FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München Napoved

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 29

Post on X

Bayern München

Away

Millerntor-Stadion, Hamburg

UI napoved Bayern München zmaga

13%

80%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved FC St. Pauli proti Bayern München: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za FC St. Pauli na 7%, za Bayern München na 80%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 13%. Zadnja posodobitev: 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Bayern München made light work of FC St. Pauli at the Millerntor, running out convincing 5–0 winners in Bundesliga Matchday 29. Jamal Musiala broke the deadlock as early as the ninth minute, and although Bayern led by just a single goal at the break, their dominance was reflected in an expected goals figure of 3.84 to St. Pauli's 0.49, with the hosts controlling 77% of possession throughout.

The match effectively ended as a contest within a frantic three-minute spell after the restart. Leon Goretzka and Michael Olise both struck in the 53rd and 55th minutes respectively, turning a tight scoreline into a rout. Both goals came moments after yellow cards were shown to Olise and St. Pauli's Joel Chima Fujita, adding further drama to an eventful second-half opening. Nicolas Jackson added a fourth on 65 minutes before a fifth arrived late on, with a Goretzka effort subsequently ruled out by VAR in stoppage time.

The result was no surprise to those following the data closely — our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 80%, a call that proved entirely justified.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 9'

Jamal Musiala assist: Konrad Laimer

▮ 19'

Konrad Laimer Yellow Card

HT 0–1

Joel Chima Fujita Yellow Card

52' ▮

▮ 52'

Michael Olise Yellow Card

⚽ 0–2 53'

Leon Goretzka

⚽ 0–3 55'

Michael Olise assist: Leon Goretzka

⇄ 58'

Konrad Laimer ⇄ Josip Stanišić

⇄ 59'

Michael Olise ⇄ Luis Díaz

⇄ 59'

Joshua Kimmich ⇄ Alphonso Davies

⚽ 0–4 65'

Nicolas Jackson assist: Jamal Musiala

Joel Chima Fujita ⇄ Connor Metcalfe

66' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Hiroki Itō ⇄ Jonathan Tah

Andreas Hountondji ⇄ Martijn Kaars

77' ⇄

Lars Ritzka ⇄ Louis Oppie

77' ⇄

⇄ 84'

Jamal Musiala ⇄ Bara Sapoko Ndiaye

⚽ 0–5 88'

Mathias Pereira Lage ⇄ Taichi Hara

89' ⇄

🖵 90+6'

Leon Goretzka Goal cancelled

FT 0–5

FC St. Pauli

Match Stats

Bayern München

23% Ball Possession 77%

0.49 Expected Goals (xG) 3.84

6 Total Shots 20

3 Shots on Goal 8

2 Shots off Goal 5

1 Blocked Shots 7

4 Shots insidebox 16

2 Shots outsidebox 4

3 Corner Kicks 4

2 Offsides 3

9 Fouls 7

1 Yellow Cards 2

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 3

272 Total passes 946

200 Passes accurate 873

74% Passes % 92%

0.27 goals_prevented 0.27

FC St. Pauli

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
20 Mathias Rasmussen M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	29 (20%)	5
28 Mathias Pereira Lage F	6.7	88'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	2
5 Hauke Wahl D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	30 (29%)	2
19 Martijn Kaars F	6.5	13'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
27 Andreas Hountondji F	6.5	77'	–	–	1	5 (4%)	–
24 Connor Metcalfe M	6.3	24'	–	–	1	3 (2%)	–
11 Arkadiusz Pyrka M	6.3	90'	–	–	–	17 (11%)	3
18 Taichi Hara F	6.3	8'	–	–	–	–	–
10 Danel Sinani F	6.2	90'	–	–	–	25 (16%)	–
23 Louis Oppie D	6.2	13'	–	–	–	7 (4%)	–
21 Lars Ritzka M	6.2	77'	–	–	–	24 (15%)	4
16 Joel Chima Fujita M	6.0	66'	–	–	1	18 (16%)	1
3 Karol Mets D	5.7	90'	–	–	–	40 (32%)	2
22 Nikola Vasilj G	5.2	90'	–	–	–	33 (20%)	–
15 Tomoya Ando D	5.2	90'	–	–	1	26 (20%)	1

Bayern München

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
6 Joshua Kimmich M	8.9	59'	–	–	–	103 (100%)	–
3 Kim Min-jae D	8.3	90'	–	–	–	127 (123%)	1
4 Jonathan Tah D	8.3	23'	–	–	–	52 (52%)	–
8 Leon Goretzka M	8.3	90'	1	1	1	101 (91%)	2
17 Michael Olise M	7.9	59'	1	–	2	34 (26%)	–
20 Tom Bischof D	7.6	90'	–	–	1	104 (97%)	4
19 Alphonso Davies D	7.3	31'	–	–	–	45 (44%)	–
1 Manuel Neuer G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	38 (35%)	–
11 Nicolas Jackson F	7.2	90'	1	1	4	30 (24%)	1
27 Konrad Laimer D	7.2	58'	–	1	1	44 (39%)	1
21 Hiroki Itō D	7.2	67'	–	–	–	71 (65%)	–
22 Raphaël Guerreiro M	7.2	90'	1	–	2	76 (65%)	1
10 Jamal Musiala M	7.0	84'	1	1	2	36 (29%)	–
39 Bara Sapoko Ndiaye F	7.0	12'	–	–	–	17 (17%)	1
44 Josip Stanišić D	6.9	32'	–	–	–	38 (37%)	–
14 Luis Díaz F	6.0	31'	–	–	–	30 (29%)	1

Premium

Odkleni celotno analizo AI za FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München

Vseh 70+ verjetnostnih trgov
UI poglobljeno poročilo o tekmi
Value Edge — model proti trgu
Vrste izbir, ki jih izberete

Postani Premium

Confidence Medium (58%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Bayern München zmaga

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

FC St. Pauli

DWDLL

Bayern München

WWWDW

Last 3 meetings FC St. Pauli · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

FC St. Pauli will host Bayern München in what promises to be a challenging match for the home side. Historically, Bayern has dominated this fixture, winning 80% of their encounters in recent years. FC St. Pauli currently sits mid-table, struggling with consistency, while Bayern is likely to be competing for the title, showcasing their depth and attacking prowess. Key players to watch include Bayern’s prolific striker, who has consistently found the net, and St. Pauli's defensive unit, which will need to be at its best to contain the visitors. Expect a high-tempo match with Bayern looking to assert their dominance early on.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Bayern München goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	3	10	13	12	8	5
1	2	6	9	8	6	3
2	1	2	3	3	2	1
3			1	1
4
5

↑ FC St. Pauli goals · most likely 0–2 (13.3%)

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Players in form

FC St. Pauli

No scorer data.

Bayern München

M. Olise 4 gls

H. Kane 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

Zakaj ta izbira? · Premium UI poglobljena analiza · Premium

You're seeing the free 1X2 result — unlock all 70+ models: goals, both-teams-to-score, the correct-score grid, handicaps, halves & more.

Unlock all models

Premium

Unlock all 70+ probability models

Upgrade to Premium for every market, AI match previews and live in-play edges.

Upgrade Now

Head to Head: FC St. Pauli vs Bayern München

0 FC St. Pauli Wins

0 Draws

3 Bayern München Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Nov 2025	Bayern München	3 - 1	FC St. Pauli
29 Mar 2025	Bayern München	3 - 2	FC St. Pauli
09 Nov 2024	FC St. Pauli	0 - 1	Bayern München

Prikaži vseh 5 medsebojnih srečanj — Premium

FC St. Pauli — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Energie Cottbus	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H VfL Wolfsburg	W	1 - 0
04 Sep	A Arminia Bielefeld	D	2 - 2
30 Aug	H 1. FC Kaiserslautern	L	1 - 2
23 Aug	A Rot-Weiß Essen	L	2 - 0

Bayern München — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Union Berlin	W	7 - 0
13 Sep	A SV Elversberg	W	1 - 2
10 Sep	H Bodo/Glimt	W	5 - 0
05 Sep	A FC Schalke 04	D	0 - 0
02 Sep	A VfL Osnabrück	W	1 - 4

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0