CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag Prediction

UEFA Europa League · 2nd Qualifying Round

Post on X

CSKA Sofia

Home

0 : 0

HT 0 - 0

1st leg 0-0 · Aggregate 0-0

Qarabag

Away

KI-Tipp CSKA Sofia oder Unentschieden

45%

28%

Heimsieg Unentschieden Auswärtssieg

CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag prediction: Sportiko gives CSKA Sofia a 45% chance of winning, Qarabag 28% and the draw 28%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 20:49.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
1st Half Over 0.5 73%

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Timeline

Yellow Card

39' ▮

HT 0–0

Yellow Card

48' ▮

▮ 50'

Yellow Card

▮ 55'

Yellow Card

⇄ 70'

⇄ Renaldo Cephas

71' ⇄

Yellow Card

74' ▮

⇄ 82'

⇄ Cebrail Makreckis

⇄ 82'

⇄ Bruno Langa

⇄ 82'

89' ⇄

⇄ 90+2'

Yellow Card

95' ▮

99' ⇄

⇄ 100'

Yellow Card

105+3' ▮

▮ 106'

Yellow Card

112' ▮

⚽ 0–1 120+1'

Penalty

120+1' ⚽ 1–1

✗ 120+2'

Missed Penalty

Penalty

120+2' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 120+3'

Penalty

Jean-Philippe Gbamin Penalty

120+3' ⚽ 3–2

⚽ 3–3 120+4'

Renaldo Cephas Penalty

Penalty

120+4' ⚽ 4–3

⚽ 4–4 120+5'

Penalty

120+5' ⚽ 5–4

FT 0–0

CSKA Sofia

Match Stats

Qarabag

42% Ball Possession 58%

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

3 Shots on Goal 5

6 Shots off Goal 4

3 Blocked Shots 7

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

2 Corner Kicks 10

2 Offsides 0

26 Fouls 14

6 Yellow Cards 3

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Unsere Einschätzung

CSKA Sofia oder Unentschieden

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.2%

Both teams to score

54%

Over 2.5 goals

53%

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CSKA Sofia

WWDWD

Qarabag

LDDWW

Last 1 meetings CSKA Sofia · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

CSKA Sofia faces Qarabag in a UEFA Europa League clash with both teams showcasing strong defensive records in their domestic leagues. CSKA has been particularly effective at home, averaging 1.8 goals per match while conceding only 0.6, indicating a solid home performance trend. Conversely, Qarabag has maintained a robust away form, with a defensive resilience that has seen them concede fewer than 1 goal per match in their last five away fixtures. The match promises to be tightly contested, with set pieces likely playing a crucial role given both teams' aerial strengths.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

45%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

28%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Qarabag goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	7	4	3	1
1	10	12	5	2
2	10	10	5	2
3	6	6	3	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1	1

↑ CSKA Sofia goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

28%

Away Win

28%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Home Win by 2+ 7% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

56% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 18% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

93%

21%

1.5

79%

47%

2.5

53%

69%

3.5

31%

85%

4.5

15%

94%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS Yes 46% BTTS No

Exact Goals

14%

25%

23%

16%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.4%	4.4%	2.8%	0.9%	0.2%
1	9.7%	12.2%	5.2%	1.7%	0.4%
2	10.3%	10.0%	4.9%	1.6%	0.4%
3	6.4%	6.2%	3.0%	1.0%	0.2%
4	3.0%	2.9%	1.4%	0.5%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	CSKA Sofia	Draw	Qarabag
CSKA Sofia	37.1%	3.8%	1.1%
Draw	18.2%	15.6%	6.9%
Qarabag	2.6%	4.1%	10.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

16%

0.5

84%

45%

1.5

55%

72%

2.5

28%

89%

3.5

11%

Home Exact Goals

16%

29%

27%

17%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

38%

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

63%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: CSKA Sofia vs Qarabag

0 CSKA Sofia Wins

1 Draws

0 Qarabag Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
23 Jul 2026	Qarabag	0 - 0	CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A Maccabi Tel Aviv	W	0 - 3
02 Aug	H Dunav Ruse	W	2 - 1
30 Jul	H Qarabag	D	0 - 0
27 Jul	H Botev Plovdiv	W	3 - 2
23 Jul	A Qarabag	D	0 - 0

Qarabag — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Aug	A Dynamo Kyiv	L	1 - 0
30 Jul	A CSKA Sofia	D	0 - 0
23 Jul	H CSKA Sofia	D	0 - 0
16 Jul	A Vestri	W	0 - 3
09 Jul	H Vestri	W	3 - 0

UEFA Europa League Standings

League standings are not available for this competition.

Qarabag

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Qurban Qurbanov

99 Kochalski

44 Cafarquliyev

4 Várkonyi

55 Hüseynov

2 Silva

8 Janković

35 Bicalho

10 Zoubir

20 Borges

21 Kashchuk

11 Sawo

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
99	Mateusz Kochalski	G
2	Matheus Silva	D
55	Bədavi Hüseynov	D
4	Bence Várkonyi	D
44	Elvin Cafarquliyev	D
35	Pedro Bicalho	M
8	Marko Janković	M
21	Olexiy Kashchuk	M
20	Kady Borges	M
10	Abdellah Zoubir	M
11	Zakaria Sawo	F

Substitutes

29	Renaldo Cephas	F
5	Bruno Langa	D
7	Jaly Mouaddib	M
25	Cebrail Makreckis	M
9	Joni Montiel	M
22	Musa Qurbanlı	F
1	Shakhrudin Magomedaliyev	G
23	Martin Zlomislić	G
13	Bahlul Mustafazada	D
32	Hikmat Jabrayilzade	M
19	Ali Bashirov	M

CSKA Sofia

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Hristo Yanev

21 Lapoukhov

17 Martino

32 Rodríguez

14 Ivanov

2 Pastor

5 Gbamin

28 Pittas

6 Jordão

8 Sensi

7 Ebong

9 Godoy

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
21	Fedor Lapoukhov	G
2	Pastor	D
14	Teodor Ivanov	D
32	Facundo Rodríguez	D
17	Ángelo Martino	D
5	Jean-Philippe Gbamin	D
7	Max Ebong	M
8	Stefano Sensi	M
6	Bruno Jordão	M
28	Ioannis Pittas	F
9	Leandro Godoy	F

Substitutes

99	James Eto'o	M
10	Joël Zwarts	F
11	Mohamed Amine Brahimi	M
25	Dimitar Evtimov	G
3	Andrey Yordanov	D
91	Aleks Tunchev	D
30	Petko Panayotov	M
34	Vasil Kaymakanov	M
38	Léo Pereira	M
77	Alejandro Piedrahita	M
80	Georgi Chorbadzhiyski	M
94	Isaac Solet	M