FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV Napoved

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 19

30 Jan 2027, 14:30

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Hamburger SV

Away

UI napoved Zahtevna zmaga ali remi ekipe FSV Mainz 05

59%

27%

15%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved FSV Mainz 05 proti Hamburger SV: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za FSV Mainz 05 na 59%, za Hamburger SV na 15%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 27%. Zadnja posodobitev: 31 Aug 2026, 15:57.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

1:0 · 13.7%

Both teams to score

44%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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FSV Mainz 05

WLWDW

Hamburger SV

WLLLW

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 1W 1D 1L

Match summary

FSV Mainz 05 will face Hamburger SV in a Bundesliga clash on January 30, 2027. Historically, Mainz has demonstrated a solid home performance, while Hamburger SV's away form has been mixed in recent seasons. Mainz's defensive resilience, allowing an average of 1.3 goals per match, contrasts with Hamburger's tendency to concede, averaging 1.5 goals against per match. The outcome may hinge on Mainz's ability to capitalize on set pieces, where they have been particularly effective. This matchup is crucial for both teams as they aim to secure points in the competitive league landscape.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

59%

10%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

15%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Hamburger SV goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	10	5	2	1
1	14	12	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	7	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ FSV Mainz 05 goals · most likely 1–0 (13.7%)

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Players in form

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 4 gls

S. Becker 2 gls

Hamburger SV

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

59%

Draw

27%

Away Win

15%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

80% Home (No Draw) 20% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

33% Home Win by 2+ 4% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

59% Home Scores More 27% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

56% BTTS No 44% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

10%

19%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.4%	5.1%	2.4%	0.6%	0.1%
1	13.7%	12.5%	4.0%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.8%	9.3%	3.4%	0.8%	0.2%
3	7.2%	5.3%	1.9%	0.5%	0.1%
4	3.1%	2.2%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

33%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FSV Mainz 05	Draw	Hamburger SV
FSV Mainz 05	37.3%	3.4%	0.8%
Draw	20.6%	17.8%	6.3%
Hamburger SV	2.2%	3.5%	8.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

50%

1.5

50%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

31%

27%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

39%

0.5

61%

76%

1.5

24%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

48%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Hamburger SV

1 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

1 Draws

1 Hamburger SV Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
06 Sep 2026	Hamburger SV	0 - 5	FSV Mainz 05
20 Feb 2026	FSV Mainz 05	1 - 1	Hamburger SV
05 Oct 2025	Hamburger SV	4 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

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FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Borussia Mönchengladbach	W	3 - 4
12 Sep	H Eintracht Frankfurt	L	1 - 3
06 Sep	A Hamburger SV	W	0 - 5
29 Aug	H SC Paderborn 07	D	0 - 0
23 Aug	A Krieschow	W	0 - 9

Hamburger SV — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H 1. FC Köln	W	2 - 1
13 Sep	A RB Leipzig	L	5 - 0
06 Sep	H FSV Mainz 05	L	0 - 5
29 Aug	A Borussia Dortmund	L	2 - 0
24 Aug	A Verl	W	0 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Borussia Dortmund	4	4	0	0	9	2	+7	12
2	Bayern München	4	3	1	0	14	2	+12	10
3	SC Freiburg	4	3	1	0	12	3	+9	10
4	FC Augsburg	4	2	1	1	11	6	+5	7
5	Bayer Leverkusen	4	2	1	1	10	5	+5	7
6	FSV Mainz 05	4	2	1	1	10	6	+4	7
7	SV Elversberg	4	2	1	1	8	7	+1	7
8	Werder Bremen	4	2	1	1	8	8	0	7
9	RB Leipzig	4	2	0	2	9	5	+4	6
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	4	1	2	1	9	10	-1	5
11	FC Schalke 04	4	1	2	1	3	4	-1	5
12	SC Paderborn 07	4	1	1	2	3	5	-2	4
13	1. FC Köln	4	1	1	2	6	9	-3	4
14	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	0	3	7	10	-3	3
15	VfB Stuttgart	4	1	0	3	6	9	-3	3
16	Hamburger SV	4	1	0	3	2	13	-11	3
17	Union Berlin	4	0	1	3	4	17	-13	1
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	4	0	0	4	6	16	-10	0

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.