Čelik vs Velež Prognose

Premijer Liga · Regular Season - 4

Post on X

Velež

Away

Stadion Bilino Polje, Zenica

KI-Tipp Čelik oder Unentschieden

35%

32%

33%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Čelik vs. Velež Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Čelik eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 35%, für Velež 33% und für ein Unentschieden 32%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 28 Aug 2026, 20:03.

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1st Half Draw or Away 74%

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Timeline

Yellow Card

9' ▮

▮ 18'

Yellow Card

28' ⚽ 1–0

43' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

⇄ 46'

⇄ 60'

63' ⚽ 3–0

65' ⇄

▮ 66'

Yellow Card

⇄ 77'

77' ⇄

85' ⇄

Yellow Card

90+2' ▮

Red Card

90+4' ▮

FT 3–0

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Confidence Low (35%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Čelik oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 15.3%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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Čelik

DWLDW

Velež

LWLDL

Match summary

In the upcoming Premijer Liga clash, Čelik faces Velež, with both teams looking to secure crucial points early in the season. Čelik has shown a solid defensive record, conceding an average of 1.2 goals per match in the last season, while Velež has struggled with away form, winning only 30% of their matches on the road. Key players to watch include Čelik's leading scorer from last season, who averaged 0.5 goals per game, and Velež's playmaker, who contributed significantly to their attack with an average of 2 key passes per match. This match could hinge on Čelik's ability to convert chances against Velež's defense, which has been inconsistent.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

35%

10%

Draw

32%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Velež goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	15	12	7	2	1
1	12	15	7	2	1
2	7	7	3	1
3	2	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Čelik goals · most likely 1–1 (15.3%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

35%

Away Win

33%

Draw

32%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

95%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

35%

Away Win

33%

Draw

32%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

50% Home (No Draw) 50% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

13% Home Win by 2+ 13% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

34% Equal Goals 33% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

15%

0.5

85%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

95%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

15%

23%

29%

18%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	15.2%	11.7%	6.7%	2.2%	0.6%
1	11.8%	15.3%	6.8%	2.3%	0.6%
2	6.8%	6.8%	3.4%	1.1%	0.3%
3	2.3%	2.3%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
4	0.6%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

34%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Čelik	Draw	Velež
Čelik	19.9%	4.6%	1.6%
Draw	13.2%	24.0%	14.8%
Velež	1.2%	3.6%	17.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

90%

1.5

10%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Čelik vs Velež

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Čelik — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	D	1 - 1
11 Sep	H Radnik Bijeljina	W	3 - 2
05 Sep	A BSK Banja Luka	L	3 - 2
01 Sep	A Sloga Doboj	D	0 - 0
28 Aug	H Velež	W	3 - 0

Velež — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Zrinjski	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H FK Sarajevo	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	L	3 - 1
02 Sep	H Radnik Bijeljina	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	A Čelik	L	3 - 0

Premijer Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Zrinjski	8	7	0	1	17	5	+12	21
2	Borac Banja Luka	8	6	1	1	15	7	+8	19
3	FK Sarajevo	8	4	1	3	6	5	+1	13
4	Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	8	3	3	2	10	9	+1	12
5	Siroki Brijeg	8	2	3	3	10	11	-1	9
6	Sloga Doboj	8	2	3	3	5	8	-3	9
7	Čelik	8	2	2	4	11	12	-1	8
8	BSK Banja Luka	8	2	2	4	12	14	-2	8
9	Velež	8	2	1	5	6	14	-8	7
10	Radnik Bijeljina	8	0	4	4	12	19	-7	4

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.