Fluminense vs Palmeiras Napoved

Serie A · Regular Season - 23

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Fluminense

Home

3 : 2

HT 1 - 1

Palmeiras

Away

UI napoved Palmeiras ali neodločeno

27%

31%

42%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Fluminense proti Palmeiras: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Fluminense na 27%, za Palmeiras na 42%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 31%. Zadnja posodobitev: 16 Aug 2026, 00:03.

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 10'

Gustavo Gómez assist: Joaquín Piquerez

▮ 34'

Joaquín Piquerez Yellow Card

Hulk assist: Agustín Canobbio

42' ⚽ 1–1

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Vitor Roque ⇄ Ramón Sosa

⇄ 46'

Joaquín Piquerez ⇄ Arthur Gabriel

Igor Rabello ⇄ Julián Millán

54' ⇄

Guga Yellow Card

61' ▮

Agustín Canobbio Yellow Card

63' ▮

Hulk ⇄ Germán Cano

69' ⇄

Ganso ⇄ Luciano Acosta

69' ⇄

▮ 73'

Arthur Gabriel Yellow Card

⇄ 73'

Jhon Arias ⇄ Emiliano Martínez

⇄ 73'

Andreas Pereira ⇄ Mauricio

Luciano Acosta Yellow Card

78' ▮

Hércules ⇄ Nonato

79' ⇄

Yeferson Soteldo ⇄ Kevin Serna

79' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Ramón Sosa ⇄ Felipe Anderson

⚽ 1–2 82'

Mauricio assist: José Manuel López

Kevin Serna

85' ⚽ 2–2

Martinelli Yellow Card

86' ▮

Germán Cano assist: Martinelli

90+2' ⚽ 3–2

▮ 90+5'

Gustavo Gómez Yellow Card

FT 3–2

Fluminense

Match Stats

Palmeiras

60% Ball Possession 40%

2.72 Expected Goals (xG) 1.68

17 Total Shots 15

6 Shots on Goal 7

8 Shots off Goal 5

3 Blocked Shots 3

13 Shots insidebox 9

4 Shots outsidebox 6

5 Corner Kicks 5

0 Offsides 1

16 Fouls 17

4 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

5 Goalkeeper Saves 3

486 Total passes 318

430 Passes accurate 260

88% Passes % 82%

-0.57 goals_prevented -0.57

Fluminense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Guga D	7.7	90'	–	–	–	54 (45%)	7
7 Hulk F	7.7	69'	1	–	2	24 (19%)	–
10 Ganso M	7.5	69'	–	–	1	52 (48%)	3
21 Igor Rabello D	7.5	54'	–	–	–	33 (32%)	4
17 Agustín Canobbio M	7.3	90'	–	1	3	33 (28%)	2
1 Fábio G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	–
90 Kevin Serna F	7.2	11'	1	–	1	7 (7%)	–
35 Hércules M	6.9	79'	–	–	1	41 (39%)	1
44 Jemmes D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	44 (39%)	1
8 Martinelli M	6.6	90'	–	1	1	51 (47%)	–
14 Germán Cano F	6.6	21'	1	–	3	6 (5%)	–
30 Yeferson Soteldo M	6.3	79'	–	–	2	31 (29%)	–
16 Nonato M	6.3	11'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	–
29 Julián Millán D	6.2	36'	–	–	–	24 (18%)	–
6 Renê D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	57 (48%)	3
32 Luciano Acosta M	6.2	21'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	–

Palmeiras

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
42 José Manuel López F	7.7	90'	–	1	2	24 (19%)	2
15 Gustavo Gómez D	7.2	90'	1	–	2	30 (22%)	2
18 Mauricio M	7.2	17'	1	–	1	7 (6%)	–
8 Andreas Pereira M	7.2	73'	–	–	–	33 (31%)	–
1 Carlos Miguel G	7.0	90'	–	–	–	22 (16%)	–
19 Ramón Sosa F	6.9	35'	–	–	1	6 (4%)	–
32 Emiliano Martínez M	6.7	17'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	–
17 Marlon Freitas M	6.6	90'	–	–	–	56 (50%)	–
40 Allan M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	24 (18%)	2
7 Felipe Anderson M	6.5	10'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	1
56 Arthur Gabriel D	6.5	45'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	3
26 Murilo D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	26 (18%)	2
4 Agustín Giay D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	32 (27%)	1
22 Joaquín Piquerez D	6.2	45'	–	1	–	15 (13%)	2
11 Jhon Arias M	6.0	73'	–	–	2	13 (12%)	3
9 Vitor Roque F	5.9	45'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–

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Confidence Low (42%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Palmeiras ali neodločeno

Most likely score

0:1 · 15.8%

Both teams to score

39%

Over 2.5 goals

34%

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Fluminense

WLLWW

Palmeiras

DWWDD

Last 3 meetings Fluminense · 0W 1D 2L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

27%

10%

Draw

31%

45%

Away

42%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Palmeiras goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	14	16	12	5	2
1	7	14	8	4	1
2	3	4	3	1
3	1	1	1
4
5

↑ Fluminense goals · most likely 0–1 (15.8%)

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Players in form

Fluminense

John Kennedy 9 gls

Hulk 7 gls

Palmeiras

J. López 8 gls

Maurício 7 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

31%

Home Win

27%

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

42%

Draw

31%

Home Win

27%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

74% Away (No Draw) 26% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

25% Away Win by 2+ 5% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

51% Away Scores More 31% Equal Goals 18% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

66%

2.5

34%

85%

3.5

15%

94%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

61% BTTS No 39% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

23%

29%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	14.4%	15.8%	11.8%	5.4%	1.8%
1	7.4%	13.8%	8.3%	3.8%	1.3%
2	3.1%	4.3%	2.9%	1.3%	0.5%
3	0.7%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%
4	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

35%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

34%

22%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Fluminense	Draw	Palmeiras
Fluminense	9.6%	3.4%	1.6%
Draw	8.1%	22.1%	18.9%
Palmeiras	0.8%	3.7%	31.8%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

97%

2.5

99%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

50%

35%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

73%

0.5

27%

96%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

68%

0.5

32%

94%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Fluminense vs Palmeiras

0 Fluminense Wins

1 Draws

2 Palmeiras Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
26 Feb 2026	Palmeiras	2 - 1	Fluminense
22 Nov 2025	Palmeiras	0 - 0	Fluminense
23 Jul 2025	Fluminense	1 - 2	Palmeiras

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Fluminense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Corinthians	W	1 - 3
15 Sep	A Platense	L	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Atletico-MG	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	H Platense	W	2 - 0
06 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	W	1 - 0

Palmeiras — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Gremio	D	0 - 0
12 Sep	H Sao Paulo	W	2 - 0
09 Sep	H LDU de Quito	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Botafogo	D	0 - 0
03 Sep	A Santos	D	0 - 0

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Palmeiras

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Abel Ferreira

1 Miguel

22 Piquerez

15 Gómez

26 Murilo

4 Giay

11 Arias

17 Freitas

8 Pereira

40 Allan

9 Roque

42 López

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Carlos Miguel	G
4	Agustín Giay	D
26	Murilo	D
15	Gustavo Gómez	D
22	Joaquín Piquerez	D
40	Allan	M
8	Andreas Pereira	M
17	Marlon Freitas	M
11	Jhon Arias	M
42	José Manuel López	F
9	Vitor Roque	F

Substitutes

56	Arthur Gabriel	D
19	Ramón Sosa	F
18	Mauricio	M
32	Emiliano Martínez	M
7	Felipe Anderson	M
21	Kaique	G
14	Marcelo Lomba	G
3	Bruno Fuchs	D
43	Luis Benedetti	D
50	Luis Pacheco	M
30	Lucas Evangelista	M
39	Heittor	F

Fluminense

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Francisco Zubeldia Luis

1 Fábio

6 Renê

44 Jemmes

21 Rabello

23 Guga

8 Martinelli

35 Hércules

30 Soteldo

10 Ganso

17 Canobbio

7 Hulk

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Fábio	G
23	Guga	D
21	Igor Rabello	D
44	Jemmes	D
6	Renê	D
35	Hércules	M
8	Martinelli	M
17	Agustín Canobbio	M
10	Ganso	M
30	Yeferson Soteldo	M
7	Hulk	F

Substitutes

29	Julián Millán	D
32	Luciano Acosta	M
14	Germán Cano	F
90	Kevin Serna	F
16	Nonato	M
98	Vitor Eudes	G
3	Thiago Silva	D
46	Júlio Fidelis	D
2	Samuel Xavier	D
11	Jefferson Savarino	F
94	Otávio	M
19	Rodrigo Castillo	F