Metz vs Lorient Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 33

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Lorient

Away

Yapay zeka tahmini Zorlu Lorient galibiyet veya beraberlik

16%

27%

57%

Ev Sahibi Galibiyeti Beraberlik Deplasman Galibiyeti

Metz vs Lorient prediction: Sportiko gives Metz a 16% chance of winning, Lorient 57% and the draw 27%. Last updated 29 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lorient claimed a commanding 4-0 victory at Metz in Ligue 1, with the result already taking shape in the first half. Jean-Victor Makengo broke the deadlock on 24 minutes to give the visitors a deserved lead, and the early stages were also marked by a flurry of yellow cards, with three bookings issued before the half-hour mark. Metz went into the break trailing by a single goal but with discipline concerns mounting.

The second half saw Metz push for an equaliser, and the statistics reflect that pressure — the hosts finished with 14 total shots and an expected goals figure of 2.00 compared to Lorient's 0.67. However, the visitors held firm and punished their opponents on the counter. Ahmadou Bamba Dieng added a second on 84 minutes before a dramatic finale saw Arthur Avom Ebong and Noah Cadiou both strike in the 90th minute to seal an emphatic scoreline.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lorient win as the most likely outcome at 57%, a call that proved well-founded as the away side left with maximum points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Sadibou Sané Yellow Card

9' ▮

▮ 15'

Abdoulaye Faye Yellow Card

Georgiy Tsitaishvili Yellow Card

23' ▮

⚽ 0–1 24'

Jean-Victor Makengo assist: Arsène Kouassi

Nathan Mbala ⇄ Giorgi Abuashvili

40' ⇄

▮ 42'

Jean-Victor Makengo Yellow Card

HT 0–1

⇄ 62'

Abdoulaye Faye ⇄ Souleymane Isaak Touré

⇄ 62'

Karim Dermane ⇄ Pablo Pagis

Giorgi Kvilitaia ⇄ Habib Diallo

64' ⇄

Koffi Kouao ⇄ Benjamin Stambouli

65' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Aiyegun Tosin ⇄ Ahmadou Bamba Dieng

⇄ 74'

Jean-Victor Makengo ⇄ Arthur Avom Ebong

Jean-Philippe Gbamin ⇄ Believe Munongo

76' ⇄

⚽ 0–2 84'

Ahmadou Bamba Dieng assist: Pablo Pagis

⚽ 0–3 90'

Arthur Avom Ebong assist: Pablo Pagis

⚽ 0–4 90'

Noah Cadiou

⇄ 90+5'

Panos Katseris ⇄ Igor Silva

FT 0–4

Metz

Match Stats

Lorient

54% Ball Possession 46%

0.67 Expected Goals (xG) 2.00

8 Total Shots 14

2 Shots on Goal 7

4 Shots off Goal 5

2 Blocked Shots 2

5 Shots insidebox 7

3 Shots outsidebox 7

7 Corner Kicks 4

0 Offsides 2

8 Fouls 8

2 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 2

517 Total passes 466

465 Passes accurate 400

90% Passes % 86%

0.69 goals_prevented 0.69

Metz

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
5 Jean-Philippe Gbamin M	7.0	76'	–	–	–	62 (55%)	1
11 Giorgi Kvilitaia F	7.0	64'	–	–	1	11 (8%)	1
39 Koffi Kouao D	6.6	65'	–	–	–	50 (48%)	2
15 Terry Yegbe D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	69 (67%)	–
7 Georgiy Tsitaishvili M	6.5	90'	–	–	–	32 (28%)	–
34 Nathan Mbala M	6.5	40'	–	–	1	11 (8%)	2
9 Giorgi Abuashvili F	6.5	50'	–	–	–	24 (23%)	–
21 Benjamin Stambouli M	6.5	25'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	–
10 Gauthier Hein M	6.3	90'	–	–	1	55 (47%)	–
30 Habib Diallo F	6.3	26'	–	–	1	–	–
61 Pape Sy G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	22 (17%)	–
38 Sadibou Sané D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	88 (82%)	1
20 Jessy Deminguet M	6.2	90'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	1
70 Bouna Sarr D	6.2	90'	–	–	1	39 (36%)	–
33 Believe Munongo M	6.2	14'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–

Lorient

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Noah Cadiou M	8.3	90'	1	–	1	68 (60%)	–
17 Jean-Victor Makengo F	8.0	74'	1	–	3	21 (18%)	2
38 Yvon Mvogo G	7.9	90'	–	–	–	32 (29%)	–
12 Ahmadou Bamba Dieng F	7.7	16'	1	–	3	2 (1%)	–
62 Arthur Avom Ebong M	7.6	16'	1	–	1	16 (13%)	–
3 Montassar Talbi D	7.5	90'	–	–	–	46 (44%)	–
43 Arsène Kouassi M	7.3	90'	–	1	1	32 (27%)	–
32 Nathaniel Adjei D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	31 (29%)	2
10 Pablo Pagis F	7.0	28'	–	2	–	18 (15%)	–
25 Abdoulaye Faye D	6.9	62'	–	–	–	37 (35%)	2
6 Laurent Abergel M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	75 (63%)	1
95 Souleymane Isaak Touré D	6.9	28'	–	–	–	19 (15%)	–
29 Karim Dermane F	6.7	62'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	2
15 Aiyegun Tosin F	6.3	74'	–	–	2	9 (7%)	–
77 Panos Katseris M	6.3	89'	–	–	–	33 (25%)	1
2 Igor Silva D	—	1'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

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Zorlu Lorient galibiyet veya beraberlik

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Metz

LWWDL

Lorient

WWLWD

Last 3 meetings Metz · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 9, 2026, Metz hosts Lorient at Stade Saint-Symphorien. Metz has struggled at home this season, with a win rate of just 30%, while Lorient has performed better on the road, securing 40% of their away matches. Both teams are fighting to avoid relegation, making this match crucial for their survival in the league. Key players to watch include Metz's leading scorer, who has netted 10 goals this season, and Lorient's playmaker, who averages 2 key passes per game. The outcome could hinge on Metz's ability to convert their home advantage into points against a resilient Lorient side.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lorient goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	14	19	13	6	2	1
1	8	11	8	4	1
2	2	3	2	1
3		1
4
5

↑ Metz goals · most likely 0–1 (19.1%)

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Head to Head: Metz vs Lorient

1 Metz Wins

1 Draws

1 Lorient Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Jan 2026	Lorient	1 - 1	Metz
04 Feb 2024	Metz	1 - 2	Lorient
26 Nov 2023	Lorient	2 - 3	Metz

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Metz — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
01 Aug	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	L	1 - 3
25 Jul	H Fortuna Sittard	W	3 - 1
17 Jul	H Seraing United	W	5 - 0
17 May	A Nice	D	0 - 0
10 May	H Lorient	L	0 - 4

Lorient — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
25 Jul	A Guingamp	W	0 - 2
11 Jul	A Concarneau	W	1 - 2
17 May	H Le Havre	L	0 - 2
10 May	A Metz	W	0 - 4
02 May	A Paris Saint Germain	D	2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0