Ajax vs Excelsior Prognose
FT
Johan Cruijff Arena, Amsterdam
KI-Tipp
Ajax gewinnt oder unentschieden
73%
17%
11%
Heimsieg
Unentschieden
Auswärtssieg
Ajax vs. Excelsior Prognose: Sportiko berechnet für Ajax eine Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit von 73%, für Excelsior 11% und für ein Unentschieden 17%. Zuletzt aktualisiert 19 Sep 2026, 19:55.
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Timeline
Caio Henrique
⇄ Owen Wijndal
23'
⇄
Julian Brandt
assist: Kasper Dolberg
32'
⚽
1–0
▮
35'
Jan Plug
Yellow Card
⚽
1–1
45+1'
Lennard Hartjes
HT 1–1
Viktor Tsygankov
⇄ Oliver Valaker Edvardsen
61'
⇄
⚽
1–2
62'
Aymen Sliti
assist: Irakli Yegoian
Kasper Dolberg
⇄ Tolu Arokodare
62'
⇄
Tolu Arokodare
assist: Oscar Gloukh
64'
⚽
2–2
⇄
65'
Eric da Silva Moreira
⇄ K. Bos
⇄
71'
Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson
⇄ Ilano Silva Timas
⇄
71'
Aymen Sliti
⇄ Alireza Jahanbakhsh
Jorthy Mokio
⇄ Sofyan Amrabat
76'
⇄
Davy Klaassen
⇄ Abdellah Ouazane
77'
⇄
Oscar Gloukh
Yellow Card
85'
▮
▮
85'
Irakli Yegoian
Yellow Card
⇄
85'
David Garden
⇄ Mario Domínguez
FT 2–2
Ajax
Match Stats
Excelsior
81%
Ball Possession
19%
33
Total Shots
4
8
Shots on Goal
2
16
Shots off Goal
1
9
Blocked Shots
1
24
Shots insidebox
4
9
Shots outsidebox
0
9
Corner Kicks
0
3
Offsides
0
6
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
6
820
Total passes
197
755
Passes accurate
132
12
Free Kicks
5
Ajax
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Julian Brandt M | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 76 (68%) | 1 |
| 99 Tolu Arokodare F | 8.2 | 28' | 1 | – | 9 | 9 (8%) | – |
| 10 Oscar Gloukh F | 7.7 | 90' | – | 1 | 7 | 67 (58%) | – |
| 3 Anton Gaaei D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | 5 | 96 (86%) | 4 |
| 20 Oliver Valaker Edvardsen F | 7.1 | 29' | – | – | – | 10 (10%) | – |
| 5 Owen Wijndal D | 7.0 | 67' | – | – | – | 52 (47%) | – |
| 9 Kasper Dolberg F | 6.9 | 62' | – | 1 | 2 | 13 (10%) | – |
| 6 Thilo Kehrer D | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 140 (137%) | 1 |
| 15 Youri Baas D | 6.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 142 (134%) | 1 |
| 24 Jorthy Mokio M | 6.5 | 76' | – | – | 1 | 61 (58%) | 2 |
| 18 Davy Klaassen M | 6.4 | 77' | – | – | 2 | 47 (44%) | 2 |
| 68 Abdellah Ouazane M | 6.4 | 13' | – | – | 2 | 13 (13%) | – |
| 11 Viktor Tsygankov F | 6.3 | 61' | – | – | 1 | 36 (30%) | – |
| 4 Sofyan Amrabat M | 6.2 | 14' | – | – | – | 18 (17%) | 1 |
| 12 Caio Henrique D | 6.1 | 23' | – | – | – | 14 (10%) | – |
| 1 Marc-André Ter Stegen G | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 26 (25%) | – |
Excelsior
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Aymen Sliti F | 8.0 | 71' | 1 | – | 3 | 7 (3%) | 1 |
| 20 Lennard Hartjes M | 7.4 | 90' | 1 | – | 1 | 18 (15%) | 1 |
| 1 Stijn van Gassel G | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 44 (22%) | – |
| 8 Irakli Yegoian M | 6.8 | 90' | – | 1 | – | 20 (15%) | – |
| 12 K. Bos F | 6.8 | 25' | – | – | – | 4 (3%) | 1 |
| 4 Casper Widell D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 21 (16%) | 1 |
| 11 Alireza Jahanbakhsh F | 6.5 | 19' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
| 21 Ilano Silva Timas F | 6.5 | 19' | – | – | – | 2 (1%) | – |
| 30 Ágúst Orri Thorsteinsson F | 6.4 | 71' | – | – | – | 10 (8%) | 1 |
| 19 David Garden F | 6.4 | 85' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 2 Eric da Silva Moreira D | 6.3 | 65' | – | – | – | 18 (13%) | – |
| 14 Jan Plug D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | 1 |
| 15 Simon Janssen D | 6.1 | 90' | – | – | – | 10 (7%) | 3 |
| 9 Mario Domínguez F | 6.1 | 5' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 3 Rick Meissen M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (14%) | 1 |
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Confidence
High (73%)
At a glance
Unsere Einschätzung
Ajax gewinnt oder unentschieden
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Ajax
WWWWW
Excelsior
LLWLL
Last 3 meetings
Ajax · 0W 2D 1L
Match summary
Ajax faces Excelsior in a key Eredivisie matchup on September 19, 2026. Historically, Ajax has dominated this fixture, boasting a strong home record and a high attacking output, averaging over 2.5 goals per game this season. Excelsior, while competitive, struggles defensively, conceding an average of 2 goals in away matches. Ajax's midfield control and pressing game will likely challenge Excelsior's backline, making it crucial for the visitors to maintain defensive discipline. Overall, Ajax is favored to secure a victory based on recent form and head-to-head statistics.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowSecond-model agreement
Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.
Ours
Independent
Home
73%
45%
Draw
17%
45%
Away
11%
10%
Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Ajax
J. Brandt
6 gls
T. Arokodare
6 gls
Excelsior
No scorer data.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Ajax vs Excelsior
0
Ajax Wins
2
Draws
1
Excelsior Wins
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Feb 2026 | Excelsior | 2 - 2 | Ajax |
| 22 Nov 2025 | Ajax | 1 - 2 | Excelsior |
| 24 Apr 2024 | Ajax | 2 - 2 | Excelsior |
Ajax — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 05 Nov | A FC Midtjylland | W | 1 - 6 |
| 31 Oct | H AZ Alkmaar | W | 1 - 0 |
| 25 Oct | A Sparta Rotterdam | W | 1 - 2 |
| 22 Oct | H Atalanta | W | 2 - 0 |
| 18 Oct | A Groningen | W | 2 - 5 |
Excelsior — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | H GO Ahead Eagles | L | 0 - 1 |
| 01 Nov | H Twente | L | 0 - 9 |
| 28 Oct | A MVV | W | 0 - 3 |
| 25 Oct | A Fortuna Sittard | L | 1 - 0 |
| 16 Oct | A Heerenveen | L | 4 - 0 |
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Feyenoord
|
11 | 7 | 4 | 0 | 33 | 12 | +21 | 25 |
| 2 |
Ajax
|
11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 30 | 13 | +17 | 24 |
| 3 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 35 | 13 | +22 | 23 |
| 4 |
Twente
|
11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 28 | 10 | +18 | 23 |
| 5 |
AZ Alkmaar
|
11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 20 | 13 | +7 | 20 |
| 6 |
Fortuna Sittard
|
12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 20 | 20 | 0 | 20 |
| 7 |
Heerenveen
|
11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 19 | 13 | +6 | 18 |
| 8 |
GO Ahead Eagles
|
12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 24 | 27 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |
Groningen
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 26 | 24 | +2 | 15 |
| 10 |
Cambuur
|
11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 23 | 22 | +1 | 15 |
| 11 |
Utrecht
|
11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 19 | 31 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |
Sparta Rotterdam
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |
PEC Zwolle
|
12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 13 | 24 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |
NEC Nijmegen
|
11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 17 | 19 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |
Excelsior
|
12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | 16 | 29 | -13 | 11 |
| 16 |
Telstar
|
12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 18 | 25 | -7 | 10 |
| 17 |
ADO Den Haag
|
12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 16 | 25 | -9 | 9 |
| 18 |
Willem II
|
12 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 11 | 40 | -29 | 3 |
Ajax
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: Míchel
1
Stegen
12
Henrique
15
Baas
6
Kehrer
3
Gaaei
8
Brandt
24
Mokio
18
Klaassen
10
Gloukh
9
Dolberg
11
Tsygankov
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. ter Stegen | G |
| 3 | A. Gaaei | D |
| 6 | T. Kehrer | D |
| 15 | Y. Baas | D |
| 12 | Caio Henrique | D |
| 18 | D. Klaassen | M |
| 24 | J. Mokio | M |
| 8 | J. Brandt | M |
| 11 | V. Tsygankov | F |
| 9 | K. Dolberg | F |
| 10 | O. Gloukh | F |
Substitutes
| 2 | Lucas Rosa | D |
| 4 | S. Amrabat | M |
| 99 | T. Arokodare | F |
| 43 | Rayane Bounida | F |
| 20 | O. Edvardsen | F |
| 36 | D. Janse | D |
| 68 | A. Ouazane | M |
| 26 | M. Paes | G |
| 38 | Marcos Leonardo | F |
| 51 | C. Setford | G |
| 21 | Jofre Torrents | D |
| 5 | O. Wijndal | D |
Excelsior
Formation: 4-3-3
Coach: R. den Uil
1
Gassel
15
Janssen
14
Plug
4
Widell
2
Moreira
20
Hartjes
3
Meissen
8
Yegoian
30
Þorsteinsson
19
Garden
7
Sliti
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | S. van Gassel | G |
| 2 | Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | D |
| 4 | C. Widell | D |
| 14 | J. Plug | D |
| 15 | S. Janssen | D |
| 8 | I. Yegoian | M |
| 3 | R. Meissen | M |
| 20 | L. Hartjes | M |
| 7 | A. Sliti | F |
| 19 | D. Garden | F |
| 30 | Á. Þorsteinsson | F |
Substitutes
| 16 | Celton Biai | G |
| 12 | K. Bos | F |
| 24 | Giulliano Cairo | M |
| 9 | Mario Domínguez | F |
| 28 | N. Groen | F |
| 11 | A. Jahanbakhsh | F |
| 21 | I. Silva Timas | F |
| 18 | V. Sulzbacher | M |
| 22 | O. Turay | D |
| 6 | D. van Vianen | M |