Estoril vs Alverca Napoved

Primeira Liga · Regular Season - 16

27 Dec 2026, 16:00

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Alverca

Away

Estádio António Coimbra da Mota, Estoril

UI napoved Estoril zmaga ali remi

73%

22%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Estoril proti Alverca: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Estoril na 73%, za Alverca na 5%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 22%. Zadnja posodobitev: 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 21.8%

Both teams to score

22%

Over 2.5 goals

33%

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Estoril

LLDLL

Alverca

WWLDL

Last 2 meetings Estoril · 1W 1D 0L

Match summary

Estoril faces Alverca in a Primeira Liga matchup on December 27, 2026. Estoril has shown a solid home record, particularly in their defensive organization, conceding an average of just 1 goal per match at home this season. In contrast, Alverca has struggled on the road, with a defensive frailty that has seen them leak goals at a rate of 2 per match away from home. The key battle will be Estoril's ability to exploit Alverca's defensive weaknesses while maintaining their defensive discipline. Expect a tightly contested match, but Estoril may have the edge given their current form.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

73%

10%

Draw

22%

45%

Away

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Alverca goals →

	0	1	2
0	14	3	1
1	22	8	1
2	20	6	1
3	12	4	1
4	5	2
5	2	1

↑ Estoril goals · most likely 1–0 (21.8%)

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Players in form

Estoril

No scorer data.

Alverca

D. Camara 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

22%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

44% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

73% Home Scores More 22% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

14%

0.5

86%

38%

1.5

62%

67%

2.5

33%

85%

3.5

15%

95%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

78% BTTS No 22% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

14%

25%

28%

19%

10%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	13.8%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	21.8%	7.7%	1.0%	0.1%	0.0%
2	19.9%	6.0%	0.9%	0.1%	0.0%
3	11.7%	3.5%	0.5%	0.1%	0.0%
4	5.1%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

76%

1.5

24%

93%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

40%

36%

18%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

33%

35%

21%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Estoril	Draw	Alverca
Estoril	47.4%	1.7%	0.2%
Draw	25.1%	17.5%	2.4%
Alverca	1.2%	1.8%	2.7%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

48%

1.5

52%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

17%

31%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

75%

1.5

25%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

100%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

74%

22%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

87%

0.5

13%

99%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

85%

0.5

15%

99%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Estoril vs Alverca

1 Estoril Wins

1 Draws

0 Alverca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
10 May 2026	Alverca	1 - 1	Estoril
27 Dec 2025	Estoril	4 - 1	Alverca

Estoril — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Casa Pia	L	1 - 2
14 Sep	A SC Braga	L	1 - 0
07 Sep	H Arouca	D	0 - 0
31 Aug	A Benfica	L	2 - 1
22 Aug	H Rio Ave	L	0 - 2

Alverca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Rio Ave	W	1 - 0
12 Sep	A Nacional	W	1 - 3
05 Sep	H SC Braga	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Santa Clara	D	1 - 1
22 Aug	A Sporting CP	L	3 - 1

Primeira Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	7	7	0	0	18	3	+15	21
2	Benfica	7	5	1	1	22	7	+15	16
3	Sporting CP	7	4	3	0	17	8	+9	15
4	Santa Clara	7	4	3	0	11	4	+7	15
5	Arouca	7	3	2	2	10	7	+3	11
6	SC Braga	6	3	2	1	7	5	+2	11
7	Academico Viseu	7	3	2	2	9	9	0	11
8	Estrela	7	2	4	1	14	14	0	10
9	GIL Vicente	6	2	2	2	5	5	0	8
10	Alverca	7	2	2	3	9	11	-2	8
11	Maritimo	7	2	2	3	8	12	-4	8
12	Moreirense	7	2	2	3	8	14	-6	8
13	Famalicao	7	1	4	2	9	7	+2	7
14	Vitória SC	7	1	2	4	5	8	-3	5
15	Nacional	7	1	1	5	7	15	-8	4
16	Rio Ave	7	1	1	5	5	15	-10	4
17	Casa Pia	7	1	1	5	3	16	-13	4
18	Estoril	7	0	2	5	3	10	-7	2

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.