Ararat-Armenia vs Celje Napoved

UEFA Champions League · 3rd Qualifying Round

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Celje

Away

UI napoved Ararat-Armenia ali neodločeno

40%

29%

31%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Ararat-Armenia proti Celje: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Ararat-Armenia na 40%, za Celje na 31%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 29%. Zadnja posodobitev: 4 Aug 2026, 17:57.

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Timeline

⚽ 0–1 21'

Svit Sešlar Penalty

A. Serobyan

38' ⚽ 1–1

Yellow Card

42' ▮

HT 1–1

⇄ 46'

Veton Tusha ⇄ Yaya Dukuly

▮ 58'

Mario Kvesić Yellow Card

M. Carlier

59' ⇄

A. Serobyan ⇄ França

59' ⇄

⇄ 65'

⇄ Rudi Požeg Vancaš

⇄ 65'

Svit Sešlar ⇄ Andrej Kotnik

França assist: E. Grigoryan

70' ⚽ 2–1

Zidane Banjaqui ⇄ M. Ayvazyan

83' ⇄

Sandro Lima ⇄ P. Ayongo

90' ⇄

Hugo Oliveira

90' ⇄

▮ 90+5'

Papa Daniel Yellow Card

⇄ 90+5'

Papa Daniel

FT 2–1

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Confidence Low (40%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Ararat-Armenia ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 13.6%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

48%

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Ararat-Armenia

WLWWL

Celje

DLLLW

Last 2 meetings Ararat-Armenia · 1W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Champions League match between Ararat-Armenia and Celje, both teams will look to gain an early advantage in the group stage. Ararat-Armenia has shown a solid defensive structure, conceding an average of 0.8 goals per game in their last five matches. Conversely, Celje boasts a potent attack, averaging 2.1 goals per game in their recent outings. The matchup will hinge on whether Ararat-Armenia can withstand pressure from Celje's offense while capitalizing on any defensive lapses. Both teams will aim for a strategic approach to secure crucial points in this prestigious tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

40%

45%

Draw

29%

45%

Away

31%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Celje goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	6	4	1
1	10	14	6	2	1
2	9	10	5	2
3	5	5	3	1
4	2	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Ararat-Armenia goals · most likely 1–1 (13.6%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

31%

Draw

29%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

40%

Away Win

31%

Draw

29%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

68% Home (No Draw) 32% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

26% Home Win by 2+ 9% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

49% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 23% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

52%

2.5

48%

74%

3.5

26%

88%

4.5

12%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.1%	6.1%	3.9%	1.3%	0.3%
1	10.4%	13.6%	6.1%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.4%	9.5%	4.8%	1.6%	0.4%
3	5.0%	5.0%	2.5%	0.9%	0.2%
4	2.0%	2.0%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

54%

1.5

46%

81%

2.5

19%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

24%

30%

27%

13%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ararat-Armenia	Draw	Celje
Ararat-Armenia	25.7%	3.1%	1.0%
Draw	21.0%	17.9%	8.2%
Celje	3.5%	5.4%	14.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

21%

0.5

79%

53%

1.5

47%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

21%

33%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

36%

37%

19%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ararat-Armenia vs Celje

1 Ararat-Armenia Wins

0 Draws

1 Celje Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
11 Aug 2026	Celje	2 - 0	Ararat-Armenia
24 Sep 2020	Ararat-Armenia	1 - 0	Celje

Ararat-Armenia — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Shirak	W	1 - 3
16 Sep	H Sparta Praha	L	1 - 4
11 Sep	H Syunik	W	3 - 0
05 Sep	A Ararat	W	0 - 1
31 Aug	A Pyunik Yerevan	L	2 - 1

Celje — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Mura	D	0 - 0
16 Sep	A Bayer Leverkusen	L	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Bravo	L	2 - 1
06 Sep	H Koper	L	0 - 1
02 Sep	A Aluminij	W	0 - 2

UEFA Champions League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	6	1	+5	3
2	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5	1	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	1	6	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Ararat-Armenia

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Tulipa

98 Bravim

16 Grigoryan

47 Malis

43 Wilson

3 Julio

17 Carlier

19 Muradyan

2 Oliveira

11 Banjaqui

91 Lima

77 Serobyan

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
98	João Bravim	G
3	Junior Julio	D
43	Bruno Wilson	D
47	Alexandros Malis	D
16	Edgar Grigoryan	D
2	Hugo Oliveira	D
19	Karen Muradyan	M
17	Maxence Carlier	M
77	Artur Serobyan	M
91	Sandro Lima	F
11	Zidane Banjaqui	M

Substitutes

95	Carlos França	M
20	Alwyn Tera	M
1	Arman Nersesyan	G
14	Bruno Pereira	D
5	Luís Felipe	D
7	Zhirayr Shaghoyan	M
8	Juan Balanta	M
6	Michel Ayvazyan	M
70	Bernardo Dias	M
90	Paul Ayongo	F
9	Arayik Eloyan	F
25	Alioune Ndour	F

Celje

Formation: 3-4-3 Coach: Vitor Campelos

1 Leban

6 Tutyškinas

4 Hrka

2 Širvys

8 Kvesić

19 Zabukovnik

13 Daniel

25 Tusha

11 Avdyli

47 Kučys

10 Sešlar

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Žan-Luk Leban	G
2	Pijus Širvys	D
4	Darko Hrka	M
6	Artemijus Tutyškinas	D
25	Veton Tusha	M
13	Papa Daniel	M
19	Mark Zabukovnik	M
8	Mario Kvesić	M
10	Svit Sešlar	M
47	Armandas Kučys	F
11	Milot Avdyli	M

Substitutes

91	Yaya Dukuly	M
94	Rudi Požeg Vancaš	M
17	Andrej Kotnik	F
23	Žiga Frelih	G
12	Luka Kolar	G
27	Ivan Ćalušić	D
3	Damjan Vuklišević	D
20	Alpha Diounkou	D
33	Leonardo Koutris	D
77	Matic Ivanšek	M
7	Benjamin Verbič	M
99	Matej Poplatnik	F