Monaco vs Lens Parashikim

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 5

Post on X

Lens

Away

Stade Louis-II, Monaco

Parashikim AI Monaco ose barazim

48%

26%

Fitore e ekipit vendas Barazim Fitore e mysafirit

Parashikimi Monaco vs Lens: Sportiko i jep Monaco 48% probabilitet fitese, Lens 26% dhe barazimit 26%. Përditësuar së fundmi 18 Sep 2026, 20:44.

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Match Report

Monaco secured a 2–1 victory over Lens in Ligue 1's fifth round, with the decisive moments coming either side of half-time. The game's early narrative was shaped by a VAR intervention that cancelled a penalty for Lens in the 20th minute, before Paris Brunner broke the deadlock with a composed finish on 32 minutes to send Monaco into the break with a slender lead. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Monaco win as the most likely outcome at 48%, a call that proved correct.

Lens drew level shortly after the restart through Matthieu Udol in the 57th minute, briefly threatening to turn the contest. However, Monaco regained the advantage in unfortunate circumstances for Lens, as J. Gradit turned the ball into his own net on 84 minutes to hand the hosts all three points.

Despite Lens enjoying the greater share of attacking threat — registering 12 total shots and eight corner kicks to Monaco's nine and two respectively — it was the home side who showed greater clinical efficiency, converting two of their six shots on target to claim a hard-fought win.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

🖵 20'

Michaël Cuisance Penalty cancelled

Paris Brunner assist: Matthis Abline

32' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 45'

Jean-Clair Todibo ⇄ J. Gradit

HT 1–0

▮ 53'

Florian Thauvin Yellow Card

⚽ 1–1 57'

Matthieu Udol assist: Florian Thauvin

⇄ 58'

Mezian Mesloub ⇄ Thorgan Hazard

⇄ 58'

Abdallah Sima ⇄ Odsonne Édouard

E. Diop ⇄ Mathys Detourbet

62' ⇄

⇄ 69'

Junior Kadile ⇄ Michał Skóraś

Lamine Camara Yellow Card

71' ▮

⇄ 72'

Amadou Haidara ⇄ Andrija Bulatovic

Matthis Abline ⇄ Folarin Balogun

76' ⇄

Denis Zakaria ⇄ Pape Cabral

76' ⇄

J. Gradit Own Goal

84' ⚽ 2–1

Paris Brunner ⇄ M. Salisu

90+2' ⇄

FT 2–1

Monaco

Match Stats

Lens

52% Ball Possession 48%

9 Total Shots 12

6 Shots on Goal 4

2 Shots off Goal 4

1 Blocked Shots 4

6 Shots insidebox 10

3 Shots outsidebox 2

2 Corner Kicks 8

3 Offsides 1

13 Fouls 11

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

529 Total passes 526

464 Passes accurate 451

11 Free Kicks 13

Monaco

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
29 Paris Brunner F	7.9	89'	1	–	3	13 (9%)	–
11 Matthis Abline F	7.2	76'	–	1	3	10 (9%)	–
2 Vanderson D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	7
72 Sadibou Sané D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	74 (70%)	1
1 Lukáš Hrádecký G	6.8	90'	–	–	–	31 (28%)	–
10 Aleksandr Golovin M	6.8	90'	–	–	1	42 (33%)	4
9 Folarin Balogun F	6.7	14'	–	–	1	2 (1%)	–
7 Mathys Detourbet F	6.7	28'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	2
15 Eric Dier D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	99 (90%)	–
6 Denis Zakaria M	6.5	76'	–	–	1	44 (39%)	2
20 Nazinho D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	59 (51%)	–
8 Lamine Camara M	6.4	90'	–	–	–	59 (52%)	1
19 Pape Cabral M	6.4	14'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	2
37 E. Diop M	6.3	62'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	2
22 M. Salisu D	0.0	1'	–	–	–	–	1

Lens

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Matthieu Udol D	7.5	90'	1	–	2	77 (62%)	3
40 Robin Risser G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	50 (37%)	–
32 Kyllian Antonio D	6.9	90'	–	–	1	65 (60%)	5
5 Andrija Bulatovic M	6.8	18'	–	–	–	14 (14%)	1
24 J. Gradit D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	35 (33%)	1
11 Odsonne Édouard F	6.6	32'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
19 Abdallah Sima F	6.5	58'	–	–	2	10 (7%)	1
20 Jean-Clair Todibo D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	27 (26%)	3
10 Florian Thauvin M	6.4	90'	–	1	2	35 (25%)	–
2 Ruben Aguilar M	6.4	90'	–	–	–	36 (34%)	2
21 Amadou Haidara M	6.3	72'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	–
27 Michaël Cuisance M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	53 (47%)	–
38 Mezian Mesloub M	6.3	58'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	–
28 Junior Kadile M	6.1	69'	–	–	–	21 (16%)	–
22 Michał Skóraś F	6.1	21'	–	–	–	16 (15%)	–
9 Thorgan Hazard M	6.0	32'	–	–	2	12 (11%)	–

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Confidence Low (48%)

At a glance

Analizat tona

Monaco ose barazim

Most likely score

1:1 · 12.2%

Both teams to score

61%

Over 2.5 goals

59%

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Monaco

WDWWW

Lens

LDWLL

Last 3 meetings Monaco · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash, Monaco faces Lens, both teams showcasing strong attacking capabilities. Monaco has averaged 2.1 goals per match this season, while Lens has been solid defensively, conceding only 0.9 goals per game. Historically, matches between these teams have been closely contested, with Monaco having a slight edge in recent head-to-heads. Key players to watch include Monaco's prolific forward and Lens' resilient defense, which will be crucial in determining the match outcome. With both teams aiming for a top position, expect an intense and tactical battle.

Live insights

86' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 2-1! Monaco win probability: 95%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 12.7%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Still level at 1-1. Draw looking likely at 64.9%. Late goal chance: 39.5%.

59' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 47.3%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 1-0. Monaco leads. Win probability: 77.3%. Over 0.5 more goals: 76.7%.

33' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Monaco win: 76.1%. BTTS: 55%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

48%

45%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

26%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lens goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	6	5	4	2
1	7	12	7	3	1
2	8	10	6	3	1
3	5	6	4	2
4	2	3	2	1
5	1	1	1

↑ Monaco goals · most likely 1–1 (12.2%)

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Players in form

Monaco

Paris Josua Brunner 4 gls

Lens

F. Thauvin 3 gls

F. Ivanović 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

48%

Draw

26%

Away Win

26%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

65% Home (No Draw) 35% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

27% Home Win by 2+ 11% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

48% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 26% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

94%

18%

1.5

82%

42%

2.5

59%

64%

3.5

36%

82%

4.5

18%

92%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS Yes 39% BTTS No

Exact Goals

12%

24%

23%

17%

11%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	6.2%	4.6%	3.8%	1.6%	0.5%
1	7.2%	12.2%	6.8%	2.9%	0.9%
2	7.7%	9.7%	6.1%	2.6%	0.8%
3	4.6%	5.8%	3.7%	1.5%	0.5%
4	2.1%	2.6%	1.7%	0.7%	0.2%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

44%

1.5

56%

73%

2.5

27%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

16%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Monaco	Draw	Lens
Monaco	30.0%	4.8%	2.3%
Draw	16.9%	15.5%	10.9%
Lens	2.7%	4.0%	13.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Monaco vs Lens

1 Monaco Wins

0 Draws

2 Lens Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
21 Feb 2026	Lens	2 - 3	Monaco
08 Nov 2025	Monaco	1 - 4	Lens
17 May 2025	Lens	4 - 0	Monaco

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Monaco — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Lens	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Strasbourg	D	1 - 1
04 Sep	A Paris Saint Germain	W	1 - 2
30 Aug	H Marseille	W	2 - 0
27 Aug	H Gornik Zabrze	W	4 - 1

Lens — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Monaco	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	A Le Mans	D	2 - 2
10 Sep	A Slavia Praha	W	2 - 3
05 Sep	H Lorient	L	0 - 1
29 Aug	A Strasbourg	L	2 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2

Monaco

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Filipe Luís

1 Hrádecký

20 Nazinho

15 Dier

72 Sané

2 Vanderson

10 Golovin

6 Zakaria

8 Camara

37 Diop

29 Brunner

11 Abline

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	L. Hrádecký	G
2	Vanderson	D
72	Sadibou Sané	D
15	E. Dier	D
20	Flávio Nazinho	D
37	E. Diop	M
8	L. Camara	M
6	D. Zakaria	M
10	A. Golovin	M
11	M. Abline	F
29	Paris Josua Brunner	F

Substitutes

9	F. Balogun	F
47	S. Benzahra	M
19	Pape Cabral	M
7	M. Detourbet	F
16	P. Köhn	G
13	C. Mawissa Elebi	D
18	T. Minamino	M
22	M. Salisu	D
49	I. Touré	M

Lens

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Horacio Melgarejo

40 Risser

14 Udol

20 Todibo

32 Antonio

28 Kadile

21 Haidara

27 Cuisance

2 Aguilar

38 Mesloub

10 Thauvin

19 Sima

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
40	R. Risser	G
32	K. Antonio	D
20	J. Todibo	D
14	M. Udol	D
2	R. Aguilar	M
27	M. Cuisance	M
21	A. Haidara	M
28	J. Kadile	M
10	F. Thauvin	M
38	Mezian Mesloub	M
19	A. Sima	F

Substitutes

7	F. Sotoca	F
11	O. Édouard	F
16	M. Gorgelin	G
24	J. Gradit	D
9	T. Hazard	M
29	F. Ivanović	F
31	S. Sagnan	D
22	M. Skóraś	F
5	A. Bulatović	M