Excelsior vs Ajax Prognose

Eredivisie · Regular Season - 22

14 Feb 2027, 16:00

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Ajax

Away

KI-Tipp Ajax gewinnt oder unentschieden

22%

69%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

Excelsior vs. Ajax Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Excelsior eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 9%, für Ajax 69% und für ein Unentschieden 22%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:2 · 14.8%

Both teams to score

41%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Excelsior

DLDWW

Ajax

DWWLW

Last 3 meetings Excelsior · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

Excelsior faces Ajax in an Eredivisie clash that promises to be a test of tactical discipline and offensive prowess. Ajax enters the match as the stronger side, boasting a high possession percentage and formidable goal-scoring record, averaging over 2.5 goals per match this season. Excelsior, known for their resilience, will need to focus on defensive organization to contain Ajax's attacking threats. Key players to watch include Ajax's top scorer, whose finishing ability could prove decisive. This matchup will be critical for both teams in their respective league standings.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

69%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Ajax goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	13	15	10	5	2
1	3	10	9	6	3	1
2	1	3	3	2	1
3		1	1
4
5

↑ Excelsior goals · most likely 0–2 (14.8%)

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Players in form

Excelsior

A. Sliti 3 gls

Ajax

J. Brandt 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

69%

Draw

22%

Home Win

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

69%

Draw

22%

Home Win

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

88% Away (No Draw) 12% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

45% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

69% Away Scores More 22% Equal Goals 9% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

59% BTTS No 41% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

16%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.2%	13.2%	14.8%	10.2%	5.2%
1	3.2%	10.1%	9.2%	6.3%	3.3%
2	1.3%	2.8%	2.9%	2.0%	1.0%
3	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	0.4%	0.2%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

32%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Excelsior	Draw	Ajax
Excelsior	4.9%	2.8%	2.2%
Draw	4.0%	14.1%	22.1%
Ajax	0.5%	2.8%	46.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

97%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

54%

33%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

13%

0.5

87%

40%

1.5

60%

67%

2.5

33%

86%

3.5

14%

Away Exact Goals

13%

27%

28%

19%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

69%

1.5

31%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Excelsior vs Ajax

1 Excelsior Wins

2 Draws

0 Ajax Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
19 Sep 2026	Ajax	2 - 2	Excelsior
01 Feb 2026	Excelsior	2 - 2	Ajax
22 Nov 2025	Ajax	1 - 2	Excelsior

Alle 10 Begegnungen ansehen — Premium

Excelsior — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Ajax	D	2 - 2
13 Sep	H Utrecht	L	1 - 2
08 Sep	A NEC Nijmegen	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	A Willem II	W	0 - 3
29 Aug	H Sparta Rotterdam	W	2 - 1

Ajax — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Excelsior	D	2 - 2
15 Sep	H Willem II	W	5 - 1
12 Sep	A Fortuna Sittard	W	1 - 5
05 Sep	H PSV Eindhoven	L	1 - 3
30 Aug	A Telstar	W	0 - 4

Eredivisie Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	AZ Alkmaar	7	6	1	0	18	6	+12	19
2	Feyenoord	7	5	2	0	25	7	+18	17
3	PSV Eindhoven	7	5	1	1	24	10	+14	16
4	Twente	7	5	1	1	15	7	+8	16
5	Ajax	7	4	2	1	21	9	+12	14
6	Fortuna Sittard	7	4	1	2	13	14	-1	13
7	Excelsior	7	3	2	2	15	9	+6	11
8	Groningen	7	3	2	2	15	13	+2	11
9	GO Ahead Eagles	7	2	4	1	16	14	+2	10
10	Heerenveen	7	2	3	2	11	9	+2	9
11	NEC Nijmegen	7	2	2	3	12	13	-1	8
12	Sparta Rotterdam	7	1	2	4	10	17	-7	5
13	Telstar	7	1	2	4	5	12	-7	5
14	Cambuur	7	1	2	4	10	19	-9	5
15	Utrecht	7	1	2	4	11	24	-13	5
16	PEC Zwolle	7	1	1	5	6	20	-14	4
17	ADO Den Haag	7	0	2	5	7	17	-10	2
18	Willem II	7	0	2	5	6	20	-14	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.