Mexico vs South Africa Tahmin

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

South Africa

Away

Estadio Azteca, D.F.

Yapay zeka tahmini Zorlu Mexico galibiyet veya beraberlik

58%

27%

15%

Ev Sahibi Galibiyeti Beraberlik Deplasman Galibiyeti

Mexico - South Africa tahmini: Sportiko, Mexico takımına %58 kazanma olasılığı, South Africa takımına %15 ve beraberliğe %27 olasılık öngörüyor. Son güncelleme: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 73%
1.5 Üzeri Gol 72%

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Match Report

Mexico secured a comfortable 2-0 victory over South Africa in their World Cup Group Stage opener, controlling proceedings throughout at both ends of the pitch. Julián Quiñones opened the scoring in the 9th minute to give El Tri an early advantage, which they carried into the break despite early yellow cards for both Teboho Mokoena and Brian Gutiérrez.

The second half proved decisive as South Africa's task became significantly harder when Siphephelo Sithole received a red card in the 49th minute. Mexico capitalized on their numerical advantage when Raúl Jiménez doubled the lead in the 67th minute. Our pre-match AI model rated "Mexico win" most likely at 58% — that call was correct. South Africa's frustrations continued as they finished with nine men following Themba Zwane's dismissal in the 84th minute, though Mexico also saw César Montes sent off in stoppage time.

The statistics reflected Mexico's dominance, with El Tri registering 16 shots compared to South Africa's three, while maintaining 61% possession. Mexico's expected goals of 1.44 against South Africa's 0.07 highlighted the gulf in quality between the sides on the day.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Julián Quiñones assist: Erik Lira

9' ⚽ 1–0

▮ 17'

Teboho Mokoena Yellow Card

Brian Gutiérrez Yellow Card

23' ▮

HT 1–0

▮ 49'

Siphephelo Sithole Red Card

⇄ 56'

Lyle Foster ⇄ Thalente Mbatha

⇄ 61'

Jayden Adams ⇄ Themba Zwane

Brian Gutiérrez ⇄ Luis Chávez

66' ⇄

Álvaro Fidalgo ⇄ Gilberto Mora

66' ⇄

Raúl Jiménez assist: Roberto Alvarado

67' ⚽ 2–0

▮ 74'

Nkosinathi Sibisi Yellow Card

Erik Lira ⇄ Edson Álvarez

76' ⇄

Raúl Jiménez ⇄ Armando González

76' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Iqraam Rayners ⇄ Evidence Makgopa

⇄ 77'

Aubrey Modiba ⇄ Oswin Appollis

Julián Quiñones ⇄ Alexis Vega

79' ⇄

▮ 84'

Themba Zwane Red Card

César Montes Red Card

90+2' ▮

FT 2–0

Mexico

Match Stats

South Africa

61% Ball Possession 39%

1.44 Expected Goals (xG) 0.07

16 Total Shots 3

4 Shots on Goal 2

7 Shots off Goal 1

5 Blocked Shots 0

9 Shots insidebox 1

7 Shots outsidebox 2

3 Corner Kicks 1

1 Offsides 1

11 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 2

2 Goalkeeper Saves 2

519 Total passes 322

466 Passes accurate 262

90% Passes % 81%

-0.47 goals_prevented -0.47

Mexico

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Julián Quiñones M	8.5	79'	1	–	4	33 (28%)	–
25 Roberto Alvarado M	8.0	95'	–	1	–	35 (32%)	4
9 Raúl Jiménez F	7.9	76'	1	–	3	19 (15%)	1
6 Erik Lira M	7.3	76'	–	1	–	45 (42%)	1
1 Raúl Rangel G	7.2	95'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–
8 Álvaro Fidalgo M	7.2	66'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	1
15 Israel Reyes D	7.0	95'	–	–	1	42 (38%)	–
3 César Montes D	6.9	92'	–	–	–	65 (60%)	–
5 Johan Vásquez D	6.9	95'	–	–	–	81 (75%)	1
26 Brian Gutiérrez M	6.9	66'	–	–	2	23 (20%)	–
4 Edson Álvarez M	6.9	19'	–	–	–	15 (14%)	1
23 Jesús Gallardo D	6.6	95'	–	–	1	44 (33%)	–
24 Luis Chávez M	6.6	29'	–	–	–	28 (28%)	1
10 Alexis Vega F	6.5	16'	–	–	–	10 (10%)	–
19 Gilberto Mora M	6.5	29'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	–
14 Armando González F	6.2	19'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

South Africa

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Jayden Adams M	6.7	61'	–	–	–	20 (16%)	–
7 Oswin Appollis F	6.7	18'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	1
1 Ronwen Williams G	6.6	95'	–	–	–	39 (27%)	–
17 Evidence Makgopa F	6.6	18'	–	–	–	4 (1%)	–
20 Khuliso Mudau D	6.5	95'	–	–	–	28 (24%)	4
14 Mbekezeli Mbokazi D	6.3	95'	–	–	1	30 (23%)	2
4 Teboho Mokoena M	6.3	95'	–	–	–	41 (38%)	–
15 Iqraam Rayners F	6.3	77'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	–
5 Thalente Mbatha M	6.3	39'	–	–	–	6 (3%)	2
21 Ime Okon D	6.2	95'	–	–	–	48 (43%)	2
19 Nkosinathi Sibisi D	6.0	95'	–	–	–	46 (39%)	–
6 Aubrey Modiba D	5.9	77'	–	–	1	15 (12%)	3
9 Lyle Foster F	5.9	56'	–	–	1	5 (1%)	–
11 Themba Zwane M	5.5	23'	–	–	–	7 (5%)	–
13 Siphephelo Sithole M	5.2	49'	–	–	–	19 (17%)	–

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Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Bizim analizimiz

Zorlu Mexico galibiyet veya beraberlik

Most likely score

1:0 · 12.8%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Mexico

LWWWW

South Africa

LWDL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup clash on June 11, 2026, Mexico will host South Africa in what promises to be an intriguing matchup. Mexico, known for their strong attacking style, will rely on players like Raúl Jiménez and Hirving Lozano to exploit South Africa's defense, which has struggled against high-pressing teams. Conversely, South Africa will aim to leverage their pace on the wings, with players such as Percy Tau looking to create opportunities. Historically, Mexico has a favorable record against African teams in World Cups, but South Africa's resilience could pose a challenge. Set to be a pivotal fixture, both teams will seek to secure early points in their group.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

South Africa goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	5	3	1
1	13	13	4	1
2	12	10	4	1
3	7	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Mexico goals · most likely 1–0 (12.8%)

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Players in form

Mexico

J. Quiñones 4 gls

South Africa

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

58%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

79% Home (No Draw) 21% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

58% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

28%

1.5

72%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

18%

27%

22%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	5.0%	2.5%	0.7%	0.1%
1	12.8%	12.6%	4.3%	1.1%	0.2%
2	12.3%	9.6%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	7.0%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%	0.1%
4	3.0%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Mexico	Draw	South Africa
Mexico	36.9%	3.6%	0.9%
Draw	20.3%	17.4%	6.6%
South Africa	2.3%	3.6%	8.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

76%

2.5

24%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

46%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

65%

0.5

35%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Mexico vs South Africa

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Mexico — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
06 Jul	H England	L	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Ecuador	W	2 - 0
25 Jun	A Czechia	W	0 - 3
19 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
11 Jun	H South Africa	W	2 - 0

South Africa — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
28 Jun	H Canada	L	0 - 1
25 Jun	H South Korea	W	1 - 0
18 Jun	A Czechia	D	1 - 1
11 Jun	A Mexico	L	2 - 0

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Mexico

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Javier Aguirre

1 Rangel

23 Gallardo

5 Vásquez

3 Montes

15 Reyes

6 Lira

16 Quiñones

8 Fidalgo

26 Gutiérrez

25 Alvarado

9 Jiménez

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Raúl Rangel	G
15	Israel Reyes	D
3	César Montes	D
5	Johan Vásquez	D
23	Jesús Gallardo	D
6	Erik Lira	M
25	Roberto Alvarado	M
26	Brian Gutiérrez	M
8	Álvaro Fidalgo	M
16	Julián Quiñones	M
9	Raúl Jiménez	F

Substitutes

19	Gilberto Mora	M
24	Luis Chávez	M
12	Carlos Acevedo	G
13	Guillermo Ochoa	G
2	Jorge Sánchez	D
7	Luis Romo	M
20	Mateo Chávez	D
10	Alexis Vega	F
21	César Huerta	M
4	Edson Álvarez	M
18	Obed Vargas	M
17	Orbelín Pineda	M
14	Armando González	F
22	Guillermo Martínez	F
11	Santiago Giménez	F

South Africa

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Hugo Broos

1 Williams

6 Modiba

14 Mbokazi

21 Okon

19 Sibisi

20 Mudau

23 Adams

13 Sithole

4 Mokoena

9 Foster

15 Rayners

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Ronwen Williams	G
20	Khuliso Mudau	D
19	Nkosinathi Sibisi	D
21	Ime Okon	D
14	Mbekezeli Mbokazi	D
6	Aubrey Modiba	D
4	Teboho Mokoena	M
13	Siphephelo Sithole	M
23	Jayden Adams	M
15	Iqraam Rayners	F
9	Lyle Foster	F

Substitutes

5	Thalente Mbatha	M
11	Themba Zwane	M
22	Ricardo Goss	G
16	Sipho Chaine	G
26	Bradley Cross	D
3	Khulumani Ndamane	D
24	Olwethu Makhanya	D
18	Samukelo Kabini	D
2	Tholo Thabang Matuludi	D
7	Oswin Appollis	F
8	Tshepang Moremi	F
10	Relebohile Mofokeng	F
25	Kamogelo Sebelebele	M
12	Thapelo Maseko	F
17	Evidence Makgopa	F