Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo Prognose

Serie A · Regular Season - 27

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Palmeiras

Home

2 : 0

HT 1 - 0

Sao Paulo

Away

KI-Tipp Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Palmeiras

60%

26%

13%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Palmeiras vs. Sao Paulo Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Palmeiras eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 60%, für Sao Paulo 13% und für ein Unentschieden 26%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 12 Sep 2026, 23:29.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 74%
Über 1,5 Tore 71%

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Timeline

▮ 12'

Pablo Maia Yellow Card

🖵 38'

Luis Osorio Card upgrade confirmed

▮ 39'

Luis Osorio Red Card

Joaquín Piquerez ⇄ Arthur Gabriel

45' ⇄

Agustín Giay ⇄ Khellven

45' ⇄

⇄ 45'

Cauly ⇄ Robert Arboleda

Murilo

45+1' ⚽ 1–0

Gustavo Gómez Yellow Card

45+4' ▮

Agustín Giay Yellow Card

45+5' ▮

HT 1–0

Vitor Roque assist: Khellven

50' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 64'

André Silva ⇄ Artur

⇄ 64'

Wendell ⇄ Iago Borduchi

⇄ 64'

Djhordney Ferreira ⇄ Danielzinho

Lucas Evangelista ⇄ Luis Pacheco

67' ⇄

Jhon Arias ⇄ Felipe Anderson

67' ⇄

Murilo Yellow Card

76' ▮

⇄ 76'

Ferreirinha

José Manuel López ⇄ Larson

77' ⇄

Larson Yellow Card

85' ▮

FT 2–0

Palmeiras

Match Stats

Sao Paulo

58% Ball Possession 42%

19 Total Shots 8

7 Shots on Goal 2

9 Shots off Goal 2

3 Blocked Shots 4

12 Shots insidebox 4

7 Shots outsidebox 4

9 Corner Kicks 6

3 Offsides 0

21 Fouls 12

4 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

2 Goalkeeper Saves 5

527 Total passes 400

458 Passes accurate 335

12 Free Kicks 21

Palmeiras

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Vitor Roque F	7.9	90'	1	–	4	18 (15%)	–
3 Bruno Fuchs D	7.8	90'	–	–	–	64 (57%)	3
26 Murilo D	7.7	90'	1	–	2	66 (54%)	1
1 Carlos Miguel G	7.3	90'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	–
8 Andreas Pereira M	7.3	90'	–	–	–	78 (71%)	1
50 Luis Pacheco M	7.2	23'	–	–	–	22 (21%)	–
15 Gustavo Gómez D	7.1	90'	–	–	2	56 (49%)	–
12 Khellven D	7.1	44'	–	1	–	17 (14%)	1
22 Joaquín Piquerez M	7.0	46'	–	–	2	16 (14%)	–
56 Arthur Gabriel D	7.0	44'	–	–	1	12 (9%)	1
4 Agustín Giay M	6.9	46'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	–
30 Lucas Evangelista M	6.9	67'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	2
7 Felipe Anderson M	6.9	23'	–	–	–	22 (18%)	2
48 Larson M	6.7	13'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	–
42 José Manuel López M	6.6	77'	–	–	6	24 (18%)	–
11 Jhon Arias M	6.6	67'	–	–	1	26 (23%)	–

Sao Paulo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Ferreirinha M	7.2	76'	–	–	1	29 (25%)	1
31 Carlos Coronel G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	36 (18%)	–
48 Djhordney Ferreira M	6.8	64'	–	–	–	25 (23%)	2
17 André Silva F	6.7	64'	–	–	1	12 (8%)	2
2 Rafael Tolói D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	43 (39%)	2
37 Artur F	6.6	26'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	2
29 Pablo Maia M	6.5	90'	–	–	2	63 (62%)	1
12 Iago Borduchi D	6.4	26'	–	–	–	12 (11%)	3
5 Robert Arboleda D	6.4	44'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	2
Seamus Maughan	6.3	14'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
80 Cauly M	6.2	46'	–	–	1	20 (15%)	1
94 Danielzinho M	6.1	26'	–	–	–	19 (16%)	1
27 Victor Sá D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	29 (24%)	2
18 Wendell D	6.0	64'	–	–	2	16 (14%)	2
28 Newton D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	44 (37%)	–
54 Luis Osorio D	5.1	39'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	–

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Confidence Medium (60%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Schwieriger Sieg oder Unentschieden für Palmeiras

Most likely score

1:0 · 14%

Both teams to score

43%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Palmeiras

DWWDD

Sao Paulo

WDLLW

Last 3 meetings Palmeiras · 3W 0D 0L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

60%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

13%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Sao Paulo goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	5	2	1
1	14	12	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	8	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Palmeiras goals · most likely 1–0 (14.0%)

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Players in form

Palmeiras

J. López 8 gls

Maurício 7 gls

Sao Paulo

Luciano 8 gls

J. Calleri 8 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

60%

Draw

26%

Away Win

13%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

82% Home (No Draw) 18% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 13% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

57% BTTS No 43% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.3%	4.8%	2.2%	0.5%	0.1%
1	14.0%	12.2%	3.8%	0.9%	0.2%
2	13.3%	9.3%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
3	7.7%	5.4%	1.9%	0.4%	0.1%
4	3.3%	2.3%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

72%

1.5

28%

92%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

37%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Palmeiras	Draw	Sao Paulo
Palmeiras	37.6%	3.4%	0.8%
Draw	22.2%	17.6%	6.4%
Sao Paulo	2.1%	3.1%	6.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Palmeiras vs Sao Paulo

3 Palmeiras Wins

0 Draws

0 Sao Paulo Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Mar 2026	Sao Paulo	0 - 1	Palmeiras
01 Mar 2026	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Sao Paulo
05 Oct 2025	Sao Paulo	2 - 3	Palmeiras

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Palmeiras — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Gremio	D	0 - 0
12 Sep	H Sao Paulo	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	H LDU de Quito	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Botafogo	D	0 - 0
03 Sep	A Santos	D	0 - 0

Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Internacional	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Palmeiras	L	2 - 0
09 Sep	A Boca Juniors	L	1 - 0
05 Sep	H Atletico-MG	W	2 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Palmeiras

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Abel Ferreira

1 Miguel

3 Fuchs

15 Gómez

26 Murilo

22 Piquerez

30 Evangelista

8 Pereira

4 Giay

42 López

11 Arias

9 Roque

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Carlos Miguel	G
26	Murilo	D
15	G. Gómez	D
3	Bruno Fuchs	D
4	A. Giay	M
8	Andreas Pereira	M
30	Lucas Evangelista	M
22	J. Piquerez	M
11	J. Arias	M
42	J. López	M
9	Vitor Roque	F

Substitutes

39	Heittor	F
56	Arthur	D
12	Khellven	D
48	Larson	M
29	M. C. Bilong	F
7	Felipe Anderson	M
14	Marcelo Lomba	G
45	Erick Machado	M
32	E. Martínez	M
21	Bruno Bertinato	G
50	Luis Felipe	M
43	Benedetti	D

Sao Paulo

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Dorival Júnior

31 Coronel

18 Wendell

54 Luis

2 Tolói

28 Newton

27 Sá

11 Ferreira

29 Maia

48 Ferreira

80 Cauly

17 Silva

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Carlos Coronel	G
27	Victor Sá	D
28	Newton	D
2	R. Tolói	D
54	Osorio Luis	D
18	Wendell	D
80	Cauly	M
48	D. Ferreira	M
29	Pablo Maia	M
11	Ferreira	M
17	André Silva	F

Substitutes

43	G. Santana	F
34	Tetê	F
12	Iago	D
53	Isac	D
9	J. Calleri	F
19	Lucas Ramon	D
8	Marcos Antônio	M
46	Pedro Ferreira	M
23	Rafael	G
5	R. Arboleda	D
37	Artur	F
94	Danielzinho	M