Nottingham Forest vs Leeds Prediction
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds prediction: Sportiko gives Nottingham Forest a 40% chance of winning, Leeds 33% and the draw 28%. Last updated 22 Aug 2026, 15:55.
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Premium- 1st Half Over 0.5 73%
Match Report
Nottingham Forest and Leeds United played out a cagey first half at the City Ground, with neither side able to create clear-cut chances. The most notable moment before the break came when Harry Wilson had a goal ruled out for offside via VAR at the 25-minute mark, while yellow cards for Ola Aina and Dominic Calvert-Lewin added some early needle to proceedings.
The second half followed a similar pattern of limited opportunities, reflected in the low expected goals figures of 0.28 and 0.33 respectively. A flurry of substitutions from both sides failed to significantly open the game up, and it appeared a goalless draw was the likeliest outcome. However, Anton Stach broke the deadlock in the 88th minute with a late winner to hand Leeds all three points and condemn Forest to defeat.
Our pre-match AI model had rated a Nottingham Forest win as the most likely outcome at 40%, a call that ultimately proved wide of the mark. Leeds' victory was narrow but deserved on the balance of a tight contest, with the visitors edging both possession and shots on target across the ninety minutes.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Nottingham Forest
Match Stats
Nottingham Forest
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 James McAtee M | 7.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 28 (23%) | 1 |
| 5 Murillo D | 7.0 | 63' | – | – | – | 37 (33%) | 1 |
| 26 Matz Sels G | 6.7 | 63' | – | – | – | 20 (10%) | – |
| 34 Ola Aina M | 6.7 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 24 (15%) | – |
| 6 Ibrahim Sangaré M | 6.6 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 31 (24%) | – |
| 11 Igor Jesus F | 6.6 | 63' | – | – | 2 | 15 (13%) | – |
| 23 Jair D | 6.5 | 63' | – | – | – | 28 (25%) | 2 |
| 14 Dan Ndoye F | 6.3 | 62' | – | – | – | 10 (6%) | 1 |
| 31 Nikola Milenković D | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | 2 | 30 (23%) | – |
| 3 Neco Williams M | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | – | 18 (12%) | 1 |
| 10 Morgan Gibbs-White F | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 26 (20%) | – |
| 9 Chris Wood F | — | 1' | – | – | – | 2 (2%) | – |
Leeds
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 James Justin M | 7.3 | 63' | – | – | – | 17 (10%) | 6 |
| 1 James Trafford G | 7.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 26 (17%) | – |
| 4 Ethan Ampadu M | 7.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 39 (31%) | 2 |
| 15 Jaka Bijol D | 7.0 | 63' | – | – | – | 41 (35%) | 1 |
| 11 Brenden Aaronson F | 6.9 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 14 (10%) | 1 |
| 10 Harry Wilson F | 6.9 | 63' | – | – | – | 15 (13%) | 2 |
| 6 Joe Rodon D | 6.9 | 63' | – | – | – | 19 (16%) | 1 |
| 18 Anton Stach M | 6.9 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 25 (15%) | 2 |
| 5 Tarik Muharemović D | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | – | 30 (27%) | – |
| 9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F | 6.3 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 13 (5%) | – |
| 2 Jayden Bogle M | 6.2 | 63' | – | – | – | 18 (11%) | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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D. Calvert-Lewin
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Nottingham Forest vs Leeds
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Aug 2026 | Nottingham Forest | 0 - 2 | Leeds |
| 06 Feb 2026 | Leeds | 3 - 1 | Nottingham Forest |
| 09 Nov 2025 | Nottingham Forest | 3 - 1 | Leeds |
Nottingham Forest — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | H Coventry | L | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Aston Villa | W | 1 - 2 |
| 05 Sep | H Tottenham | D | 0 - 0 |
| 29 Aug | A Liverpool | D | 2 - 2 |
| 25 Aug | H Leeds | L | 0 - 2 |
Leeds — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | H Crystal Palace | D | 0 - 0 |
| 14 Sep | H Newcastle | W | 4 - 1 |
| 09 Sep | A Chelsea | L | 6 - 3 |
| 05 Sep | A Brighton | D | 1 - 1 |
| 30 Aug | H Brentford | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Manchester City
|
5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 5 | +8 | 15 |
| 2 |
Arsenal
|
5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 3 |
Brighton
|
5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 10 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 9 |
| 5 |
Leeds
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | +4 | 9 |
| 6 |
Liverpool
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 9 |
| 7 |
Everton
|
5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
| 8 |
Hull City
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 4 | +2 | 8 |
| 9 |
Newcastle
|
5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chelsea
|
5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 12 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Ipswich
|
5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 6 |
| 12 |
Manchester United
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 5 |
| 13 |
Nottingham Forest
|
5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 5 |
| 14 |
Sunderland
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 10 | -4 | 4 |
| 15 |
Crystal Palace
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 4 |
| 16 |
Aston Villa
|
5 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 17 |
Bournemouth
|
5 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 8 | -2 | 3 |
| 18 |
Coventry
|
5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3 |
| 19 |
Fulham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 2 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 2 |
Leeds
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: D. Farke
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Trafford | G |
| 6 | Joe Rodon | D |
| 15 | Jaka Bijol | D |
| 5 | Tarik Muharemović | D |
| 2 | Jayden Bogle | M |
| 18 | Anton Stach | M |
| 4 | Ethan Ampadu | M |
| 24 | James Justin | M |
| 10 | Harry Wilson | F |
| 11 | Brenden Aaronson | F |
| 9 | Dominic Calvert-Lewin | F |
Substitutes
| 23 | Lucas Perri | G |
| 65 | Jayden Lienou | D |
| 30 | Nico Elvedi | D |
| 50 | Alfie Cresswell | M |
| 8 | Sean Longstaff | M |
| 22 | Ao Tanaka | M |
| 7 | Daniel James | F |
| 19 | Noah Okafor | F |
| 14 | Lukas Nmecha | F |
Nottingham Forest
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: O. Glasner
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 26 | Matz Sels | G |
| 23 | Jair | D |
| 31 | Nikola Milenković | D |
| 5 | Murillo | D |
| 34 | Ola Aina | M |
| 24 | James McAtee | M |
| 6 | Ibrahim Sangaré | M |
| 3 | Neco Williams | M |
| 14 | Dan Ndoye | F |
| 10 | Morgan Gibbs-White | F |
| 11 | Igor Jesus | F |
Substitutes
| 9 | Chris Wood | F |
| 12 | John Victor | G |
| 2 | Ousmane Diomande | D |
| 25 | Luca Netz | D |
| 44 | Zach Abbott | D |
| 8 | Nicolás Domínguez | M |
| 7 | Callum Hudson Odoi | F |
| 21 | Xaver Schlager | M |
| 15 | Arnaud Kalimuendo | F |