Sassuolo vs Lecce Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 37

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Lecce

Away

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59%

28%

13%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Sassuolo vs Lecce prediction: Sportiko gives Sassuolo a 59% chance of winning, Lecce 13% and the draw 28%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lecce pulled off a stunning upset at the Mapei Stadium, defeating Sassuolo 2–3 despite the hosts dominating possession with 74% of the ball. Walid Cheddira was the architect of the victory, opening the scoring in the 14th minute before adding a second just eleven minutes later. Sassuolo responded quickly through Armand Laurienté in the 20th minute, but Lecce's two-goal cushion at half-time gave them a platform to defend.

The second half saw Sassuolo push hard to claw back the deficit, and Andrea Pinamonti reduced the arrears in the 82nd minute to set up a tense finale. However, Nikola Štulić extinguished any hopes of a home comeback with a decisive third goal in the 90th minute, sealing a remarkable away win. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Sassuolo victory as the most likely outcome at 59%, a call that proved well wide of the mark.

Sassuolo's expected goals figure of 2.02 reflected their territorial dominance, yet Lecce's clinical finishing — converting chances worth just 0.86 xG into three goals — ultimately told the story of the evening.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 14'

Walid Cheddira

Armand Laurienté assist: Pedro Felipe

20' ⚽ 1–1

⚽ 1–2 25'

Walid Cheddira assist: Lameck Banda

HT 1–2

▮ 54'

Ylber Ramadani Yellow Card

M'Bala Nzola ⇄ Andrea Pinamonti

63' ⇄

Nemanja Matić ⇄ Luca Lipani

63' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Lameck Banda ⇄ Gaby Jean

Domenico Berardi ⇄ Cristian Volpato

72' ⇄

Ismael Koné ⇄ Darryl Bakola

72' ⇄

Tarik Muharemović Yellow Card

77' ▮

⇄ 79'

Santiago Pierotti ⇄ Omri Gandelman

⇄ 80'

Walid Cheddira ⇄ Francesco Camarda

▮ 81'

Danilo Veiga Yellow Card

Andrea Pinamonti assist: Ulisses Garcia

82' ⚽ 2–2

▮ 85'

Tiago Gabriel Yellow Card

⇄ 85'

Danilo Veiga ⇄ Konan N'Dri

⇄ 85'

Ylber Ramadani ⇄ Nikola Štulić

Armand Laurienté ⇄ Christian Frangella

88' ⇄

⚽ 2–3 90'

Nikola Štulić assist: Omri Gandelman

▮ 90+1'

Antonino Gallo Yellow Card

FT 2–3

Sassuolo

Match Stats

Lecce

74% Ball Possession 26%

2.02 Expected Goals (xG) 0.86

15 Total Shots 11

6 Shots on Goal 6

6 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 1

12 Shots insidebox 9

3 Shots outsidebox 2

2 Corner Kicks 8

2 Offsides 2

7 Fouls 13

1 Yellow Cards 4

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

634 Total passes 208

547 Passes accurate 141

86% Passes % 68%

-0.14 goals_prevented -0.14

Sassuolo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
45 Armand Laurienté F	9.2	88'	1	–	4	59 (51%)	3
99 Andrea Pinamonti F	8.0	27'	1	–	3	5 (4%)	–
90 Ismael Koné M	7.2	72'	–	–	1	54 (50%)	1
10 Domenico Berardi F	7.2	72'	–	–	1	33 (27%)	–
50 Darryl Bakola M	7.0	18'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	3
35 Luca Lipani M	6.9	27'	–	–	–	16 (13%)	1
66 Pedro Felipe D	6.9	90'	–	1	–	78 (72%)	2
42 Kristian Thorstvedt M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	49 (43%)	–
18 Nemanja Matić M	6.6	63'	–	–	–	54 (48%)	1
33 Christian Frangella M	6.5	9'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	–
80 Tarik Muharemović D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	92 (84%)	–
7 Cristian Volpato M	6.3	18'	–	–	1	15 (13%)	–
13 Stefano Turati G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	23 (14%)	–
23 Ulisses Garcia D	6.2	90'	–	1	–	74 (59%)	1
25 Woyo Coulibaly D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	43 (38%)	2
8 M'Bala Nzola F	6.2	63'	–	–	1	13 (10%)	–

Lecce

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
99 Walid Cheddira F	9.5	80'	2	–	3	9 (7%)	1
9 Nikola Štulić F	7.2	12'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
30 Wladimiro Falcone G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	20 (6%)	–
16 Omri Gandelman M	6.9	11'	–	1	–	4 (3%)	1
17 Danilo Veiga D	6.7	85'	–	–	–	24 (16%)	2
19 Lameck Banda M	6.7	63'	–	1	2	8 (5%)	–
20 Ylber Ramadani M	6.6	85'	–	–	1	21 (14%)	2
50 Santiago Pierotti M	6.6	79'	–	–	1	12 (10%)	1
44 Tiago Gabriel D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	17 (12%)	1
79 Oumar Ngom M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	2
22 Francesco Camarda F	6.3	10'	–	–	1	5 (3%)	–
5 Jamil Siebert D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	20 (10%)	1
11 Konan N'Dri F	6.2	12'	–	–	1	2 (2%)	–
29 Lassana Coulibaly M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	–
18 Gaby Jean D	6.2	27'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
25 Antonino Gallo D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	18 (12%)	–

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Confidence Medium (53%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

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Sassuolo

LDWLL

Lecce

DDWWL

Last 3 meetings Sassuolo · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash on May 17, 2026, Sassuolo will host Lecce at the Mapei Stadium. Sassuolo has demonstrated a strong home advantage, with a win rate exceeding 60% in their last 10 home matches. Conversely, Lecce has struggled on the road, securing only 25% of their away points this season. Key players to watch include Sassuolo’s top scorer, who has netted 15 goals, and Lecce’s midfielder, who leads in assists. This match could be pivotal for both teams, with Sassuolo seeking to solidify their mid-table position while Lecce fights to avoid relegation.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lecce goals →

	0	1	2
0	16	7	2
1	22	10	2
2	15	7	2
3	7	3	1
4	2	1
5	1

↑ Sassuolo goals · most likely 1–0 (22.1%)

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Head to Head: Sassuolo vs Lecce

0 Sassuolo Wins

2 Draws

1 Lecce Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
18 Oct 2025	Lecce	0 - 0	Sassuolo
21 Apr 2024	Sassuolo	0 - 3	Lecce
06 Oct 2023	Lecce	1 - 1	Sassuolo

See all 7 meetings — Premium

Sassuolo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
05 Aug	H Celta Vigo	L	1 - 4
31 Jul	H Folgore Caratese	D	0 - 0
22 Jul	H Padova	W	2 - 1
24 May	A Parma	L	1 - 0
17 May	H Lecce	L	2 - 3

Lecce — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	H Istra 1961	D	2 - 2
22 Jul	H FC Politehnica Timisoara	D	0 - 0
24 May	H Genoa	W	1 - 0
17 May	A Sassuolo	W	2 - 3
09 May	H Juventus	L	0 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Bologna	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cagliari	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Como	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Fiorentina	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Frosinone	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Genoa	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Inter	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Juventus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lazio	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Lecce	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	AC Milan	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Monza	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Napoli	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Parma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	AS Roma	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Sassuolo	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Torino	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	Udinese	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Venezia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Sassuolo

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Fabio Grosso

13 Turati

23 Garcia

80 Muharemovic

66 Felipe

25 Coulibaly

90 Kone

18 Matic

42 Thorstvedt

45 Lauriente

8 Nzola

10 Berardi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	S. Turati	G
25	W. Coulibaly	D
66	Pedro Felipe	D
80	T. Muharemovic	D
23	U. Garcia	D
42	K. Thorstvedt	M
18	N. Matic	M
90	I. Kone	M
10	D. Berardi	F
8	M. Nzola	F
45	A. Lauriente	F

Substitutes

49	A. Muric	G
12	G. Satalino	G
16	G. Zacchi	G
99	A. Pinamonti	F
24	L. Moro	F
20	A. Fadera	F
7	C. Volpato	M
35	L. Lipani	M
50	D. Bakola	M
3	J. Doig	D
44	E. Iannoni	M
33	C. Frangella	M
31	T. Macchioni	D

Lecce

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Eusebio Di Francesco

30 Falcone

25 Gallo

44 Gabriel

5 Siebert

17 Veiga

79 Ngom

20 Ramadani

19 Banda

29 Coulibaly

50 Pierotti

99 Cheddira

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
30	W. Falcone	G
17	D. Veiga	D
5	J. Siebert	D
44	Tiago Gabriel	D
25	A. Gallo	D
20	Y. Ramadani	M
79	O. Ngom	M
50	S. Pierotti	M
29	L. Coulibaly	M
19	L. Banda	M
99	W. Cheddira	F

Substitutes

1	C. Fruchtl	G
32	J. Samooja	G
14	T. J. Helgason	M
36	F. Marchwinski	M
16	O. Gandelman	M
6	A. Sala	M
8	S. Fofana	M
28	O. Gorter	M
22	F. Camarda	F
3	C. Ndaba	D
11	K. Ndri	F
18	G. Jean	D
9	N. Stulic	F
4	K. Gaspar	D
13	M. Perez	D