Brentford vs Chelsea Napoved

Premier League · Regular Season - 5

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Chelsea

Away

Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Middlesex

UI napoved Preblizu za napoved

38%

26%

36%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Brentford proti Chelsea: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Brentford na 38%, za Chelsea na 36%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 26%. Zadnja posodobitev: 18 Sep 2026, 20:55.

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1st Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

Brentford claimed a commanding 3–0 Premier League victory over Chelsea at the Grantham Thomas, with a goalless first half giving way to a decisive second-period display from the hosts. Despite Chelsea edging the shot count 13–12 and enjoying only 41% possession, Brentford's clinical edge proved the difference.

Jaidon Anthony broke the deadlock on 61 minutes to set Brentford on their way, and although both sides made changes in the closing stages, it was the hosts who continued to threaten. Igor Thiago doubled the advantage on 83 minutes, picking up a yellow card moments later, before Fabio Carvalho wrapped up a convincing win deep into stoppage time. Brentford's 12 corner kicks underlined their territorial dominance in the second half.

The result was a notable upset — our pre-match AI model had rated a Brentford win as the most likely outcome at just 38%, a call that ultimately proved well-founded. Chelsea's six shots on target were not enough to trouble the scoreboard, leaving them with serious questions to answer after a heavy defeat.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

HT 0–0

Jaidon Anthony assist: Jannik Schuster

61' ⚽ 1–0

Michael Kayode ⇄ Aaron Hickey

69' ⇄

Yehor Yarmolyuk ⇄ Mamadou Sangare

69' ⇄

⇄ 71'

Danny Welbeck ⇄ Geovany Quenda

⇄ 71'

Wesley Fofana ⇄ Josh Acheampong

Jaidon Anthony ⇄ Dango Ouattara

81' ⇄

Keane Lewis-Potter ⇄ El Hadji Malick Diouf

81' ⇄

Igor Thiago

83' ⚽ 2–0

Igor Thiago Yellow Card

84' ▮

Mamadou Sangare Yellow Card

85' ▮

⇄ 87'

Valentín Barco ⇄ M. Nicoll-Jazuli

⇄ 87'

Pedro Neto ⇄ Estêvão

Mikkel Damsgaard ⇄ Fabio Carvalho

87' ⇄

Fabio Carvalho

90+4' ⚽ 3–0

FT 3–0

Brentford

Match Stats

Chelsea

41% Ball Possession 59%

13 Total Shots 12

6 Shots on Goal 2

3 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 7

9 Shots insidebox 8

4 Shots outsidebox 4

4 Corner Kicks 12

2 Offsides 2

10 Fouls 7

2 Yellow Cards 0

0 Red Cards 0

2 Goalkeeper Saves 3

343 Total passes 495

273 Passes accurate 428

7 Free Kicks 10

Brentford

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Jaidon Anthony M	8.1	81'	1	–	1	12 (9%)	–
44 Jannik Schuster D	7.8	90'	–	1	–	30 (25%)	1
9 Igor Thiago F	7.6	90'	1	–	3	21 (19%)	1
14 Fabio Carvalho M	7.6	3'	1	–	1	2 (2%)	–
1 Caoimhin Kelleher G	7.4	90'	–	–	–	34 (26%)	–
20 Kristoffer Ajer D	7.3	90'	–	–	–	46 (43%)	–
2 Aaron Hickey D	7.1	21'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
25 El Hadji Malick Diouf D	7.0	9'	–	–	–	4 (2%)	–
24 Mikkel Damsgaard M	6.9	87'	–	–	1	46 (33%)	3
27 Vitaly Janelt M	6.9	90'	–	–	1	44 (39%)	3
6 Yehor Yarmolyuk M	6.8	69'	–	–	1	36 (30%)	2
18 Mamadou Sangare M	6.7	21'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
23 Keane Lewis-Potter D	6.6	81'	–	–	2	28 (18%)	1
11 Dango Ouattara F	6.5	9'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
33 Michael Kayode D	6.4	69'	–	–	–	19 (12%)	1
7 Kevin Schade M	6.4	90'	–	–	3	17 (12%)	1

Chelsea

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
17 Morgan Rogers M	6.8	90'	–	–	4	42 (35%)	–
3 Wesley Fofana D	6.8	71'	–	–	–	21 (19%)	2
14 Jordan Henderson M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	73 (65%)	1
29 Josep Chavarría M	6.6	90'	–	–	1	56 (49%)	3
5 Maxence Lacroix D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	61 (54%)	1
6 Levi Colwill D	6.5	90'	–	–	–	65 (57%)	–
4 Valentín Barco M	6.4	87'	–	–	1	51 (47%)	3
18 Danny Welbeck F	6.4	71'	–	–	–	14 (12%)	1
41 Estêvão F	6.3	3'	–	–	–	4 (3%)	–
10 Cole Palmer M	6.2	90'	–	–	2	30 (25%)	3
7 Pedro Neto M	6.1	87'	–	–	2	19 (16%)	3
34 Josh Acheampong D	6.1	19'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	1
32 M. Nicoll-Jazuli M	6.0	3'	–	–	–	8 (7%)	1
23 Geovany Quenda M	5.9	19'	–	–	1	9 (8%)	–
1 Emiliano Martínez G	5.6	90'	–	–	–	31 (21%)	–

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Preblizu za napoved

Most likely score

1:1 · 11.6%

Both teams to score

66%

Over 2.5 goals

63%

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Brentford

WWDDD

Chelsea

LDWLW

Last 3 meetings Brentford · 0W 2D 1L

Match summary

Brentford faces Chelsea in an intriguing Premier League matchup. Brentford has shown solid performances at home, with a balanced attack contributing to their goal tally. Chelsea, however, boasts a stronger squad depth and attacking prowess, often dominating possession in matches. The key battle will likely be in midfield, where Chelsea's ability to control the game could dictate the tempo. Both teams will aim for a crucial three points, making this clash pivotal in their season trajectories.

Live insights

90' Goal 85% sure

Brentford now leads 3-0 with 100% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 9.5%.

84' Goal 85% sure

Brentford now leads 2-0 with 99.5% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 19.6%.

84' time check 80% sure

Min 84: Brentford leads 2-0. Win probability: 99.5%. Comeback chance: 0.5%.

76' time check 80% sure

Min 76: Brentford leads 1-0. Win probability: 82.7%. Equalizer or turnaround chance: 17.3%.

61' Goal 70% sure

Goal! Score now 1-0. Brentford win: 74.1%. BTTS: 40.9%.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

38%

10%

Draw

26%

45%

Away

36%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Chelsea goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	5	5	5	3	1
1	5	12	8	5	2	1
2	5	8	7	4	2
3	3	5	4	2	1
4	1	2	2	1
5		1	1

↑ Brentford goals · most likely 1–1 (11.5%)

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Players in form

Brentford

K. Schade 3 gls

Chelsea

João Pedro 3 gls

M. Rogers 3 gls

C. Palmer 2 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

36%

Draw

26%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS Yes 34% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

23%

90%

5.5

10%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

38%

Away Win

36%

Draw

26%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

51% Home (No Draw) 49% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

19% Home Win by 2+ 18% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Home Scores More 36% Away Scores More 26% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

95%

15%

1.5

85%

37%

2.5

63%

59%

3.5

41%

78%

4.5

23%

90%

5.5

10%

Both Teams To Score

66% BTTS Yes 34% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

22%

18%

12%

Goal Range

2-4 Goals

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1-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	5.1%	4.8%	5.0%	2.7%	1.1%
1	4.9%	11.6%	8.3%	4.5%	1.8%
2	5.2%	8.5%	6.9%	3.8%	1.5%
3	2.9%	4.7%	3.8%	2.1%	0.9%
4	1.2%	2.0%	1.6%	0.9%	0.4%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

57%

1.5

43%

83%

2.5

17%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

26%

31%

26%

12%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

43%

1.5

57%

71%

2.5

29%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

17%

25%

29%

17%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Brentford	Draw	Chelsea
Brentford	24.5%	5.7%	3.5%
Draw	12.0%	14.6%	14.4%
Chelsea	2.1%	3.9%	19.4%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

19%

0.5

81%

51%

1.5

49%

77%

2.5

23%

92%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

19%

32%

26%

15%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

41%

0.5

59%

78%

1.5

22%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

52%

1.5

48%

78%

2.5

22%

92%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Brentford vs Chelsea

0 Brentford Wins

2 Draws

1 Chelsea Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
17 Jan 2026	Chelsea	2 - 0	Brentford
13 Sep 2025	Brentford	2 - 2	Chelsea
06 Apr 2025	Brentford	0 - 0	Chelsea

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Brentford — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Chelsea	W	3 - 0
15 Sep	A Reading	W	1 - 2
12 Sep	A Bournemouth	D	2 - 2
05 Sep	H Sunderland	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	A Leeds	D	1 - 1

Chelsea — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	A Brentford	L	3 - 0
12 Sep	H Hull City	D	2 - 2
09 Sep	H Leeds	W	6 - 3
06 Sep	A Arsenal	L	2 - 1
30 Aug	H Brighton	W	4 - 3

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2