Vardar Skopje vs Riga Napoved

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Riga

Away

UI napoved Riga ali neodločeno

31%

30%

38%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Vardar Skopje proti Riga: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Vardar Skopje na 31%, za Riga na 38%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 30%. Zadnja posodobitev: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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1st Half Draw or Away 76%
Gosti dosežejo gol 73%
2nd Half Over 0.5 73%

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Match Report

Vardar Skopje fell to a 3–2 defeat against Riga in their UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round encounter, with the visitors establishing a crucial advantage before half-time. The opening period was feisty, with yellow cards shown as early as the 15th minute, and B. Musah and O. Galo both booked in quick succession. Galo made his mark at the other end, however, netting in the 35th minute to give Vardar a foothold after Riga had moved into a two-goal lead through strikes in the 28th and 39th minutes, leaving the score 2–1 to the visitors at the break.

The second half saw Riga extend their advantage with a 66th-minute goal, and despite Reginaldo Ramires pulling one back for Vardar in the 81st minute to set up a nervy finish, the hosts could not find an equaliser. A flurry of substitutions from both sides failed to alter the outcome, and a late yellow card in stoppage time summed up a frustrating evening for Vardar.

The result was in line with pre-match expectations — our AI model had identified a Riga win as the most likely outcome at 38%, a call that proved correct.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Yellow Card

15' ▮

▮ 20'

B. Musah Yellow Card

▮ 21'

O. Galo Yellow Card

28' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 35'

O. Galo assist: R. Jurkovskis

⚽ 1–2 39'

assist: O. Galo

▮ 43'

R. Jurkovskis Yellow Card

HT 1–2

▮ 52'

Yellow Card

⇄ 57'

⇄ Caio

59' ⇄

66' ⚽ 2–2

⇄ 67'

⇄ Paulo

⇄ 67'

M. Badamosi ⇄ Reginaldo Ramires

⚽ 2–3 81'

Reginaldo Ramires assist: A. Salazar

⇄ 87'

O. Galo ⇄ K. Wassom

Yellow Card

90+1' ▮

FT 2–3

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Confidence Low (38%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Riga ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

52%

Over 2.5 goals

45%

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Vardar Skopje

WDWWD

Riga

WWDDW

Last 1 meetings Vardar Skopje · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Vardar Skopje faces Riga. Vardar has shown a solid home performance in previous domestic matches, but Riga comes with a strong away record in European competitions. Key players to watch include Vardar's leading scorer, who has netted crucial goals in recent fixtures, and Riga's robust defense, which has been effective in limiting opponent chances. The outcome may hinge on Vardar's ability to break through Riga's organized backline and maintain defensive discipline against quick counter-attacks.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Riga goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	9	7	3	1
1	8	15	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Vardar Skopje goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

38%

Home Win

31%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

55% Away (No Draw) 45% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

18% Away Win by 2+ 13% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

38% Away Scores More 31% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

55%

2.5

45%

76%

3.5

24%

90%

4.5

10%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

52% BTTS Yes 48% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.0%	9.3%	7.3%	3.2%	1.1%
1	8.1%	14.5%	8.5%	3.7%	1.2%
2	5.7%	7.5%	5.0%	2.2%	0.7%
3	2.2%	2.9%	1.9%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.7%	0.9%	0.6%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

34%

0.5

66%

68%

1.5

32%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

59%

1.5

41%

84%

2.5

16%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

27%

32%

25%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Vardar Skopje	Draw	Riga
Vardar Skopje	18.0%	4.3%	1.9%
Draw	12.5%	19.4%	14.4%
Riga	1.8%	4.5%	23.1%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

31%

36%

21%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

62%

1.5

38%

85%

2.5

15%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

27%

35%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

55%

0.5

45%

88%

1.5

12%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Vardar Skopje vs Riga

0 Vardar Skopje Wins

0 Draws

1 Riga Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
28 Jul 2026	Riga	5 - 2	Vardar Skopje

Vardar Skopje — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Shkëndija Haraçinë	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Bashkimi Kumanovo	D	3 - 3
07 Sep	H Aresimi	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	A Ovce Pole	W	0 - 5
31 Aug	A Tikveš	D	1 - 1

Riga — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A FS Jelgava	W	0 - 1
15 Sep	A Super Nova	W	0 - 1
11 Sep	H Auda	D	2 - 2
07 Sep	H BFC Daugavpils	D	1 - 1
03 Sep	A Rīgas FS	W	2 - 3

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Riga

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Adrian Gula

91 Orols

34 Černomordijs

21 Musah

13 Jurkovskis

17 Salazar

8 Augusto

40 Ankrah

18 M'Hand

4 Galo

7 Aouani

19 Badamosi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
91	Frenks Orols	G
13	Raivis Jurkovskis	D
21	Baba Musah	D
34	Antonijs Černomordijs	D
4	Orlando Galo	M
18	Salah Oulad M'Hand	M
40	Ahmed Ankrah	M
8	Iago Siqueira Augusto	M
17	Andrés Salazar	D
19	Muhammed Badamosi	F
7	Raki Aouani	M

Substitutes

99	Caio Ferreira	F
33	Paulo	D
10	Reginaldo Ramires	F
5	Karl Gameni Wassom	D
31	Athanasios Papadoudis	G
44	Marcis Kazainis	G
3	Abner	D
23	Maksims Tonisevs	D
11	Brian Peña	M
22	Meïssa Diop	M
25	Abdulrahman Taiwo	F

Vardar Skopje

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Cristian Fabbiani

95 Taleski

3 Manevski

4 Matić

5 Najdovski

21 Jankulov

32 Castañeda

6 Babunski

8 Nikolov

7 Rodrigues

9 Omeragikj

71 Pires

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
95	Davor Taleski	G
21	Georgije Jankulov	D
5	Filip Najdovski	D
4	Mislav Matić	D
3	Mihail Manevski	D
8	Boban Nikolov	M
6	David Babunski	M
32	Diego Castañeda	M
71	Miguel Pires	M
9	Azer Omeragikj	F
7	Gerson Rodrigues	F

Substitutes

88	Nemanja Bosančić	M
10	Goran Zakarić	F
1	Daniel Dikovski	G
18	Nenad Miskovski	D
27	Filip Cvetkovski	D
22	Dimitar Todorovski	M
23	Filip Duranski	M
34	Ian Puleio	M
17	Ediz Spahiu	F
49	Dimitar Danev	F
31	Ivo Markovski	F