Tunisia vs Netherlands Prognose

World Cup · Group Stage - 3

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Netherlands

Away

KI-Tipp Netherlands gewinnt oder unentschieden

19%

76%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Tunisia vs. Netherlands Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Tunisia eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 5%, für Netherlands 76% und für ein Unentschieden 19%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Unter 3,5 Tore 76%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Draw/Away & Over 1.5 70%

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Match Report

Netherlands made a blistering start in Dortmund, establishing a commanding lead inside the opening ten minutes. An Ellyes Skhiri own goal opened the scoring in the third minute, and Brian Brobbey doubled the advantage just four minutes later to leave Tunisia with a mountain to climb at half-time.

Tunisia showed more resolve after the break, with Hazem Mastouri pulling one back in the 54th minute to briefly raise hopes of a comeback. However, Jan van Hecke extinguished any Tunisian momentum with a third goal on 62 minutes, effectively sealing the result. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Netherlands victory as most likely at 76%, a call that proved well-founded. Both Mastouri and Brobbey were withdrawn by their respective sides in the closing stages following a flurry of substitutions from both benches.

Netherlands dominated possession throughout, controlling 72% of the ball and registering 20 total attempts to Tunisia's ten. The convincing victory keeps the Dutch firmly on course in the group stage, while Tunisia's hopes of progression look increasingly slim.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 3'

Ellyes Skhiri Own Goal

⚽ 0–2 7'

B. Brobbey assist: V. van Dijk

HT 0–2

Hazem Mastouri assist: Hannibal Mejbri

54' ⚽ 1–2

⚽ 1–3 62'

J. van Hecke assist: T. Reijnders

Rani Khedira ⇄ Mohamed Belhadj Mahmoud

67' ⇄

Anis Ben Slimane ⇄ Elias Achouri

68' ⇄

Amine Ben Hmida ⇄ Mortadha Ben Ouanes

68' ⇄

⇄ 72'

F. de Jong ⇄ T. Koopmeiners

⇄ 72'

T. Reijnders ⇄ J. Kluivert

⇄ 72'

D. Malen ⇄ C. Summerville

Ismael Gharbi ⇄ Firas Chaouat

75' ⇄

⇄ 77'

B. Brobbey ⇄ M. Depay

⇄ 84'

C. Gakpo ⇄ N. Lang

Hazem Mastouri ⇄ Sebastian Tounekti

90' ⇄

FT 1–3

Tunisia

Match Stats

Netherlands

28% Ball Possession 72%

10 Total Shots 20

4 Shots on Goal 7

5 Shots off Goal 8

1 Blocked Shots 5

4 Corner Kicks 6

2 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 10

0 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

4 Goalkeeper Saves 3

9 Free Kicks 11

Tunisia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Hazem Mastouri F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
20 Yan Valery D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	16 (7%)	1
2 Ali Abdi D	6.3	45'	–	–	1	14 (9%)	2
3 Montassar Talbi D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	13 (13%)	1
10 Hannibal Mejbri M	6.2	45'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	1
21 Amine Ben Hmida D	6.1	45'	–	–	–	14 (11%)	–
17 Ellyes Skhiri M	6.1	45'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–
16 Aymen Dahmen G	6.1	45'	–	–	–	14 (8%)	–
25 Anis Ben Slimane M	6.0	45'	–	–	1	7 (4%)	–
11 Ismael Gharbi M	5.9	45'	–	–	2	18 (17%)	1
13 Rani Khedira M	5.8	45'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	1

Netherlands

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 B. Brobbey F	8.1	45'	1	–	2	6 (5%)	1
4 V. van Dijk D	7.6	45'	–	1	–	61 (58%)	1
22 D. Dumfries D	7.5	45'	–	–	2	39 (37%)	–
21 F. de Jong M	7.3	45'	–	–	1	47 (43%)	1
6 J. van Hecke D	7.2	45'	–	–	1	73 (71%)	2
18 D. Malen F	7.2	45'	–	–	2	12 (10%)	–
1 B. Verbruggen G	7.1	45'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
5 N. Aké D	6.9	45'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	–
14 T. Reijnders M	6.8	45'	–	–	1	17 (14%)	–
8 R. Gravenberch M	6.6	45'	–	–	2	26 (22%)	–
11 C. Gakpo F	6.6	45'	–	–	1	10 (8%)	–

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Confidence High (76%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

Netherlands gewinnt oder unentschieden

Most likely score

0:2 · 18.1%

Both teams to score

31%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Tunisia

DLLLD

Netherlands

DDWWD

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 25, Tunisia faces the Netherlands in a pivotal group stage match. The Netherlands, traditionally a strong footballing nation with a robust attacking lineup, will look to capitalize on Tunisia's defensive vulnerabilities. Tunisia, known for their disciplined play and counter-attacking style, will need to effectively manage possession and exploit any gaps left by the Dutch defense. Statistically, the Netherlands has a superior FIFA ranking and recent form, making them the favorites. However, Tunisia's resilience could pose an upset if they can maintain defensive solidity and convert key chances.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Netherlands goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	9	16	18	13	7	3
1	2	8	8	5	3	1
2	1	1	2	1	1
3
4
5

↑ Tunisia goals · most likely 0–2 (18.1%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

19%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

76%

Draw

19%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

94% Away (No Draw) 6% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

52% Away Win by 2+ 1% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

76% Away Scores More 19% Equal Goals 5% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

69% BTTS No 31% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.8%	15.9%	18.1%	13.0%	7.0%
1	2.4%	8.0%	7.6%	5.5%	2.9%
2	0.7%	1.5%	1.6%	1.1%	0.6%
3	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

33%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Tunisia	Draw	Netherlands
Tunisia	2.8%	2.0%	1.7%
Draw	2.5%	13.0%	23.5%
Netherlands	0.3%	1.9%	52.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

66%

28%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

38%

1.5

62%

65%

2.5

35%

85%

3.5

15%

Away Exact Goals

12%

26%

28%

20%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Tunisia vs Netherlands

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Tunisia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Uganda	D	1 - 1
25 Jun	H Netherlands	L	1 - 3
21 Jun	H Japan	L	0 - 4
15 Jun	A Sweden	L	5 - 1
31 Mar	A Canada	D	0 - 0

Netherlands — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
24 Sep	H Germany	D	1 - 1
30 Jun	H Morocco	D	1 - 1
25 Jun	A Tunisia	W	1 - 3
20 Jun	H Sweden	W	5 - 1
14 Jun	H Japan	D	2 - 2

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Netherlands

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Ronald Koeman

1 Verbruggen

5 Aké

4 Dijk

6 Hecke

22 Dumfries

14 Reijnders

21 Jong

8 Gravenberch

11 Gakpo

19 Brobbey

18 Malen

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	B. Verbruggen	G
22	D. Dumfries	D
6	J. van Hecke	D
4	V. van Dijk	D
5	N. Aké	D
8	R. Gravenberch	M
21	F. de Jong	M
14	T. Reijnders	M
18	D. Malen	F
19	B. Brobbey	F
11	C. Gakpo	F

Substitutes

25	J. Hato	D
13	R. Roefs	G
15	M. van de Ven	D
26	Q. Timber	M
12	M. Wieffer	M
24	C. Summerville	F
17	N. Lang	F
2	L. Geertruida	D
7	J. Kluivert	F
16	G. Til	M
20	T. Koopmeiners	M
9	W. Weghorst	F
23	M. Flekken	G
10	M. Depay	F
3	M. de Roon	M

Tunisia

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: David Pagou

16 Dahmen

2 Abdi

21 Hmida

3 Talbi

13 Khedira

20 Valery

11 Gharbi

10 Mejbri

17 Skhiri

25 Slimane

9 Mastouri

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	A. Dahmen	G
20	Y. Valery	D
13	R. Khedira	M
3	M. Talbi	D
21	A. Ben Hmida	D
2	A. Abdi	D
17	E. Skhiri	M
10	H. Mejbri	M
11	Ismaël Gharbi	M
9	H. Mastouri	F
25	A. Ben Slimane	M

Substitutes

22	S. Ben Hsan	G
6	D. Bronn	D
12	M. Ben Ouanes	M
19	F. Chaouat	F
4	O. Rekik	D
7	E. Achouri	M
26	S. Tounekti	F
15	H. Mahmoud	M
1	C. Abdelmouhib	G
8	E. Saad	F
24	R. Chikhaoui	D
14	K. Ayari	F
18	R. Elloumi	F