Riga vs Vardar Skopje Prognose

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Riga

Home

5 : 2

HT 0 - 1

Hinspiel 3-2 · Gesamt 8-4

Vardar Skopje

Away

KI-Tipp Riga gewinnt oder unentschieden

68%

20%

13%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Riga vs. Vardar Skopje Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Riga eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 68%, für Vardar Skopje 13% und für ein Unentschieden 20%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 29 Jul 2026, 03:20.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Match Report

Vardar Skopje took the lead before half-time and appeared to be in control heading into the break, leaving Riga with work to do in the second half. The Latvian side had shown little in the opening 45 minutes to suggest what was to come.

The second half, however, told an entirely different story. Riga produced a remarkable turnaround, scoring five goals after the interval to run out 5–2 winners and secure their place in the next round. Vardar added a second goal but were ultimately swept aside by a dominant home performance that completely reversed the match's early trajectory.

The final scoreline of 5–2 represented one of the more emphatic comebacks of the qualifying rounds, with Riga's second-half display proving decisive. It is worth noting that our pre-match AI model had rated a Riga win as the most likely outcome at 68%, though that call looked uncertain at the break before the hosts ultimately delivered in convincing fashion.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 17'

▮ 19'

Red Card

⇄ 22'

HT 0–1

⇄ Caio

46' ⇄

B. Musah Yellow Card

56' ▮

O. Galo ⇄ Reginaldo Ramires

65' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 66'

⇄ 69'

▮ 70'

Yellow Card

A. Salazar ⇄ A. Taiwo

75' ⇄

⇄ 84'

A. Taiwo assist: Reginaldo Ramires

87' ⚽ 1–2

⇄ 91'

R. Jurkovskis

91' ⇄

Yellow Card

92' ▮

92' ⚽ 2–2

M. Badamosi ⇄ A. Černomordijs

99' ⇄

⇄ 99'

105' ⚽ 3–2

▮ 105+6'

Yellow Card

Reginaldo Ramires

109' ⚽ 4–2

⇄ K. Wassom

112' ⇄

Caio

117' ⚽ 5–2

FT 5–2

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Confidence Medium (68%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Riga gewinnt oder unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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Riga

WWDDW

Vardar Skopje

WDWWD

Last 1 meetings Riga · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming UEFA Europa Conference League match, Riga faces Vardar Skopje. Riga has shown a strong home record, but this analysis will focus on their recent form and statistics. Vardar Skopje has been consistent in their league, with a solid defensive record. Both teams will need to leverage their strengths; Riga's attacking prowess and Vardar's organized defense will be crucial in determining the outcome. The match promises to be competitive, with tactical adjustments likely to play a key role.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Vardar Skopje goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	2	1
1	10	12	5	1
2	11	10	4	1
3	7	7	3	1
4	4	3	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Riga goals · most likely 1–1 (11.6%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

20%

Away Win

13%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

68%

Draw

20%

Away Win

13%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

80% Home (No Draw) 20% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

37% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Home Scores More 24% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.3%	3.9%	2.4%	0.7%	0.2%
1	10.2%	11.6%	4.6%	1.4%	0.3%
2	11.3%	10.0%	4.5%	1.3%	0.3%
3	7.3%	6.5%	2.9%	0.9%	0.2%
4	3.6%	3.2%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

33%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

55%

1.5

45%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Riga	Draw	Vardar Skopje
Riga	46.3%	5.5%	1.9%
Draw	14.4%	14.5%	7.7%
Vardar Skopje	1.3%	2.2%	6.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

43%

1.5

57%

70%

2.5

30%

88%

3.5

12%

Home Exact Goals

14%

28%

27%

18%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

94%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

41%

37%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Riga vs Vardar Skopje

1 Riga Wins

0 Draws

0 Vardar Skopje Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
22 Jul 2026	Vardar Skopje	2 - 3	Riga

Riga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A FS Jelgava	W	0 - 1
15 Sep	A Super Nova	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	H Auda	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	H BFC Daugavpils	D	1 - 1
03 Sep	A Rīgas FS	W	2 - 3

Vardar Skopje — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Shkëndija Haraçinë	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Bashkimi Kumanovo	D	3 - 3
07 Sep	H Aresimi	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	A Ovce Pole	W	0 - 5
31 Aug	A Tikveš	D	1 - 1

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Riga

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Adrian Gula

91 Orols

22 Diop

17 Salazar

21 Musah

33 Paulo

13 Jurkovskis

7 Aouani

4 Galo

40 Ankrah

8 Augusto

19 Badamosi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
91	Frenks Orols	G
13	Raivis Jurkovskis	D
33	Paulo	D
21	Baba Musah	D
17	Andrés Salazar	D
22	Meïssa Diop	M
8	Iago Siqueira Augusto	M
40	Ahmed Ankrah	M
4	Orlando Galo	M
7	Raki Aouani	M
19	Muhammed Badamosi	F

Substitutes

99	Caio Ferreira	F
10	Reginaldo Ramires	F
25	Abdulrahman Taiwo	F
23	Maksims Tonisevs	D
34	Antonijs Černomordijs	D
5	Karl Gameni Wassom	D
31	Athanasios Papadoudis	G
44	Marcis Kazainis	G
3	Abner	D
11	Brian Peña	M

Vardar Skopje

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Cristian Fabbiani

95 Taleski

3 Manevski

4 Matić

5 Najdovski

21 Jankulov

32 Castañeda

6 Babunski

7 Rodrigues

71 Pires

34 Puleio

9 Omeragikj

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
95	Davor Taleski	G
21	Georgije Jankulov	D
5	Filip Najdovski	D
4	Mislav Matić	D
3	Mihail Manevski	D
6	David Babunski	M
32	Diego Castañeda	M
34	Ian Puleio	M
71	Miguel Pires	M
7	Gerson Rodrigues	F
9	Azer Omeragikj	F

Substitutes

14	Darko Velkovski	D
10	Goran Zakarić	F
23	Filip Duranski	M
27	Filip Cvetkovski	D
22	Dimitar Todorovski	M
49	Dimitar Danev	F
1	Daniel Dikovski	G
18	Nenad Miskovski	D
17	Ediz Spahiu	F
31	Ivo Markovski	F