Tre Fiori vs Larne Napoved

UEFA Champions League · 1st Qualifying Round

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Larne

Away

UI napoved Larne ali neodločeno

34%

30%

37%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Tre Fiori proti Larne: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Tre Fiori na 34%, za Larne na 37%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 30%. Zadnja posodobitev: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Več kot 1,5 gola 75%
Gosti dosežejo gol 74%
2nd Half Over 0.5 75%
Domači dosežejo gol 72%
1st Half Draw or Away 73%

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Match Report

Larne edged past San Marinese side Tre Fiori 1–0 in the first leg of their UEFA Champions League first qualifying round tie, with the decisive moment arriving right on the stroke of half-time. The goal, scored in the 45th minute, gave the Northern Irish visitors a slender but valuable advantage heading into the break.

Tre Fiori had shown some early fight, with a yellow card issued in the 10th minute suggesting a physical edge to the contest, and a second booking followed shortly after in the 19th minute. Larne, however, managed the game effectively and ensured their lead remained intact despite a busy second half that saw both sides make multiple substitutions and further bookings handed out in the 58th and 66th minutes.

Tre Fiori were unable to find an equaliser despite their efforts in the closing stages, leaving Larne in a strong position ahead of the second leg. The result aligned with our pre-match AI model, which had identified a Larne win as the most likely outcome at 37%.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 10'

Yellow Card

▮ 19'

Yellow Card

⚽ 0–1 45'

⇄ 45'

HT 0–1

56' ⇄

57' ⇄

Yellow Card

58' ▮

63' ⇄

⇄ 63'

Yellow Card

66' ▮

78' ⇄

⇄ 78'

⇄ 88'

FT 0–1

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Confidence Low (37%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Larne ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.1%

Both teams to score

55%

Over 2.5 goals

49%

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Tre Fiori

LWWWW

Larne

WWWWW

Last 1 meetings Tre Fiori · 0W 0D 1L

Match summary

In the UEFA Champions League clash between Tre Fiori and Larne, both teams will be looking to establish an early foothold in the competition. Tre Fiori will need to capitalize on their defensive organization, as they have shown resilience in previous fixtures, conceding an average of just one goal per match in recent outings. Meanwhile, Larne’s attacking prowess has been highlighted by their ability to score multiple goals in key league matches, averaging two goals per game. The outcome will likely hinge on Tre Fiori's ability to contain Larne's forwards while exploiting any defensive lapses. Overall, this matchup promises to be competitive, with both teams eager to make a statement in the Champions League.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Larne goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	9	8	7	3	1
1	8	14	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Tre Fiori goals · most likely 1–1 (14.1%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

37%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

52% Away (No Draw) 48% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

17% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

37% Away Scores More 34% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

25%

1.5

75%

51%

2.5

49%

73%

3.5

27%

88%

4.5

12%

95%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

55% BTTS Yes 45% BTTS No

Exact Goals

16%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.9%	8.2%	6.6%	3.0%	1.0%
1	7.6%	14.1%	8.5%	3.8%	1.3%
2	5.9%	8.0%	5.4%	2.4%	0.8%
3	2.5%	3.4%	2.3%	1.0%	0.4%
4	0.8%	1.1%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

25%

0.5

75%

56%

1.5

44%

82%

2.5

18%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

25%

31%

26%

12%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Tre Fiori	Draw	Larne
Tre Fiori	20.0%	4.6%	2.1%
Draw	12.8%	18.4%	13.8%
Larne	1.9%	4.5%	22.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

56%

0.5

44%

88%

1.5

12%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

84%

1.5

16%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

95%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

26%

35%

24%

11%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

48%

0.5

52%

83%

1.5

17%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Tre Fiori vs Larne

0 Tre Fiori Wins

0 Draws

1 Larne Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Jul 2026	Larne	2 - 1	Tre Fiori

Tre Fiori — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
18 Sep	H Virtus	L	2 - 3
11 Sep	H Domagnano	W	3 - 0
08 Sep	A Fiorentino	W	0 - 1
04 Sep	A Faetano	W	0 - 4
30 Aug	H Pennarossa	W	5 - 2

Larne — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Carrick Rangers	W	2 - 5
15 Sep	H Cliftonville FC	W	2 - 0
12 Sep	A Portadown	W	0 - 2
08 Sep	H Bangor	W	1 - 0
04 Sep	H Glentoran	W	2 - 1

UEFA Champions League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Paris Saint Germain	1	1	0	0	6	1	+5	3
2	Bayern München	1	1	0	0	5	0	+5	3
3	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	5	1	+4	3
4	Manchester United	1	1	0	0	4	0	+4	3
5	Como	1	1	0	0	4	1	+3	3
6	VfB Stuttgart	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
7	Sporting CP	1	1	0	0	3	1	+2	3
8	Manchester City	1	1	0	0	2	0	+2	3
9	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
10	Lens	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
11	Real Betis	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
12	Borussia Dortmund	1	1	0	0	3	2	+1	3
13	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
14	Real Madrid	1	1	0	0	2	1	+1	3
15	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
16	AEK Athens FC	1	1	0	0	1	0	+1	3
17	AS Roma	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
18	Shakhtar Donetsk	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
19	PSV Eindhoven	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
20	Fenerbahçe	1	0	1	0	1	1	0	1
21	Villarreal	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
22	Lille	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
23	Slavia Praha	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
24	Club Brugge KV	1	0	0	1	2	3	-1	0
25	Inter	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
26	Atletico Madrid	1	0	0	1	1	2	-1	0
27	Napoli	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
28	Lask Linz	1	0	0	1	0	1	-1	0
29	Viking	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
30	Galatasaray	1	0	0	1	1	3	-2	0
31	FC Porto	1	0	0	1	0	2	-2	0
32	RB Leipzig	1	0	0	1	1	4	-3	0
33	Feyenoord	1	0	0	1	1	5	-4	0
34	Sabah FA	1	0	0	1	0	4	-4	0
35	Slovan Bratislava	1	0	0	1	1	6	-5	0
36	Bodo/Glimt	1	0	0	1	0	5	-5	0

Tre Fiori

Formation: 3-4-1-2 Coach: Matteo Cecchetti

17 Nardi

23 Sirri

5 Rea

6 Syku

24 Mengucci

4 Sami

29 Bertani

2 D'Addario

20 Benedettini

9 Prandelli

10 Bernardi

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
17	Michele Nardi	G
6	Tom Syku	D
5	Simone Rea	D
23	Alex Sirri	D
2	Alessandro D'Addario	D
29	Romeo Bertani	M
4	Brando Sami	M
24	Pietro Mengucci	D
20	Federico Benedettini	M
10	Tommaso Bernardi	F
9	Matteo Prandelli	F

Substitutes

25	Alex Castagnoli	G
33	Michele Berardi	G
3	Mattia Sancisi	D
12	Federico Pesaresi	D
99	Giulio Ponticelli	D
8	Luca Censoni	M
16	Federico Dolcini	M
28	Luca Terenzi	M
27	Mohamed Ben Kacem	F
76	Nico Manara	F

Larne

Formation: 3-5-2 Coach: Nathan Rooney

1 Ferguson

4 Donnelly

3 Ridley

5 McClelland

11 Graham

15 Doherty

6 Gallagher

26 Bent

23 Cosgrove

30 Lusty

45 Gibson

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Rohan Ferguson	G
5	Sam McClelland	D
3	Matt Ridley	D
4	Aaron Donnelly	D
23	Tomas Cosgrove	D
26	Dan Bent	M
6	Chris Gallagher	M
15	Ronan Doherty	M
11	Sean Graham	D
45	Montel Gibson	F
30	Matthew Lusty	F

Substitutes

14	Benji Magee	M
36	Dylan Graham	G
2	Logan Wallace	D
7	Conor McKendry	M
8	Mark Randall	M
17	Joshua Ukek	M
21	Leroy Millar	M
22	Jordan McEneff	M
25	Dylan Sloan	M
47	James Simpson	M
19	Kevin O'Hara	F