Burnley vs Wolves Prediction
Burnley vs Wolves prediction: Sportiko gives Burnley a 31% chance of winning, Wolves 36% and the draw 33%. Last updated 30 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Burnley and Wolves shared the spoils in a 1–1 draw at Turf Moor, though the result will feel like two dropped points for the visitors, who dominated possession with 70% and led at half-time. The match sparked to life inside five minutes when a VAR-confirmed penalty, awarded for a foul by Ladislav Krejčí, was converted by Adam Armstrong to give Burnley an early lead. Wolves, however, controlled much of the first half and went in ahead after a frantic added-time period that saw yellow cards for both Hwang Hee-chan and Hannibal Mejbri.
Wolves' advantage came just two minutes after the restart, Zian Flemming finishing with a composed effort to make it 1–1. Despite generating 0.98 expected goals to Burnley's 2.09, Wolves' superior ball retention kept the hosts under pressure for long stretches, though a winner never materialised.
Both managers rang the changes heavily in the second half, with five substitutions apiece disrupting the flow. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Wolves win as the most likely outcome at 36%, a call that nearly proved correct. Yerson Mosquera picked up a late yellow card as the game ended level.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Burnley
Match Stats
Burnley
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Max Weiss G | 8.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (31%) | – |
| 19 Zian Flemming F | 7.9 | 85' | 1 | – | 1 | 16 (11%) | – |
| 28 Hannibal Mejbri M | 7.7 | 66' | – | – | 1 | 44 (33%) | 1 |
| 12 Bashir Humphreys D | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 62 (56%) | – |
| 16 Florentino Luís M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 61 (53%) | 4 |
| 20 James Ward-Prowse M | 7.0 | 15' | – | – | – | 20 (20%) | 1 |
| 10 Marcus Edwards F | 7.0 | 15' | – | – | 1 | 16 (15%) | – |
| 2 Kyle Walker D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 79 (71%) | 1 |
| 6 Axel Tuanzebe D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 59 (51%) | 1 |
| 8 Lesley Ugochukwu M | 6.9 | 75' | – | – | – | 34 (32%) | – |
| 35 Ashley Barnes F | 6.7 | 14' | – | – | 1 | 2 (2%) | – |
| 7 Jacob Bruun Larsen F | 6.6 | 13' | – | – | – | 6 (5%) | – |
| 11 Jaidon Anthony M | 6.3 | 85' | – | – | 2 | 48 (42%) | – |
| 23 Lucas Pires D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 51 (46%) | 1 |
| 25 Zeki Amdouni F | 6.2 | 24' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | – |
| 17 Loum Tchaouna M | 6.2 | 75' | – | 1 | – | 28 (24%) | – |
Wolves
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 Mateus Mané F | 8.2 | 90' | – | – | 3 | 16 (12%) | 1 |
| 1 José Sá G | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (11%) | 1 |
| 15 Yerson Mosquera D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 14 (7%) | 3 |
| 11 Hwang Hee-chan F | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 25 (20%) | 1 |
| 6 David Møller Wolfe M | 6.9 | 74' | – | – | – | 15 (12%) | 1 |
| 7 André M | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 22 (20%) | 4 |
| 47 Angel Gomes M | 6.9 | 66' | – | – | – | 21 (17%) | 2 |
| 17 Pedro Lima D | 6.9 | 8' | – | – | 1 | 1 (1%) | 1 |
| 24 Toti Gomes D | 6.9 | 24' | – | – | – | 9 (8%) | – |
| 50 Jerome Abbey M | 6.9 | 16' | – | – | – | 5 (1%) | 1 |
| 9 Adam Armstrong F | 6.7 | 74' | 1 | – | 1 | 4 | – |
| 14 Tolu Arokodare F | 6.7 | 24' | – | – | – | 4 (2%) | – |
| 3 Hugo Bueno D | 6.6 | 16' | – | – | – | 3 (2%) | – |
| 37 Ladislav Krejčí D | 6.5 | 66' | – | – | 1 | 28 (19%) | 1 |
| 21 Rodrigo Gomes M | 6.5 | 82' | – | – | 1 | 15 (12%) | 1 |
| 4 Santiago Bueno D | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 21 (19%) | – |
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Expected goals (xG)
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Burnley vs Wolves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Oct 2025 | Wolves | 2 - 3 | Burnley |
| 02 Apr 2024 | Burnley | 1 - 1 | Wolves |
| 05 Dec 2023 | Wolves | 1 - 0 | Burnley |
Burnley — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02 Aug | H Torino | L | 0 - 1 |
| 29 Jul | H Espanyol | D | 2 - 2 |
| 26 Jul | A Ajax | L | 2 - 1 |
| 24 May | H Wolves | D | 1 - 1 |
| 18 May | A Arsenal | L | 1 - 0 |
Wolves — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Aug | H Port Vale | W | 3 - 0 |
| 01 Aug | H Racing Santander | W | 3 - 0 |
| 29 Jul | A Doncaster | W | 0 - 2 |
| 25 Jul | H Real Sociedad | L | 1 - 2 |
| 24 May | A Burnley | D | 1 - 1 |
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Arsenal
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 2 |
Aston Villa
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 3 |
Bournemouth
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 4 |
Brentford
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 5 |
Brighton
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 6 |
Chelsea
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 7 |
Coventry
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 8 |
Crystal Palace
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 9 |
Everton
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 10 |
Fulham
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 11 |
Hull City
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 12 |
Ipswich
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 13 |
Leeds
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 14 |
Liverpool
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 15 |
Manchester City
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 16 |
Manchester United
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 17 |
Newcastle
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 18 |
Nottingham Forest
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 19 |
Sunderland
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| 20 |
Tottenham
|
0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Wolves
Formation: 3-4-2-1
Coach: Rob Edwards
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | J. Sa | G |
| 15 | Y. Mosquera | D |
| 4 | S. Bueno | D |
| 37 | L. Krejci | D |
| 21 | R. Gomes | M |
| 7 | Andre | M |
| 47 | A. Gomes | M |
| 6 | D. M. Wolfe | M |
| 36 | M. Mane | F |
| 11 | Hwang Hee-Chan | F |
| 9 | A. Armstrong | F |
Substitutes
| 25 | D. Bentley | G |
| 14 | T. Arokodare | F |
| 60 | E. Sutherland | M |
| 24 | Toti | D |
| 3 | H. Bueno | D |
| 38 | J. Tchatchoua | D |
| 74 | T. Edozie | - |
| 17 | Pedro Lima | D |
| 50 | J. Abbey | M |
Burnley
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: Mike Jackson
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | M. Weiss | G |
| 2 | K. Walker | D |
| 6 | A. Tuanzebe | D |
| 12 | B. Humphreys | D |
| 23 | Lucas Pires | D |
| 16 | Florentino | M |
| 8 | L. Ugochukwu | M |
| 17 | L. Tchaouna | M |
| 28 | H. Mejbri | M |
| 11 | J. Anthony | M |
| 19 | Z. Flemming | F |
Substitutes
| 1 | M. Dubravka | G |
| 20 | J. Ward-Prowse | M |
| 35 | A. Barnes | F |
| 29 | J. Laurent | M |
| 7 | J. Bruun Larsen | F |
| 10 | M. Edwards | F |
| 14 | C. Roberts | D |
| 18 | H. Ekdal | D |
| 25 | Z. Amdouni | F |