Botafogo vs Fluminense Prediction

Serie A · Regular Season - 22

09 Aug 2026, 00:00

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Fluminense

Away

Llamada IA Botafogo o empate

41%

31%

28%

Victoria local · 2.50 Empate · 3.30 Victoria visitante · 3.30

Botafogo vs Fluminense prediction: Sportiko gives Botafogo a 41% chance of winning, Fluminense 28% and the draw 31%. Last updated 8 Aug 2026, 08:01.

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At a glance

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

35%

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Botafogo

WDWLD

Fluminense

LDDDD

Last 3 meetings Botafogo · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Serie A clash, Botafogo faces off against Fluminense in a highly anticipated derby. Botafogo has shown solid form this season, particularly in their attacking play, averaging 1.9 goals per match. Conversely, Fluminense has been strong defensively, conceding only 0.9 goals per match, which could pose challenges for Botafogo's offense. The match promises to be competitive, as both teams have key players capable of influencing the outcome, making tactical adjustments crucial. Expect a tightly contested battle with potential playoff implications.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

41%

45%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

28%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Fluminense goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	14	9	4	1
1	14	15	6	2
2	10	8	3	1
3	4	3	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Botafogo goals · most likely 1–1 (14.8%)

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Players in form

Botafogo

Danilo Santos 7 gls

Arthur Cabral 7 gls

Fluminense

John Kennedy 9 gls

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

31%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

65% Home (No Draw) 35% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

44% Home Scores More 33% Equal Goals 24% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

37%

1.5

63%

65%

2.5

35%

84%

3.5

16%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.1%	8.8%	4.5%	1.3%	0.3%
1	13.7%	14.8%	5.6%	1.6%	0.3%
2	9.5%	8.1%	3.4%	1.0%	0.2%
3	3.9%	3.4%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%
4	1.2%	1.0%	0.4%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

77%

1.5

23%

94%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

43%

34%

17%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Botafogo	Draw	Fluminense
Botafogo	23.4%	3.5%	1.0%
Draw	19.3%	22.7%	10.1%
Fluminense	2.1%	4.4%	13.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

43%

0.5

57%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

43%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Botafogo vs Fluminense

1 Botafogo Wins

0 Draws

2 Fluminense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 Feb 2026	Fluminense	1 - 0	Botafogo
28 Sep 2025	Fluminense	2 - 0	Botafogo
26 Apr 2025	Botafogo	2 - 0	Fluminense

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Botafogo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Jul	A Cruzeiro	W	0 - 1
23 Jul	H Vitoria	D	0 - 0
16 Jul	H Santos	W	2 - 1
30 May	A Bahia	L	2 - 1
23 May	A Sao Paulo	D	1 - 1

Fluminense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	H Vasco DA Gama	L	1 - 3
01 Aug	A Vasco DA Gama	D	0 - 0
30 Jul	H Bahia	D	0 - 0
26 Jul	A Gremio	D	1 - 1
17 Jul	H RB Bragantino	D	1 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Palmeiras	21	14	5	2	38	16	+22	47
2	Flamengo	20	11	6	3	37	18	+19	39
3	Atletico Paranaense	21	11	4	6	28	19	+9	37
4	Fluminense	21	9	7	5	30	25	+5	34
5	Bahia	21	8	8	5	29	25	+4	32
6	RB Bragantino	20	9	4	7	26	20	+6	31
7	Cruzeiro	21	8	6	7	27	30	-3	30
8	Botafogo	20	8	5	7	34	32	+2	29
9	Corinthians	21	7	8	6	22	20	+2	29
10	Atletico-MG	20	8	4	8	25	25	0	28
11	Coritiba	21	7	6	8	25	28	-3	27
12	Sao Paulo	20	7	5	8	25	23	+2	26
13	Vitoria	21	7	5	9	22	31	-9	26
14	Mirassol	20	6	5	9	23	27	-4	23
15	Santos	20	5	7	8	29	33	-4	22
16	Internacional	21	5	7	9	23	27	-4	22
17	Gremio	20	5	7	8	22	26	-4	22
18	Vasco DA Gama	20	5	6	9	23	31	-8	21
19	Remo	21	5	6	10	24	34	-10	21
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.