner Kicks 2

3 Offsides 0

11 Fouls 11

2 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

0 Goalkeeper Saves 8

651 Total passes 349

580 Passes accurate 283

10 Free Kicks 10

Atletico-MG

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Mateo Cassierra F	8.2	32'	1	–	2	8 (6%)	–
2 Natanael D	7.4	90'	–	–	5	50 (49%)	3
7 Fred M	7.2	90'	–	–	2	92 (84%)	–
28 Tomás Cuello M	7.2	90'	–	–	7	36 (29%)	1
11 Bernard M	7.1	90'	–	–	2	77 (61%)	2
6 Renan Lodi D	7.0	32'	–	–	1	22 (21%)	–
15 Kevin Castaño M	6.9	9'	–	–	–	27 (26%)	–
8 Maycon M	6.9	81'	–	–	1	78 (72%)	1
36 Kauã Pascini D	6.8	58'	–	–	1	38 (35%)	1
92 Dudu F	6.7	32'	–	–	1	25 (23%)	–
14 Vitor Hugo D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	64 (61%)	1
27 Alan Minda F	6.5	58'	–	–	2	11 (8%)	1
40 Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	55 (50%)	1
5 Alexsander M	6.3	58'	–	–	1	44 (34%)	1
1 Gabriel Delfim G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	–

Chapecoense-sc

Player statistics not available.

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Confidence Medium (69%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Atletico-MG gewinnt oder unentschieden

Most likely score

2:0 · 13.1%

Both teams to score

47%

Over 2.5 goals

55%

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Atletico-MG

DWLLW

Chapecoense-sc

DLWLW

Last 3 meetings Atletico-MG · 1W 2D 0L

Live insights

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 66.5%. Late goal chance: 36.4%.

69' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 56.1%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Chapecoense-sc leads. Win probability: 47%. Over 0.5 more goals: 75.8%.

44' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 0-1. Chapecoense-sc win: 46.5%. BTTS: 67.5%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

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Independent

Home

69%

45%

Draw

21%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Chapecoense-sc goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	1
1	11	10	3	1
2	13	10	4	1
3	10	7	3	1
4	5	4	1
5	2	2	1

↑ Atletico-MG goals · most likely 2–0 (13.1%)

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

69%

Draw

21%

Away Win

10%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

45% Home Win by 2+ 3% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Home Scores More 21% Equal Goals 10% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

20%

1.5

80%

45%

2.5

55%

68%

3.5

32%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS No 47% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	2.9%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%
1	10.8%	10.0%	3.3%	0.8%	0.2%
2	13.1%	9.7%	3.6%	0.9%	0.2%
3	9.6%	7.1%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%
4	5.3%	3.9%	1.5%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

86%

2.5

14%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

29%

34%

24%

10%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

49%

1.5

51%

77%

2.5

23%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

20%

29%

28%

15%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico-MG	Draw	Chapecoense-sc
Atletico-MG	47.8%	3.5%	0.9%
Draw	20.6%	12.9%	4.9%
Chapecoense-sc	2.1%	2.5%	4.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

37%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico-MG vs Chapecoense-sc

1 Atletico-MG Wins

2 Draws

0 Chapecoense-sc Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
02 Apr 2026	Chapecoense-sc	0 - 4	Atletico-MG
06 Oct 2021	Chapecoense-sc	2 - 2	Atletico-MG
21 Jun 2021	Atletico-MG	1 - 1	Chapecoense-sc

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Atletico-MG — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Fluminense	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	2 - 0
02 Sep	H Cruzeiro	W	2 - 1

Chapecoense-sc — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Atletico-MG	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Internacional	L	1 - 2
06 Sep	A Corinthians	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	A Gremio	L	3 - 1
23 Aug	H Sao Paulo	W	1 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Chapecoense-sc

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Rafael Lacerda

98 Anderson

91 Pacheco

3 Doma

21 Gomes

23 Dudu

88 Felipe

27 Camilo

31 Garcez

10 Augusto

7 Marcinho

9 Oliveira

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	Anderson	G
23	Dudu	D
21	Kauan Faria Gomes	D
3	Doma	D
91	Bruno Pacheco	D
27	Camilo	M
88	Yago Felipe	M
7	Marcinho	M
10	Giovanni Augusto	M
31	Garcez	M
9	Tulio Eduardo Silva De Oliveira	F

Substitutes

70	Rubens	M
15	Rafael Thyere	D
12	Fernando	D
19	David Antunes	M
80	Miguel Carvalho	M
16	Bruno Matias	M
77	D. Borrero	F
11	Y. Bolasie	F
30	Matheus Aurélio	G
55	Rosivan Macedo Soares	M

Atletico-MG

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: E. Domínguez

1 Delfim

36 Pascini

14 Hugo

40 Vitão

2 Natanael

5 Alexsander

8 Maycon

11 Bernard

7 Fred

28 Cuello

27 Minda

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Gabriel Delfim	G
2	Natanael	D
40	Vitão	D
14	Vitor Hugo	D
36	K. Pascini	D
8	Maycon	M
5	Alexsander	M
28	T. Cuello	M
7	Fred	M
11	Bernard	M
27	A. Minda	F

Substitutes

15	K. Castaño	M
9	M. Cassierra	F
39	Mamady Cisse	M
21	A. Franco	M
6	Renan Lodi	D
92	Dudu	F
31	Robert	G
23	A. Preciado	D
25	T. Pérez	M
17	Igor Gomes	M
13	Lyanco	D
3	Léo Duarte	D