Estrela vs Arouca Prediction

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 25

07 Mar 2027, 16:00

Post on X

Arouca

Away

AI прогноза Estrela to win or draw

71%

23%

Победа за домакина Равенство Победа на гостите

Estrela vs Arouca prediction: Sportiko gives Estrela a 71% chance of winning, Arouca 6% and the draw 23%. Last updated 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:0 · 20.6%

Both teams to score

25%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Estrela

LDWDW

Arouca

DLDWL

Last 3 meetings Estrela · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Estrela faces Arouca in a crucial Primeira Liga clash. Estrela has shown a solid home record, averaging 1.5 goals per match at home this season, while Arouca struggles defensively, conceding an average of 1.4 goals per game away. Both teams have fluctuated in form, with Estrela currently sitting mid-table and Arouca battling to avoid relegation. Key players to watch include Estrela's leading scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season, and Arouca's goalkeeper, who has made 70 saves, ranking in the top five for the league. This match could significantly impact both teams' aspirations as the season approaches its climax.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Arouca goals →

	0	1	2
0	13	3	1
1	21	9	1
2	19	7	1
3	11	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Estrela goals · most likely 1–0 (20.6%)

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Players in form

Estrela

A. Marcus 4 gls

L. Antonetti 4 gls

I. Stoica 4 gls

Arouca

Barbero 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

71%

Draw

23%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

92% Home (No Draw) 8% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

43% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

71% Home Scores More 23% Equal Goals 6% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

37%

1.5

63%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

75% BTTS No 25% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

13%

24%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.3%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%	0.0%
1	20.6%	8.6%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.9%	6.6%	1.2%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.0%	3.9%	0.7%	0.1%	0.0%
4	4.8%	1.7%	0.3%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

39%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

35%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Estrela	Draw	Arouca
Estrela	46.4%	1.9%	0.2%
Draw	24.4%	17.7%	2.9%
Arouca	1.3%	2.0%	3.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

70%

25%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Estrela vs Arouca

1 Estrela Wins

0 Draws

2 Arouca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Apr 2026	Arouca	1 - 0	Estrela
07 Dec 2025	Estrela	3 - 1	Arouca
19 Apr 2025	Arouca	1 - 0	Estrela

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Estrela — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Academico Viseu	L	0 - 2
14 Sep	A Rio Ave	D	3 - 3
10 Sep	H SC Braga	W	2 - 1
05 Sep	H Famalicao	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	A Nacional	W	2 - 3

Arouca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Sporting CP	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Santa Clara	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Estoril	D	0 - 0
29 Aug	H Maritimo	W	2 - 1
23 Aug	A FC Porto	L	2 - 0

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.