Atalanta vs Parma Previsione
Pronostico Atalanta vs Parma: Sportiko assegna a Atalanta una probabilità di vittoria del 64%, a Parma del 15% e al pareggio del 21%. Ultimo aggiornamento 2 Nov 2026, 21:38.
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Match Report
Atalanta suffered a stunning home defeat to Parma in Serie A Matchday 10, going down 3–0 despite dominating possession and creating the better chances throughout. Giovanni Fabbian broke the deadlock just before half-time, giving the visitors a lead their underlying numbers barely supported, with Atalanta's expected goals figure of 3.17 dwarfing Parma's 0.36 at the final whistle.
The second half brought no relief for the hosts. Two minutes after the restart, Davide Zappacosta turned the ball into his own net to double Parma's advantage, and Simone Lontani added a third on 58 minutes to effectively end the contest. Atalanta's 70% possession and 20 total shots counted for nothing as Parma's clinical counter-attacking proved devastating.
It was a result that defied the pre-match numbers — our AI model had rated an Atalanta win most likely at 64%, a call that proved emphatically wrong. Atalanta's heavy rotation of substitutes in the final quarter suggested an early acceptance of defeat, leaving Parma to claim a thoroughly unexpected three points on the road.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Atalanta
Match Stats
Atalanta
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 40 Relja Obrić D | 7.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 56 (51%) | 5 |
| 59 Nicola Zalewski M | 6.7 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 53 (43%) | 2 |
| 7 Kamaldeen Sulemana F | 6.6 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 17 (15%) | – |
| 42 Giorgio Scalvini D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 95 (90%) | 1 |
| 99 Eljif Elmas M | 6.5 | 28' | – | – | – | 36 (34%) | 1 |
| 8 Mario Pašalić M | 6.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 64 (56%) | – |
| 11 Jonathan Rowe M | 6.4 | 67' | – | – | 3 | 18 (16%) | – |
| 17 Charles De Ketelaere M | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 4 | 49 (37%) | 1 |
| 47 Lorenzo Bernasconi D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 62 (57%) | – |
| 13 Éderson M | 6.2 | 62' | – | – | 1 | 46 (41%) | 2 |
| 10 Lazar Samardžić M | 6.0 | 14' | – | – | 1 | 17 (17%) | – |
| 90 Nikola Krstović F | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 6 | 13 (8%) | – |
| 41 J. Idele M | 5.8 | 14' | – | – | – | 16 (16%) | – |
| 29 Marco Carnesecchi G | 5.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (17%) | – |
| 77 Davide Zappacosta D | 5.2 | 76' | – | – | – | 94 (86%) | 2 |
Parma
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 80 Giovanni Fabbian M | 8.6 | 74' | 1 | 1 | 1 | 14 (12%) | 1 |
| 30 Giovanni Daffara G | 8.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 31 (24%) | – |
| 76 Simone Lontani F | 7.9 | 67' | 1 | – | 1 | 12 (8%) | 1 |
| 4 Vincent Sierro M | 7.7 | 89' | – | 1 | – | 36 (29%) | 4 |
| 32 Christian Ordoñez M | 7.4 | 23' | – | – | 1 | 20 (16%) | – |
| 3 Abdoulaye Ndiaye D | 7.3 | 44' | – | – | – | 14 (11%) | 3 |
| 41 Hans Nicolussi Caviglia M | 7.1 | 1' | – | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 72 Dominik Drobnic D | 7.1 | 46' | – | – | – | 13 (10%) | – |
| 20 Matija Frigan F | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 15 Enrico Delprato D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 28 (20%) | 2 |
| 27 Sascha Britschgi M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | – | 28 (25%) | 1 |
| 16 Mandela Keita M | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 24 (20%) | 7 |
| 14 Emanuele Valeri M | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 24 (20%) | 3 |
| 37 Mariano Troilo D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (16%) | 2 |
| 23 Nesta Elphege F | 6.4 | 16' | – | – | – | 9 (9%) | – |
| 19 El Bilal Touré F | 6.3 | 74' | – | – | – | 9 (4%) | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
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N. Krstović
7 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Atalanta vs Parma
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jan 2026 | Atalanta | 4 - 0 | Parma |
| 30 Aug 2025 | Parma | 1 - 1 | Atalanta |
| 25 May 2025 | Atalanta | 2 - 3 | Parma |
Atalanta — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08 Nov | A Monza | W | 0 - 1 |
| 05 Nov | H Kairat Almaty | D | 1 - 1 |
| 02 Nov | H Parma | L | 0 - 3 |
| 29 Oct | A Fiorentina | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Oct | H Frosinone | D | 4 - 4 |
Parma — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H Bologna | L | 1 - 2 |
| 02 Nov | A Atalanta | W | 0 - 3 |
| 28 Oct | H Udinese | D | 0 - 0 |
| 24 Oct | A Lazio | L | 2 - 1 |
| 19 Oct | H Torino | L | 0 - 3 |
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Lazio
|
11 | 9 | 2 | 0 | 25 | 9 | +16 | 29 |
| 2 |
Inter
|
11 | 9 | 1 | 1 | 28 | 13 | +15 | 28 |
| 3 |
AS Roma
|
11 | 8 | 3 | 0 | 31 | 10 | +21 | 27 |
| 4 |
AC Milan
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 13 | +10 | 24 |
| 5 |
Como
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 18 | 10 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |
Frosinone
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 24 | 15 | +9 | 20 |
| 7 |
Juventus
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 12 | +3 | 18 |
| 8 |
Bologna
|
11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 16 | 14 | +2 | 17 |
| 9 |
Cagliari
|
11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 16 |
| 10 |
Napoli
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 18 | 14 | +4 | 15 |
| 11 |
Torino
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 17 | -2 | 14 |
| 12 |
Atalanta
|
11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 17 | 20 | -3 | 14 |
| 13 |
Genoa
|
11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 13 |
| 14 |
Lecce
|
11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 22 | -10 | 10 |
| 15 |
Fiorentina
|
11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 9 |
| 16 |
Parma
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 17 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 |
Sassuolo
|
11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 8 |
| 18 |
Monza
|
11 | 2 | 1 | 8 | 17 | 25 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 |
Venezia
|
11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | 8 | 21 | -13 | 6 |
| 20 |
Udinese
|
11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 12 | 25 | -13 | 5 |
Atalanta
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: M. Sarri
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 29 | M. Carnesecchi | G |
| 77 | D. Zappacosta | D |
| 42 | G. Scalvini | D |
| 40 | R. ObriÄ | D |
| 47 | L. Bernasconi | D |
| 13 | Éderson | M |
| 8 | Mario Pasalic | M |
| 59 | N. Zalewski | M |
| 17 | C. De Ketelaere | M |
| 11 | J. Rowe | M |
| 90 | N. Krstović | F |
Substitutes
| 99 | E. Elmas | M |
| 41 | J. Idele | M |
| 53 | M. Plaia | D |
| 10 | L. Samardžić | M |
| 51 | M. Sonzogni | G |
| 57 | M. Sportiello | G |
| 7 | K. Sulemana | F |
| 46 | Sergej Levak | M |
Parma
Formation: 3-5-2
Coach: A. Gilardino
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | G. Daffara | G |
| 15 | E. Del Prato | D |
| 37 | M. Troilo | D |
| 72 | D. Drobnic | D |
| 27 | S. Britschgi | M |
| 80 | G. Fabbian | M |
| 4 | V. Sierro | M |
| 16 | M. Keita | M |
| 14 | E. Valeri | M |
| 19 | E. Touré | F |
| 76 | S. Lontani | F |
Substitutes
| 8 | B. Cremaschi | M |
| 9 | D. Romero | F |
| 32 | C. Ordoñez | M |
| 41 | H. Nicolussi | M |
| 3 | A. N'Diaye | D |
| 47 | Abdou Konate | M |
| 22 | S. Ghidotti | G |
| 20 | M. Frigan | F |
| 23 | N. Elphege | F |
| 34 | Diego Carlos | D |
| 7 | Ousmane Diallo | F |
| 40 | E. Corvi | G |
| 29 | F. Carboni | D |
| 11 | P. Almqvist | F |