Milsami Orhei vs Velež Napoved

UEFA Europa Conference League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Milsami Orhei

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0 : 1

HT 0 - 0

Prva tekma 1-1 · Skupaj 1-2

Velež

Away

UI napoved Milsami Orhei ali neodločeno

41%

36%

24%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Milsami Orhei proti Velež: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Milsami Orhei na 41%, za Velež na 24%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 36%. Zadnja posodobitev: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Pod 2,5 gola 73%
1st Half Draw or Away 72%

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Match Report

Milsami Orhei and Velež played out a tense, disciplined first half that ended goalless, with both sides struggling to create a decisive opening. The match was largely defined by its ill-tempered nature, as yellow cards were distributed freely throughout the contest.

The second half grew increasingly fractious, with further bookings piling up before a red card at the 80th minute reduced one side to ten men. Velež capitalised on the numerical advantage almost immediately, breaking the deadlock through a goal in the 83rd minute to settle the tie in the Bosnian side's favour. Late substitutions in the closing stages could not alter the outcome, and Milsami's challenge was effectively over.

The result means Velež advance in the UEFA Europa Conference League first qualifying round with a narrow but deserved 1–0 victory. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Milsami win as the most likely outcome at 41%, a call that proved wide of the mark as Velež held their nerve in a fiery encounter to claim the crucial away goal and the win.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 39'

Yellow Card

40' ▮

Yellow Card

43' ▮

HT 0–0

Yellow Card

56' ▮

63' ⇄

Yellow Card

66' ▮

75' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Yellow Card

80' ▮

Red Card

80' ▮

▮ 83'

Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 83'

▮ 85'

Yellow Card

86' ⇄

FT 0–1

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Confidence Low (41%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Milsami Orhei ali neodločeno

Most likely score

0:0 · 18.1%

Both teams to score

36%

Over 2.5 goals

27%

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Milsami Orhei

WLWDW

Velež

LWLDL

Last 1 meetings Milsami Orhei · 0W 1D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League clash, Milsami Orhei will face Velež on July 16, 2026. Milsami has demonstrated a strong defensive record, conceding only 1.2 goals per match in their last five league games. Conversely, Velež boasts an attacking prowess, averaging 2.1 goals per match in the same period. Both teams will need to capitalize on set pieces, as their respective conversion rates from corners have been above 30%. The match is expected to be competitive, with tactical discipline likely determining the outcome.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Velež goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	18	11	5	1
1	16	15	5	1
2	9	7	3	1
3	3	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Milsami Orhei goals · most likely 0–0 (18.1%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

36%

Away Win

24%

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

44%

1.5

56%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

41%

Draw

36%

Away Win

24%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

63% Home (No Draw) 37% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Home Win by 2+ 8% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

41% Home Scores More 36% Equal Goals 24% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

44%

1.5

56%

73%

2.5

27%

89%

3.5

11%

96%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

64% BTTS No 36% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

26%

29%

16%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

55% Even Total Goals 45% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	18.1%	10.6%	4.6%	1.2%	0.2%
1	15.7%	14.7%	4.9%	1.2%	0.2%
2	9.2%	6.9%	2.6%	0.7%	0.1%
3	3.3%	2.4%	0.9%	0.2%	0.0%
4	0.9%	0.7%	0.2%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

79%

1.5

21%

95%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

45%

34%

16%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

38%

0.5

62%

73%

1.5

27%

92%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

38%

34%

19%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Milsami Orhei	Draw	Velež
Milsami Orhei	23.7%	3.7%	0.9%
Draw	16.7%	26.1%	10.6%
Velež	1.3%	3.7%	13.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

98%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

35%

37%

19%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

62%

0.5

38%

92%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

83%

1.5

17%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

47%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

71%

0.5

29%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

94%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Milsami Orhei vs Velež

0 Milsami Orhei Wins

1 Draws

0 Velež Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Jul 2026	Velež	1 - 1	Milsami Orhei

Milsami Orhei — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Sireți	W	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Sheriff Tiraspol	L	0 - 1
06 Sep	A CSF Bălți	W	1 - 3
30 Aug	A Dacia-Buiucani	D	0 - 0
22 Aug	H Petrocub	W	1 - 0

Velež — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Zrinjski	L	2 - 0
13 Sep	H FK Sarajevo	W	1 - 0
06 Sep	A Zeljeznicar Sarajevo	L	3 - 1
02 Sep	H Radnik Bijeljina	D	1 - 1
28 Aug	A Čelik	L	3 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

Milsami Orhei

Formation: 5-3-2 Coach: Alexei Savinov

31 Dujmović

30 Takyi

24 Muringen

34 Neto

4 Angelov

29 Asmelash

11 Chele

5 Nwaeze

33 Fonkeu

14 Odubia

28 Kalabatama

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
31	Filip Dujmović	G
29	Hennos Asmelash	D
4	Aleksandar Angelov	D
34	Decio Neto	D
24	Dehninio Muringen	D
30	Frederick Takyi	D
33	William Fonkeu	M
5	Christopher Nwaeze	D
11	Sorin Chele	M
28	Kabamba Kalabatama	F
14	Philip Odubia	M

Substitutes

13	Vasile Luchita	M
35	Denis Vornic	G
10	Radu Gînsari	M
17	Leonard Bulmaga	M
21	Samouil Izountouemoi	M
15	David Sîrbu	M
7	Chiril Silcenco	F

Velež

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Ibro Rahimic

1 Ribić

18 Duranović

13 Omerović

8 Hrkać

7 Nukić

11 Mešić

29 Babić

6 Abdullah

80 Stojanović

10 Salčin

9 Spahic

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Faris Ribić	G
7	Ajdin Nukić	D
8	Ante Hrkać	D
13	Anes Omerović	D
18	Said Duranović	D
80	Nino Stojanović	F
6	Rafidine Abdullah	M
29	Andro Babić	M
11	Aldin Mešić	M
9	Armin Spahic	F
10	Đani Salčin	M

Substitutes

22	Elmin Mataradžić	G
66	Faruk Setic	D
55	Adin Bajrić	D
17	Ayham Shhade	M
20	Damir Halilović	M
38	Dženan Puce	M
21	Alan Pajević	F
83	Mahir Bešić	F
88	Leonid Ignatov	F