VPS vs Mariehamn Prognose

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 14

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Mariehamn

Away

Lemonsoft Stadion, Vaasa

KI-Tipp VPS gewinnt

82%

15%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

VPS vs. Mariehamn Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für VPS eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 82%, für Mariehamn 3% und für ein Unentschieden 15%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
Unter 3,5 Tore 75%
Home/Draw & Over 1.5 72%

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Timeline

L. Smyth

3' ⚽ 1–0

32' ⚽ 2–0

HT 2–0

⇄ 63'

J. Muzinga

66' ⇄

⇄ M. Niemi

67' ⇄

⇄ A. Räisänen

67' ⇄

75' ⚽ 3–0

J. Turfkruier ⇄ V. Rönnberg

76' ⇄

⇄ 78'

82' ⇄

assist: V. Rönnberg

90' ⚽ 4–0

FT 4–0

VPS

Match Stats

Mariehamn

46% Ball Possession 54%

10 Total Shots 3

4 Shots on Goal 1

4 Shots off Goal 1

2 Blocked Shots 1

3 Corner Kicks 2

2 Offsides 2

6 Fouls 6

0 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

6 Free Kicks 6

VPS

Player	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
J. Muzinga	4'	–	–	1	1	–
L. Smyth	4'	1	–	1	1 (1%)	1
J. Turfkruier	4'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
M. Haukioja	4'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–
E. Okereke	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
K. Kouassivi-Benissan	4'	–	1	–	1 (1%)	–

Mariehamn

Player	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
A. Larsson	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
L. Andersson	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
M. Hyvönen	4'	–	–	–	–	–
J. van der Heyden	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
E. Patut	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
A. Stroud	4'	–	–	–	–	–
N. Nurmi	4'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	–
A. Soiniemi	4'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
Y. Amankwah	4'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
M. Riikonen	4'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–

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Confidence High (82%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

VPS gewinnt

Most likely score

2:0 · 20.2%

Both teams to score

24%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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VPS

LLWLW

Mariehamn

LWLWW

Match summary

In this Veikkausliiga clash, VPS faces Mariehamn with both teams seeking crucial points. VPS has shown a solid home record, while Mariehamn has struggled on the road, which could impact their performance. Key players to watch include VPS' leading scorer and Mariehamn's playmaker, whose contributions will be vital for their respective sides. Defensive stability will be crucial for both teams, as vulnerabilities could lead to decisive moments in the match. Overall, expect a competitive encounter with tactical battles likely determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Mariehamn goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	2
1	17	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	16	5	1
4	9	3
5	4	1

↑ VPS goals · most likely 2–0 (20.2%)

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Players in form

VPS

L. Smyth 5 gls

Mariehamn

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

82%

Draw

15%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

97% Home (No Draw) 3% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

59% Home Win by 2+ 0% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

82% Home Scores More 15% Equal Goals 3% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

76% BTTS No 24% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

26%

23%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

51% Even Total Goals 49% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.1%	1.6%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%
1	16.7%	5.9%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
2	20.2%	6.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	15.7%	4.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	9.1%	2.7%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

35%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

33%

25%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	VPS	Draw	Mariehamn
VPS	58.0%	1.3%	0.1%
Draw	23.9%	10.9%	1.4%
Mariehamn	1.4%	1.4%	1.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

82%

3.5

18%

Home Exact Goals

10%

23%

27%

21%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: VPS vs Mariehamn

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

VPS — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H KuPS	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Inter Turku	L	1 - 0
08 Sep	H AC Oulu	W	1 - 0
31 Aug	H Lahti	L	0 - 1
22 Aug	A Ilves	W	0 - 1

Mariehamn — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A SJK	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	H Turku PS	W	1 - 0
08 Sep	A Lahti	L	2 - 1
31 Aug	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
23 Aug	A KuPS	W	2 - 4

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

Mariehamn

Coach: Jimmy Wargh

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
32	M. Riikonen	-
3	A. Soiniemi	-
38	Y. Amankwah	-
2	N. Nurmi	-
31	S. Ngulube	-
20	E. Patut	-
18	A. Stroud	-
8	J. Heyden	-
43	L. Andersson	-
64	M. Hyvonen	-
7	A. Larsson	-

Substitutes

1	K. Lund	-
28	J. Nissinen	-
16	A. Huttunen	-
5	T. Koivisto	-
9	W. Nunez	-
23	V. Widlund	-
14	A. Bergvik	-

VPS

Coach: Jussi Nuorela

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
41	M. Jalloh	-
3	R. Simpson	-
6	E. Okereke	-
19	M. Haukioja	-
13	O. Ogunniyi	-
2	L. Mane	-
8	P. Lima	-
7	J. Turfkruier	-
27	K. Kouassivi-Benissan	-
11	J. Muzinga	-
15	L. Smyth	-

Substitutes

1	A. Piispa	-
23	M. Niemi	-
16	R. Forsbacka	-
33	A. Kuek	-
34	A. Raisanen	-
24	Y. Daoussi	-
5	V. Ronnberg	-
35	O. Keturi	-