Ilves vs Lahti Napoved

Veikkausliiga · Regular Season - 17

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Lahti

Away

UI napoved Ilves ali neodločeno

39%

28%

33%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Ilves proti Lahti: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Ilves na 39%, za Lahti na 33%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 28%. Zadnja posodobitev: 26 Jul 2026, 13:57.

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1st Half Draw or Away 75%

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Timeline

J. Kanga

37' ⚽ 1–0

Y. Raap Yellow Card

45+1' ▮

HT 1–0

Y. Raap ⇄ J. Kilo

46' ⇄

⇄ 46'

M. Sarr ⇄ A. Belabid

⇄ 59'

R. Yapi ⇄ E. Andersson

⇄ 59'

⇄ D. Heikkinen

M. Rale

74' ⇄

T. Hytönen ⇄ T. Miettunen

74' ⇄

O. Multala

74' ⇄

⇄ 77'

Martim Ferreira

▮ 80'

Yellow Card

▮ 80'

A. Belabid Yellow Card

⇄ 83'

⇄ A. Lindholm

J. Kanga

85' ⇄

FT 1–0

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Confidence Low (39%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Ilves ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.9%

Both teams to score

49%

Over 2.5 goals

42%

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Ilves

WWWLL

Lahti

DLWWW

Last 1 meetings Ilves · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In this Veikkausliiga clash, Ilves will face Lahti, bringing together two teams with contrasting recent form. Ilves has shown a solid home performance, averaging 1.5 goals per game this season, while Lahti's away form has been shaky, conceding 1.8 goals per game. The key matchup will likely be Ilves's attacking prowess against Lahti's defensive struggles. If Ilves can capitalize on their scoring opportunities early, they could assert control and secure the victory. However, Lahti will need to tighten their defense to stand a chance.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

39%

10%

Draw

28%

45%

Away

33%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Lahti goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	9	6	2	1
1	10	15	8	3	1
2	7	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Ilves goals · most likely 1–1 (14.9%)

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Players in form

Ilves

T. Hytönen 7 gls

J. Kanga 4 gls

E. Tamminen 3 gls

M. Stjopin 2 gls

Lahti

Martim Ferreira 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

39%

Away Win

33%

Draw

28%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Draw or Away

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Winner

52% Home (No Draw) 48% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Home Win by 2+ 14% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

35% Home Scores More 33% Away Scores More 32% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

30%

1.5

70%

58%

2.5

42%

79%

3.5

21%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

51% BTTS No 49% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

19%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	9.3%	6.3%	2.4%	0.7%
1	9.8%	14.9%	7.6%	2.9%	0.8%
2	6.9%	7.9%	4.6%	1.8%	0.5%
3	2.8%	3.2%	1.8%	0.7%	0.2%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.6%	0.2%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

66%

1.5

34%

89%

2.5

11%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Ilves	Draw	Lahti
Ilves	20.3%	3.5%	1.1%
Draw	14.2%	20.4%	10.5%
Lahti	2.1%	5.4%	22.6%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

66%

1.5

34%

88%

2.5

12%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

30%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

32%

36%

21%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Ilves vs Lahti

1 Ilves Wins

0 Draws

0 Lahti Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
12 Sep 2026	Ilves	3 - 1	Lahti

Ilves — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Turku PS	W	0 - 3
12 Sep	H Lahti	W	3 - 1
08 Sep	H FF Jaro	W	2 - 0
31 Aug	H HJK Helsinki	L	1 - 2
22 Aug	H VPS	L	0 - 1

Lahti — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H FF Jaro	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Ilves	L	3 - 1
08 Sep	H Mariehamn	W	2 - 1
31 Aug	A VPS	W	0 - 1
21 Aug	A SJK	W	1 - 2

Veikkausliiga Standings

Champion Additional

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	KuPS	25	13	9	3	41	24	+17	48
2	Inter Turku	25	13	9	3	32	18	+14	48
3	HJK Helsinki	25	12	6	7	39	29	+10	42
4	Gnistan	25	11	8	6	40	32	+8	41
5	VPS	25	10	6	9	30	25	+5	36
6	AC Oulu	25	10	4	11	26	29	-3	34

Relegation Play-Off

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Lahti	25	10	6	9	30	24	+6	36
2	Ilves	25	10	4	11	42	38	+4	34
3	Turku PS	25	8	8	9	28	27	+1	32
4	SJK	25	5	9	11	28	35	-7	24
5	Mariehamn	25	4	5	16	20	47	-27	17
6	FF Jaro	25	3	8	14	20	48	-28	17

Ilves

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Joni Lehtonen

12 Krkalić

3 Rale

5 Väisänen

24 Kumpu

13 Wallius

14 Popovitch

6 Raap

22 Multala

17 Baranov

9 Hytönen

30 Kanga

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Faris Krkalić	G
13	Kalle Wallius	M
24	Ville Kumpu	D
5	Sauli Väisänen	D
3	Matias Rale	D
22	Oskari Multala	M
6	Yiandro Raap	D
14	Anton Popovitch	M
30	Jardell Kanga	M
9	Teemu Hytönen	F
17	Stanislav Baranov	M

Substitutes

28	Jesse Kilo	M
1	Otso Virtanen	G
25	Sebastian Suvanne	D
4	Oliver Pettersson	D
16	Tatu Miettunen	D
19	Bamba Abdoul Goudouss	D
15	Lauri Ala-Myllymäki	M
20	Otto Tiitinen	M
10	Roope Riski	F

Lahti

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Goncalo Pereira

31 Maukonen

3 Sans

5 Dantas

4 Müller

27 Yapi

10 Koskinen

18 Cassubie

8 Montiel

11 Ferreira

19 Barbosa

77 Sarr

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Osku Maukonen	G
27	Romaric Yapi	D
4	José Müller	D
5	Nicolas Gianini Dantas	D
3	Romain Sans	D
8	Tòfol Montiel	M
18	Yohan Cassubie	M
10	Otso Koskinen	M
77	Momodou Sarr	F
19	Neemias Barbosa	F
11	Martim Ferreira	F

Substitutes

17	Amir Belabid	F
7	Daniel Heikkinen	M
14	Erik Andersson	M
12	Aatu Hakala	G
25	Topias Inkinen	D
6	Väinö Vehkonen	D
20	Justus Ojanen	M
28	Armend Kabashi	M
9	Aaron Lindholm	F