Derry City vs CSKA Sofia Parashikim

UEFA Europa League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Derry City

Home

1 : 2

HT 0 - 0

Ndeshja e parë 2-3 · Agregate 3-5

CSKA Sofia

Away

Parashikim AI CSKA Sofia ose barazim

27%

28%

45%

Fitore e ekipit vendas Barazim Fitore e mysafirit

Parashikimi Derry City vs CSKA Sofia: Sportiko i jep Derry City 27% probabilitet fitese, CSKA Sofia 45% dhe barazimit 28%. Përditësuar së fundmi 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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2nd Half Over 0.5 76%
Nën 3.5 Gola 72%

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Match Report

CSKA Sofia edged out Derry City 2–1 in the first qualifying round of the UEFA Europa League, with all the action coming in a lively second half after a goalless opening 45 minutes.

The Bulgarian side struck almost immediately after the restart, with Ellis Chapman netting just a minute into the second half to give CSKA Sofia the lead. Chapman was then withdrawn at the hour mark as both teams made tactical adjustments, and a second CSKA goal arrived around the 75th minute to double their advantage. Our pre-match AI model had rated a CSKA Sofia win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that proved correct.

Derry City gave themselves a lifeline deep into stoppage time when Barry Cotter turned the ball into his own net in the 90+18th minute, but it proved too little too late for the Irish side. A flurry of yellow cards across the second half and extended injury time added to a fractious finish, as CSKA Sofia held on to progress to the next round of qualifying.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

▮ 46'

Yellow Card

Kévin Santos

46' ⇄

Ellis Chapman assist: Brandon Fleming

47' ⚽ 1–0

⇄ 58'

▮ 64'

Yellow Card

⇄ 66'

Ellis Chapman ⇄ James Clarke

66' ⇄

Yellow Card

67' ▮

⚽ 1–1 75'

77' ⇄

James Olayinka ⇄ Cameron Dummigan

77' ⇄

▮ 82'

Yellow Card

▮ 90+13'

Yellow Card

⇄ 90+16'

⚽ 1–2 90+18'

Barry Cotter Own Goal

FT 1–2

Derry City

Match Stats

CSKA Sofia

Ball Possession

Expected Goals (xG)

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Shots off Goal

Blocked Shots

Shots insidebox

Shots outsidebox

Corner Kicks

Offsides

Fouls

1 Yellow Cards 4

0 Red Cards 0

Goalkeeper Saves

Total passes

Passes accurate

Passes %

goals_prevented

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Analizat tona

CSKA Sofia ose barazim

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

51%

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Derry City

WDWWD

CSKA Sofia

DWWWD

Last 1 meetings Derry City · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

Derry City faces CSKA Sofia in the UEFA Europa League, with both teams looking to secure vital points in the group stage. Derry City has shown resilience in recent domestic matches, while CSKA Sofia brings a wealth of European experience. Statistically, Derry City has a solid home record, but CSKA Sofia's ability to adapt in away games could level the playing field. Key players to watch include Derry's attacking threats and CSKA's dynamic midfield, which could be pivotal in controlling the match tempo. This clash promises to be competitive, with both sides eager to make their mark.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

CSKA Sofia goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	8	9	8	4	2	1
1	6	14	9	5	2	1
2	4	7	5	3	1
3	2	3	2	1
4		1	1
5

↑ Derry City goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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Players in form

Derry City

No scorer data.

CSKA Sofia

Bruno Jordão 1 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

28%

Home Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

45%

Draw

28%

Home Win

27%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

63% Away (No Draw) 37% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

23% Away Win by 2+ 11% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Away Scores More 28% Equal Goals 27% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

23%

1.5

77%

49%

2.5

51%

72%

3.5

28%

87%

4.5

13%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

15%

26%

22%

15%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.3%	8.9%	8.2%	4.2%	1.7%
1	6.1%	13.6%	9.4%	4.9%	1.9%
2	4.4%	6.9%	5.4%	2.8%	1.1%
3	1.7%	2.7%	2.1%	1.1%	0.4%
4	0.5%	0.8%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

64%

1.5

36%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

31%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

55%

1.5

45%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Derry City	Draw	CSKA Sofia
Derry City	15.4%	4.5%	2.4%
Draw	10.3%	17.5%	16.3%
CSKA Sofia	1.6%	4.4%	27.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

54%

1.5

46%

80%

2.5

20%

93%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

42%

0.5

58%

79%

1.5

21%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Derry City vs CSKA Sofia

0 Derry City Wins

0 Draws

1 CSKA Sofia Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Jul 2026	CSKA Sofia	3 - 2	Derry City

Derry City — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Galway United	W	1 - 0
14 Sep	A Waterford	D	2 - 2
11 Sep	A Shelbourne	W	0 - 1
06 Sep	H Dundalk	W	4 - 2
30 Aug	H Shamrock Rovers	D	3 - 3

CSKA Sofia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lokomotiv Plovdiv	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	A Lokomotiv Sofia	W	0 - 2
12 Sep	H Arda Kardzhali	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Levski Sofia	W	2 - 4
05 Sep	A Spartak Varna	D	1 - 1

UEFA Europa League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
2	Crystal Palace	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
3	Sparta Praha	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
4	Beşiktaş	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
5	Union St. Gilloise	1	1	0	0	3	0	+3	3
6	Ferencvarosi TC	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Benfica	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
8	Bayer Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	OFI	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
10	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
11	Lyon	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
12	Torreense	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
13	Olympiakos Piraeus	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Red Bull Salzburg	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
15	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	Omonia Nicosia	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	Sturm Graz	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
18	Rennes	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
19	Dinamo Zagreb	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
20	Hapoel Beer Sheva	1	0	1	0	0	0	0	1
21	Jagiellonia	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
22	Real Sociedad	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
23	Anderlecht	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
24	Lillestrom	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
25	Celta Vigo	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
26	AZ Alkmaar	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
27	Levski Sofia	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Celtic	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
29	1899 Hoffenheim	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
30	AC Milan	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
31	Celje	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	Marseille	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Ararat-Armenia	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
34	Plzen	1	0	0	1	0	3	-3	0
35	Lech Poznan	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
36	NEC Nijmegen	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

CSKA Sofia

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Hristo Yanev

25 Evtimov

32 Rodríguez

30 Panayotov

14 Ivanov

17 Martino

8 Sensi

6 Jordão

94 Solet

2 Pastor

9 Godoy

28 Pittas

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
25	Dimitar Evtimov	G
14	Teodor Ivanov	D
30	Petko Panayotov	M
32	Facundo Rodríguez	D
2	Pastor	D
94	Isaac Solet	M
6	Bruno Jordão	M
8	Stefano Sensi	M
17	Ángelo Martino	D
28	Ioannis Pittas	F
9	Leandro Godoy	F

Substitutes

31	Daniel Nikolov	G
91	Aleks Tunchev	D
5	Jean-Philippe Gbamin	D
19	Andrey Yordanov	D
3	Tamimou Ouorou	D
34	Vasil Kaymakanov	M
11	Mohamed Amine Brahimi	M
38	Léo Pereira	M
77	Alejandro Piedrahita	M
80	Georgi Chorbadzhiyski	M
99	James Eto'o	M
10	Joël Zwarts	F

Derry City

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Tiernan Lynch

1 Maher

19 Fleming

3 McClean

25 Grogan

22 Barr

14 Chapman

28 Olayinka

8 O'Reilly

21 Santos

7 Duffy

2 Cotter

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Brian Maher	G
22	Conor Barr	D
25	Christy Grogan	D
3	Patrick McClean	D
19	Brandon Fleming	M
8	Adam O'Reilly	M
28	James Olayinka	M
14	Ellis Chapman	M
2	Barry Cotter	M
7	Michael Duffy	M
21	Kévin Santos	M

Substitutes

26	Shea Callister	G
13	Tom Norcott	G
4	Jamie Stott	D
6	Robert Slevin	D
23	Cameron Dummigan	D
15	James Clarke	M
16	James McClean	M
17	Nick Twisk	M
35	Liam Kelly	M
32	Terence Doherty	F