Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna Predicción

La Liga · Regular Season - 6

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Osasuna

Away

Llamada IA Atletico Madrid gana o empata

65%

22%

12%

Victoria local Empate Victoria visitante

Predicción Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna: Sportiko le da a Atletico Madrid un 65% de probabilidad de ganar, a Osasuna un 12% y al empate un 22%. Última actualización: 16 Sep 2026, 18:58.

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5 70%
1st Half Over 0.5 70%

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Match Report

Atletico Madrid delivered a commanding performance at home, easing past Osasuna 4-0 in La Liga matchday six. Jonathan David broke the deadlock in the 24th minute to give the hosts a deserved half-time lead, with Atletico's dominance already evident in the statistics.

The second half brought further punishment for Osasuna. Kang-in Lee doubled the advantage nine minutes after the restart, before Robin Le Normand added a third in the 63rd minute to put the result beyond doubt. Alex Baena completed the scoring with an 82nd-minute goal, rounding off a thoroughly one-sided afternoon. The match stats underlined Atletico's total control — 68% possession, 27 total shots to Osasuna's three, and eight corner kicks to none for the visitors. Our pre-match AI model had rated an Atletico win as the most likely outcome at 65%, a call that proved well-founded.

Osasuna offered virtually nothing going forward, managing just one shot on target throughout the ninety minutes. The result keeps Atletico in strong early-season form, while Osasuna will need to regroup significantly ahead of their next fixture.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Jonathan David

24' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

Ademola Lookman Yellow Card

50' ▮

Kang-in Lee assist: Jonathan David

54' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 59'

Jonathan Dubasin ⇄ Kike Barja

⇄ 59'

Raúl Moro ⇄ Rubén García

⇄ 60'

Raúl García de Haro ⇄ Ante Budimir

Robin Le Normand

63' ⚽ 3–0

Cristian Romero ⇄ Marc Pubill

68' ⇄

Jonathan David ⇄ Giuliano Simeone

68' ⇄

Ademola Lookman ⇄ Arnau Ortiz

68' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Iñigo Arguibide ⇄ Jon Moncayola

⇄ 74'

Asier Osambela ⇄ Romain Del Castillo

Alex Baena assist: Johnny Cardoso

82' ⚽ 4–0

Johnny Cardoso ⇄ Morten Hjulmand

85' ⇄

Alejandro Grimaldo ⇄ Dávid Hancko

85' ⇄

▮ 86'

Rubén García Yellow Card

▮ 90+3'

Abel Bretones Yellow Card

FT 4–0

Atletico Madrid

Match Stats

Osasuna

68% Ball Possession 32%

27 Total Shots 3

11 Shots on Goal 1

8 Shots off Goal 1

8 Blocked Shots 1

19 Shots insidebox 3

8 Shots outsidebox 0

8 Corner Kicks 0

1 Offsides 1

7 Fouls 12

1 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 0

1 Goalkeeper Saves 7

656 Total passes 314

580 Passes accurate 232

12 Free Kicks 4

Atletico Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
15 Jonathan David F	8.8	68'	1	1	6	18 (17%)	–
24 Robin Le Normand D	8.5	90'	1	–	1	68 (63%)	1
7 Kang-in Lee M	8.2	90'	1	–	6	52 (40%)	2
10 Alex Baena M	8.2	90'	1	–	5	51 (41%)	1
22 Alejandro Grimaldo D	8.0	85'	–	–	2	54 (49%)	2
21 Cristian Romero D	7.9	68'	–	–	2	60 (54%)	3
5 Johnny Cardoso M	7.7	85'	–	1	1	81 (77%)	4
14 Marcos Llorente D	7.6	90'	–	–	–	62 (59%)	4
18 Marc Pubill D	7.3	22'	–	–	1	27 (23%)	–
6 Koke M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	86 (77%)	5
17 Dávid Hancko D	7.0	5'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
23 Morten Hjulmand M	6.8	5'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
13 Jan Oblak G	6.8	90'	–	–	–	30 (22%)	–
20 Giuliano Simeone F	6.5	22'	–	–	–	13 (12%)	–
16 Arnau Ortiz F	6.5	22'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
11 Ademola Lookman F	6.4	68'	–	–	3	31 (27%)	1

Osasuna

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
13 Aitor Fernández G	6.5	90'	–	–	–	35 (17%)	–
17 Ante Budimir F	6.4	30'	–	–	–	1	–
48 Rockson Yeboah D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	32 (28%)	4
22 Flavien Boyomo D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	47 (42%)	1
11 Kike Barja F	6.2	31'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	1
9 Raúl García de Haro F	6.1	60'	–	–	1	13 (9%)	–
18 Raúl Moro M	6.0	59'	–	–	1	10 (8%)	–
7 Jon Moncayola M	5.9	19'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	1
20 Romain Del Castillo M	5.8	16'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
21 Jonathan Dubasin M	5.8	59'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
27 Iñigo Arguibide D	5.6	71'	–	–	–	10 (6%)	1
35 Unai Santos D	5.6	90'	–	–	1	42 (31%)	–
29 Asier Osambela M	5.5	74'	–	–	–	20 (11%)	8
14 Rubén García M	5.4	31'	–	–	–	12 (9%)	2
6 Lucas Torró M	5.4	90'	–	–	–	27 (17%)	1
23 Abel Bretones D	5.0	90'	–	–	–	16 (11%)	–

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Confidence Medium (65%)

At a glance

Nuestra inclinación

Atletico Madrid gana o empata

Most likely score

2:0 · 12.5%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

54%

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Atletico Madrid

WWWLL

Osasuna

DLLLW

Last 3 meetings Atletico Madrid · 2W 0D 1L

Match summary

Atletico Madrid will face Osasuna in this La Liga clash, with the hosts looking to leverage their strong defensive record. Atletico has averaged 1.8 goals per game this season while conceding just 0.6, showcasing their solid form. Osasuna, on the other hand, has struggled offensively, scoring only 1 goal per match on average. Given Atletico's robust home form and tactical discipline, they are favored to secure a victory in this matchup.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

65%

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

12%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Osasuna goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	3	2
1	11	11	4	1
2	13	10	4	1
3	9	7	3	1
4	5	4	1
5	2	1	1

↑ Atletico Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (12.5%)

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Players in form

Atletico Madrid

Álex Baena 4 gls

J. David 3 gls

Osasuna

A. Budimir 5 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

65%

Draw

22%

Away Win

12%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

84% Home (No Draw) 16% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

42% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

65% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 12% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

46%

2.5

54%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.0%	3.3%	1.8%	0.5%	0.1%
1	10.8%	10.7%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.5%	9.9%	3.9%	1.0%	0.2%
3	8.7%	6.9%	2.7%	0.7%	0.1%
4	4.5%	3.6%	1.4%	0.4%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

50%

1.5

50%

78%

2.5

22%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

21%

29%

27%

14%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico Madrid	Draw	Osasuna
Atletico Madrid	46.2%	4.1%	1.2%
Draw	19.1%	13.9%	6.0%
Osasuna	1.8%	2.4%	5.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

39%

1.5

61%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Home Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

45%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

60%

0.5

40%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Osasuna

2 Atletico Madrid Wins

0 Draws

1 Osasuna Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 May 2026	Osasuna	1 - 2	Atletico Madrid
18 Oct 2025	Atletico Madrid	1 - 0	Osasuna
15 May 2025	Osasuna	2 - 0	Atletico Madrid

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Atletico Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Real Madrid	W	2 - 1
16 Sep	H Osasuna	W	4 - 0
13 Sep	A Real Sociedad	W	0 - 3
09 Sep	A Liverpool	L	2 - 1
05 Sep	A Athletic Club	L	3 - 0

Osasuna — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	4 - 0
12 Sep	H Espanyol	L	0 - 2
06 Sep	A Alaves	L	5 - 2
31 Aug	H Getafe	W	1 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Atletico Madrid

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: D. Simeone

13 Oblak

22 Grimaldo

24 Normand

21 Romero

14 Llorente

10 Baena

5 Cardoso

6 Koke

7 Kang-In

11 Lookman

15 David

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	J. Oblak	G
14	Marcos Llorente	D
21	C. Romero	D
24	Robin Le Normand	D
22	Álex Grimaldo	D
7	Lee Kang-In	M
6	Koke	M
5	J. Cardoso	M
10	Álex Baena	M
15	J. David	F
11	A. Lookman	F

Substitutes

25	Salvador Esquivel	G
1	J. Musso	G
18	Marc Pubill	D
17	D. Hancko	D
27	J. Dominguez	D
20	G. Simeone	F
23	M. Hjulmand	M
3	O. Vargas	M
16	Arnau Ortiz	F
4	Rodrigo Mendoza	M
46	J. Castillo	M
30	Dani MartÃnez	D

Osasuna

Formation: 5-4-1 Coach: Luis Miguel Ramis

13 Fernández

23 Bretones

35 Santos

22 Boyomo

48 Yeboah

27 Arguibide

18 Moro

29 Osambela

6 Torró

21 Dubasin

9 García

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
13	Aitor Fernández	G
27	Íñigo Arguibide	D
48	R. Yeboah	D
22	F. Boyomo	D
35	U. Santos	D
23	Abel Bretones	D
21	Jonathan Dubasin	M
6	Lucas Torró	M
29	Asier Osambela	M
18	Raul Moro	M
9	Raúl García	F

Substitutes

11	Kike Barja	F
14	Rubén García	M
20	R. Del Castillo	M
8	Iker Muñoz	M
26	Mauro Echegoyen	M
17	A. Budimir	F
7	Moncayola	M
15	Diego Rico	D
24	Catena	D
1	Sergio Herrera	G
30	Asier Bonel	F
31	Rafa Fernández	G