Leon vs Monterrey Prediction

Liga MX · Apertura - 5

Post on X

Monterrey

Away

AI прогноза Monterrey или равен

31%

26%

43%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Leon vs Monterrey prediction: Sportiko gives Leon a 31% chance of winning, Monterrey 43% and the draw 26%. Last updated 22 Aug 2026, 03:01.

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Домакинът да вкара 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Timeline

Jordi Cortizo assist: Diber Cambindo

24' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 45'

Ricardo Chávez Yellow Card

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Ricardo Chávez ⇄ Luca Orellano

FT 2–0

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Confidence Low (43%)

At a glance

Нашият анализ

Monterrey или равен

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.8%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

57%

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Leon

DWLWL

Monterrey

WDLDL

Last 2 meetings Leon · 0W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX clash, León faces Monterrey, both teams boasting strong attacking units. León has shown a solid home record, averaging 2.1 goals per game at home this season, while Monterrey's away form has been impressive, scoring 1.8 goals per match. Defensively, León has conceded an average of 1.5 goals at home, which could be a concern against Monterrey's potent offense. With both squads in good form, the match promises to be competitive, but León's ability to capitalize on home advantage may play a crucial role in determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

31%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

43%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Monterrey goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	7	7	6	3	1
1	6	13	9	5	2	1
2	5	8	6	3	1
3	2	4	3	2	1
4	1	1	1	1
5

↑ Leon goals · most likely 1–1 (12.8%)

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Players in form

Leon

D. Arcila 4 gls

D. Cambindo 3 gls

Monterrey

L. Ocampos 5 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

43%

Home Win

31%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

56% Away (No Draw) 44% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

21% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Away Scores More 32% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

19%

1.5

81%

43%

2.5

57%

66%

3.5

34%

83%

4.5

17%

93%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

10%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.6%	6.7%	6.5%	3.4%	1.4%
1	5.7%	12.8%	9.0%	4.8%	1.9%
2	5.0%	7.9%	6.3%	3.3%	1.3%
3	2.3%	3.7%	2.9%	1.5%	0.6%
4	0.8%	1.3%	1.0%	0.5%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

28%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leon	Draw	Monterrey
Leon	19.3%	4.7%	2.6%
Draw	11.5%	16.1%	14.4%
Monterrey	2.1%	4.6%	24.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

60%

1.5

40%

84%

2.5

16%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

25%

35%

24%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

78%

1.5

22%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leon vs Monterrey

0 Leon Wins

0 Draws

2 Monterrey Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
15 Feb 2026	Monterrey	1 - 0	Leon
11 Aug 2025	Leon	1 - 3	Monterrey

Leon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	A Club Queretaro	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Atletico San Luis	W	2 - 0
11 Sep	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	L	3 - 1
06 Sep	H Club America	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	A Toluca	L	2 - 0

Monterrey — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Cruz Azul	W	1 - 0
13 Sep	H Tigres UANL	D	0 - 0
07 Sep	A Toluca	L	2 - 0
03 Sep	A Club America	D	2 - 2
31 Aug	H Atletico San Luis	L	1 - 3

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.