Ajax vs Excelsior Prognose

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 7

Post on X

Excelsior

Away

Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam

KI-Tipp Ajax gewinnt oder unentschieden

73%

17%

11%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Ajax vs. Excelsior Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Ajax eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 73%, für Excelsior 11% und für ein Unentschieden 17%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 19 Sep 2026, 19:55.

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Über 2,5 Tore 73%

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Timeline

Caio Henrique ⇄ Owen Wijndal

23' ⇄

Julian Brandt assist: Kasper Dolberg

32' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 35'

Jan Plug Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 45+1'

Lennard Hartjes

HT 1–1

Viktor Tsygankov ⇄ Oliver Valaker Edvardsen

61' ⇄

⚽ 1–2 62'

Aymen Sliti assist: Irakli Yegoian

Kasper Dolberg ⇄ Tolu Arokodare

62' ⇄

Tolu Arokodare assist: Oscar Gloukh

64' ⚽ 2–2

⇄ 65'

Eric da Silva Moreira ⇄ K. Bos

⇄ 71'

Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson ⇄ Ilano Silva Timas

⇄ 71'

Aymen Sliti ⇄ Alireza Jahanbakhsh

Jorthy Mokio ⇄ Sofyan Amrabat

76' ⇄

Davy Klaassen ⇄ Abdellah Ouazane

77' ⇄

Oscar Gloukh Yellow Card

85' ▮

▮ 85'

Irakli Yegoian Yellow Card

⇄ 85'

David Garden ⇄ Mario Domínguez

FT 2–2

Ajax

Match Stats

Excelsior

81% Ball Possession 19%

33 Total Shots 4

8 Shots on Goal 2

16 Shots off Goal 1

9 Blocked Shots 1

24 Shots insidebox 4

9 Shots outsidebox 0

9 Corner Kicks 0

3 Offsides 0

6 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

0 Goalkeeper Saves 6

820 Total passes 197

755 Passes accurate 132

12 Free Kicks 5

Ajax

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Julian Brandt M	8.2	90'	1	–	3	76 (68%)	1
99 Tolu Arokodare F	8.2	28'	1	–	9	9 (8%)	–
10 Oscar Gloukh F	7.7	90'	–	1	7	67 (58%)	–
3 Anton Gaaei D	7.5	90'	–	–	5	96 (86%)	4
20 Oliver Valaker Edvardsen F	7.1	29'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
5 Owen Wijndal D	7.0	67'	–	–	–	52 (47%)	–
9 Kasper Dolberg F	6.9	62'	–	1	2	13 (10%)	–
6 Thilo Kehrer D	6.8	90'	–	–	1	140 (137%)	1
15 Youri Baas D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	142 (134%)	1
24 Jorthy Mokio M	6.5	76'	–	–	1	61 (58%)	2
18 Davy Klaassen M	6.4	77'	–	–	2	47 (44%)	2
68 Abdellah Ouazane M	6.4	13'	–	–	2	13 (13%)	–
11 Viktor Tsygankov F	6.3	61'	–	–	1	36 (30%)	–
4 Sofyan Amrabat M	6.2	14'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	1
12 Caio Henrique D	6.1	23'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	–
1 Marc-André Ter Stegen G	6.1	90'	–	–	–	26 (25%)	–

Excelsior

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
7 Aymen Sliti F	8.0	71'	1	–	3	7 (3%)	1
20 Lennard Hartjes M	7.4	90'	1	–	1	18 (15%)	1
1 Stijn van Gassel G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	44 (22%)	–
8 Irakli Yegoian M	6.8	90'	–	1	–	20 (15%)	–
12 K. Bos F	6.8	25'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	1
4 Casper Widell D	6.7	90'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	1
11 Alireza Jahanbakhsh F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
21 Ilano Silva Timas F	6.5	19'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
30 Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson F	6.4	71'	–	–	–	10 (8%)	1
19 David Garden F	6.4	85'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
2 Eric da Silva Moreira D	6.3	65'	–	–	–	18 (13%)	–
14 Jan Plug D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	1
15 Simon Janssen D	6.1	90'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	3
9 Mario Domínguez F	6.1	5'	–	–	–	–	–
3 Rick Meissen M	5.9	90'	–	–	–	22 (14%)	1

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Confidence High (73%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Ajax gewinnt oder unentschieden

Most likely score

2:1 · 9.2%

Both teams to score

62%

Over 2.5 goals

73%

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Ajax

DWWLW

Excelsior

DLDWW

Last 3 meetings Ajax · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Ajax faces Excelsior in a key Eredivisie matchup on September 19, 2026. Historically, Ajax has dominated this fixture, boasting a strong home record and a high attacking output, averaging over 2.5 goals per game this season. Excelsior, while competitive, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals in away matches. Ajax's midfield control and pressing game will likely challenge Excelsior's backline, making it crucial for the visitors to maintain defensive discipline. Overall, Ajax is favored to secure a victory based on recent form and head-to-head statistics.

Live insights

77' time check 80% sure

Min 77: Still level at 2-2. Draw looking likely at 61.2%. Late goal chance: 42.9%.

65' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 2-2. Draw probability: 43.8%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

64' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-2. Excelsior win: 54.4%. BTTS: 100%.

45' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 29.5%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-1. Teams level going into the 2nd half. Home win 2H: 58.5%, Away win 2H: 11.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

73%

45%

Draw

17%

45%

Away

11%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Excelsior goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	3	1	1
1	5	7	3	1
2	9	9	5	2
3	9	9	5	2
4	6	6	3	1
5	4	4	2	1

↑ Ajax goals · most likely 2–1 (9.2%)

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Players in form

Ajax

J. Brandt 4 gls

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

17%

Away Win

11%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

27%

2.5

73%

48%

3.5

52%

69%

4.5

31%

86%

5.5

14%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

17%

Away Win

11%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

87% Home (No Draw) 13% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

52% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 17% Equal Goals 11% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

97%

10%

1.5

90%

27%

2.5

73%

48%

3.5

52%

69%

4.5

31%

86%

5.5

14%

Both Teams To Score

62% BTTS Yes 38% BTTS No

Exact Goals

17%

21%

17%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	3.0%	1.4%	1.2%	0.4%	0.1%
1	5.3%	7.2%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%
2	8.9%	9.2%	4.8%	1.7%	0.4%
3	8.5%	8.9%	4.6%	1.6%	0.4%
4	6.2%	6.4%	3.3%	1.2%	0.3%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ajax	Draw	Excelsior
Ajax	47.8%	2.4%	0.7%
Draw	22.4%	8.7%	3.4%
Excelsior	4.8%	3.7%	6.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

23%

1.5

77%

48%

2.5

52%

73%

3.5

28%

Home Exact Goals

17%

25%

24%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ajax vs Excelsior

0 Ajax Wins

2 Draws

1 Excelsior Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
01 Feb 2026	Excelsior	2 - 2	Ajax
22 Nov 2025	Ajax	1 - 2	Excelsior
24 Apr 2024	Ajax	2 - 2	Excelsior

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Ajax — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Excelsior	D	2 - 2
15 Sep	H Willem II	W	5 - 1
12 Sep	A Fortuna Sittard	W	1 - 5
05 Sep	H PSV Eindhoven	L	1 - 3
30 Aug	A Telstar	W	0 - 4

Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Ajax

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Míchel

1 Stegen

12 Henrique

15 Baas

6 Kehrer

3 Gaaei

8 Brandt

24 Mokio

18 Klaassen

10 Gloukh

9 Dolberg

11 Tsygankov

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	M. ter Stegen	G
3	A. Gaaei	D
6	T. Kehrer	D
15	Y. Baas	D
12	Caio Henrique	D
18	D. Klaassen	M
24	J. Mokio	M
8	J. Brandt	M
11	V. Tsygankov	F
9	K. Dolberg	F
10	O. Gloukh	F

Substitutes

2	Lucas Rosa	D
4	S. Amrabat	M
99	T. Arokodare	F
43	Rayane Bounida	F
20	O. Edvardsen	F
36	D. Janse	D
68	A. Ouazane	M
26	M. Paes	G
38	Marcos Leonardo	F
51	C. Setford	G
21	Jofre Torrents	D
5	O. Wijndal	D

Excelsior

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: R. den Uil

1 Gassel

15 Janssen

14 Plug

4 Widell

2 Moreira

20 Hartjes

3 Meissen

8 Yegoian

30 Þorsteinsson

19 Garden

7 Sliti

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	S. van Gassel	G
2	Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira	D
4	C. Widell	D
14	J. Plug	D
15	S. Janssen	D
8	I. Yegoian	M
3	R. Meissen	M
20	L. Hartjes	M
7	A. Sliti	F
19	D. Garden	F
30	Á. Þorsteinsson	F

Substitutes

16	Celton Biai	G
12	K. Bos	F
24	Giulliano Cairo	M
9	Mario Domínguez	F
28	N. Groen	F
11	A. Jahanbakhsh	F
21	I. Silva Timas	F
18	V. Sulzbacher	M
22	O. Turay	D
6	D. van Vianen	M