England vs Croatia Predviđanje

World Cup · Group Stage - 1

Post on X

Croatia

Away

AI poziv Teška pobeda ili remi za England

55%

28%

17%

Pobeda domaćina Nerešeno Pobeda gostiju

Prognoza: England vs Croatia: Sportiko procenjuje da England ima 55% šanse za pobedu, Croatia 17%, a nerešeno 28%. Poslednje ažuriranje 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Više od 1.5 golova 71%

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Match Report

England opened the scoring through a Harry Kane penalty in the 12th minute, but Croatia hit back with Martin Baturina's equaliser on 36 minutes. Kane restored England's lead shortly before half-time, only for Petar Musa to level again deep into stoppage time, sending the teams in level at 2–2 at the break.

Jude Bellingham settled English nerves almost immediately after the restart, netting just two minutes into the second half to put England ahead for the third time. Croatia pressed hard — finishing with 54% possession, 21 total shots and an expected goals figure of 2.82 compared to England's 0.53 — but could not find another equaliser. Marcus Rashford sealed the result with a late strike on 85 minutes to confirm a 4–2 victory.

Our pre-match AI model had rated an England win as the most likely outcome at 55%, a call that proved correct. The result gives England a winning start in Group Stage play, though Croatia's underlying numbers will offer Zlatko Dalić's side some encouragement heading into their next fixture.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Harry Kane Penalty

12' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 36'

Martin Baturina assist: Petar Sučić

Harry Kane assist: Declan Rice

42' ⚽ 2–1

⚽ 2–2 45+5'

Petar Musa assist: Ivan Perišić

HT 2–2

Jude Bellingham assist: Elliot Anderson

47' ⚽ 3–2

⇄ 58'

Luka Modrić ⇄ Mateo Kovačić

⇄ 66'

Luka Vušković ⇄ Marco Pašalić

⇄ 66'

Petar Musa ⇄ Igor Matanović

Anthony Gordon ⇄ Marcus Rashford

72' ⇄

Noni Madueke ⇄ Bukayo Saka

72' ⇄

Declan Rice ⇄ Morgan Rogers

72' ⇄

⇄ 78'

Martin Baturina ⇄ Nikola Vlašić

⇄ 79'

Mario Pašalić ⇄ Andrej Kramarić

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Djed Spence

80' ⇄

Marcus Rashford assist: Bukayo Saka

85' ⚽ 4–2

John Stones ⇄ Marc Guéhi

87' ⇄

FT 4–2

England

Match Stats

Croatia

54% Ball Possession 46%

2.82 Expected Goals (xG) 0.53

21 Total Shots 8

11 Shots on Goal 5

5 Shots off Goal 3

5 Blocked Shots 0

19 Shots insidebox 3

2 Shots outsidebox 5

8 Corner Kicks 1

0 Offsides 1

9 Fouls 11

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 7

468 Total passes 410

402 Passes accurate 349

86% Passes % 85%

-0.75 goals_prevented -0.75

England

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Harry Kane F	8.3	89'	2	–	5	19 (12%)	–
20 Noni Madueke M	7.7	72'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	–
10 Jude Bellingham M	7.6	80'	1	–	3	24 (18%)	3
11 Marcus Rashford F	7.2	17'	1	–	1	4 (2%)	–
8 Elliot Anderson M	7.0	89'	–	1	–	53 (45%)	2
7 Bukayo Saka F	7.0	17'	–	1	–	4 (4%)	–
4 Declan Rice M	6.9	72'	–	1	1	36 (32%)	–
17 Morgan Rogers M	6.9	17'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
5 John Stones D	6.5	87'	–	–	–	65 (62%)	1
25 Djed Spence D	6.5	9'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
1 Jordan Pickford G	6.3	89'	–	–	–	53 (42%)	–
2 Ezri Konsa D	6.3	89'	–	–	2	71 (67%)	–
3 Nico O'Reilly D	6.2	89'	–	–	2	41 (34%)	–
18 Anthony Gordon M	6.2	72'	–	–	1	11 (9%)	–
24 Reece James D	5.9	89'	–	–	–	42 (35%)	–
6 Marc Guéhi D	—	2'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–

Croatia

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
16 Martin Baturina F	7.9	78'	1	–	1	32 (25%)	1
1 Dominik Livaković G	7.7	89'	–	–	–	31 (20%)	1
26 Petar Musa F	7.5	66'	1	–	1	8 (3%)	1
14 Ivan Perišić M	6.9	89'	–	1	–	25 (22%)	1
8 Mateo Kovačić M	6.9	31'	–	–	1	23 (22%)	1
2 Josip Stanišić M	6.7	89'	–	–	–	31 (27%)	2
15 Mario Pašalić M	6.7	79'	–	–	1	22 (21%)	1
24 Marco Pašalić F	6.6	23'	–	–	1	9 (5%)	1
17 Petar Sučić F	6.3	89'	–	1	1	33 (27%)	–
9 Andrej Kramarić F	6.3	10'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	–
20 Igor Matanović F	6.3	23'	–	–	1	1	–
13 Nikola Vlašić M	6.2	11'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	–
22 Luka Vušković D	6.0	66'	–	–	–	42 (37%)	–
10 Luka Modrić M	6.0	58'	–	–	–	27 (27%)	–
6 Josip Šutalo D	5.6	89'	–	–	1	62 (56%)	–
4 Joško Gvardiol D	5.3	89'	–	–	–	43 (39%)	–

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

Naša prognoza

Teška pobeda ili remi za England

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.2%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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England

WLWWW

Croatia

LWWLL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 17, 2026, England will host Croatia, a rematch of the 2018 semi-final. England boasts a strong attacking lineup, highlighted by Harry Kane, who has consistently been among the top scorers in international tournaments. Croatia, while traditionally solid defensively, will need to leverage their midfield strength, particularly Luka Modrić, to control the game's tempo. Historically, England has a slight edge, winning three of their last five encounters. Key factors will include England's ability to capitalize on set pieces and Croatia's tactical flexibility. The match promises to be competitive, with both teams looking to assert dominance early in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

55%

45%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

17%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Croatia goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	6	3	1
1	13	13	5	1
2	12	9	4	1
3	6	5	2	1
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ England goals · most likely 1–1 (13.2%)

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Players in form

England

J. Bellingham 7 gls

H. Kane 6 gls

Croatia

No scorer data.

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

55%

Draw

28%

Away Win

17%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

76% Home (No Draw) 24% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

30% Home Win by 2+ 6% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

55% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 17% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.5%	5.7%	2.9%	0.8%	0.2%
1	12.9%	13.2%	4.7%	1.3%	0.3%
2	11.6%	9.4%	3.8%	1.0%	0.2%
3	6.2%	5.0%	2.0%	0.6%	0.1%
4	2.5%	2.0%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	England	Draw	Croatia
England	34.5%	3.8%	1.0%
Draw	19.4%	18.5%	7.5%
Croatia	2.1%	3.7%	9.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

81%

1.5

19%

95%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

44%

36%

15%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: England vs Croatia

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

England — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Jul	A France	W	4 - 6
15 Jul	H Argentina	L	1 - 2
11 Jul	A Norway	W	1 - 2
06 Jul	A Mexico	W	2 - 3
01 Jul	H Congo DR	W	2 - 1

Croatia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Jul	A Portugal	L	2 - 1
27 Jun	H Ghana	W	2 - 1
23 Jun	A Panama	W	0 - 1
17 Jun	A England	L	4 - 2
01 Apr	A Brazil	L	3 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Croatia

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Zlatko Dalic

1 Livaković

4 Gvardiol

22 Vušković

6 Šutalo

14 Perišić

15 Pašalić

10 Modrić

2 Stanišić

16 Baturina

17 Sučić

26 Musa

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Dominik Livaković	G
6	Josip Šutalo	D
22	Luka Vušković	D
4	Joško Gvardiol	D
2	Josip Stanišić	M
10	Luka Modrić	M
15	Mario Pašalić	M
14	Ivan Perišić	M
17	Petar Sučić	F
16	Martin Baturina	F
26	Petar Musa	F

Substitutes

8	Mateo Kovačić	M
24	Marco Pašalić	F
20	Igor Matanović	F
23	Dominik Kotarski	G
12	Ivor Pandur	G
5	Duje Ćaleta-Car	D
3	Marin Pongračić	D
25	Martin Erlić	D
18	Kristijan Jakić	M
21	Luka Sučić	M
7	Nikola Moro	M
13	Nikola Vlašić	M
19	Toni Fruk	M
9	Andrej Kramarić	F
11	Ante Budimir	F

England

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Thomas Tuchel

1 Pickford

3 O'Reilly

5 Stones

2 Konsa

24 James

4 Rice

8 Anderson

18 Gordon

10 Bellingham

20 Madueke

9 Kane

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Jordan Pickford	G
24	Reece James	D
2	Ezri Konsa	D
5	John Stones	D
3	Nico O'Reilly	D
8	Elliot Anderson	M
4	Declan Rice	M
20	Noni Madueke	M
10	Jude Bellingham	M
18	Anthony Gordon	M
9	Harry Kane	F

Substitutes

13	Dean Henderson	G
23	James Trafford	G
15	Dan Burn	D
25	Djed Spence	D
26	Jarell Quansah	D
6	Marc Guéhi	D
21	Eberechi Eze	M
14	Jordan Henderson	M
16	Kobbie Mainoo	M
17	Morgan Rogers	M
7	Bukayo Saka	F
22	Ivan Toney	F
11	Marcus Rashford	F
19	Ollie Watkins	F