Türkiye vs Paraguay Napoved

World Cup · Group Stage - 2

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Paraguay

Away

UI napoved Türkiye ali neodločeno

45%

30%

25%

Zmaga domačih Neodločeno Zmaga gostov

Napoved Türkiye proti Paraguay: Sportiko ocenjuje verjetnost zmage za Türkiye na 45%, za Paraguay na 25%, verjetnost neodločenega izida pa na 30%. Zadnja posodobitev: 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Pod 3,5 gola 78%
Domači dosežejo gol 76%
2nd Half Over 0.5 72%
Več kot 1,5 gola 71%

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Match Report

Paraguay stunned Türkiye inside two minutes when Matías Galarza swept home to give the South Americans an early lead. Galarza was then booked moments later, and Paraguay's night grew more complicated just before half-time when Miguel Almirón was shown a red card in stoppage time, forcing them to defend the second half with ten men.

Türkiye dominated possession — finishing with 79% of the ball, 28 total shots, and 11 corners — but could not find a way through a resolute Paraguayan defensive effort. Despite an expected goals figure of 1.70 against Paraguay's 0.29, Türkiye's pressure never translated into an equaliser, with only five efforts on target across the entire match.

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Türkiye win as the most likely outcome at 45%, a call that did not materialise. Paraguay held firm through a gruelling second half to claim all three points, with Galarza completing his full shift before being withdrawn deep into injury time to a hero's reception.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 2'

Matías Galarza assist: Julio Enciso

▮ 4'

Matías Galarza Yellow Card

▮ 45+3'

Miguel Almirón Red Card

HT 0–1

⇄ 46'

Isidro Pitta ⇄ Damián Bobadilla

Kerem Aktürkoğlu ⇄ Barış Alper Yılmaz

46' ⇄

İsmail Yüksek ⇄ Can Uzun

60' ⇄

Yunus Akgün ⇄ Deniz Gül

60' ⇄

Yellow Card

63' ▮

⇄ 67'

Diego Gómez ⇄ Gustavo Velázquez

Ferdi Kadıoğlu ⇄ Eren Elmalı

70' ⇄

Eren Elmalı Yellow Card

71' ▮

⇄ 81'

Juan Cáceres ⇄ Alexandro Maidana

Abdülkerim Bardakcı ⇄ Orkun Kökçü

86' ⇄

⇄ 90+2'

Julio Enciso ⇄ Gabriel Ávalos

⇄ 90+2'

Matías Galarza ⇄ José Canale

FT 0–1

Türkiye

Match Stats

Paraguay

79% Ball Possession 21%

1.70 Expected Goals (xG) 0.29

28 Total Shots 7

5 Shots on Goal 2

13 Shots off Goal 3

10 Blocked Shots 2

14 Shots insidebox 3

14 Shots outsidebox 4

11 Corner Kicks 0

2 Offsides 3

14 Fouls 14

1 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 1

1 Goalkeeper Saves 5

612 Total passes 171

547 Passes accurate 90

89% Passes % 53%

0.56 goals_prevented 0.56

Türkiye

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
14 Abdülkerim Bardakcı D	8.0	86'	–	–	–	98 (98%)	2
10 Hakan Çalhanoğlu M	7.5	95'	–	–	1	83 (74%)	4
8 Arda Güler M	7.2	95'	–	–	1	66 (56%)	1
11 Kenan Yıldız M	7.2	95'	–	–	4	50 (46%)	1
20 Ferdi Kadıoğlu D	6.9	70'	–	–	–	54 (46%)	2
16 İsmail Yüksek M	6.9	60'	–	–	2	52 (47%)	4
7 Kerem Aktürkoğlu F	6.7	45'	–	–	–	5 (3%)	–
3 Merih Demiral D	6.6	95'	–	–	4	63 (61%)	–
6 Orkun Kökçü M	6.6	9'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
21 Barış Alper Yılmaz F	6.6	50'	–	–	1	7 (6%)	–
23 Uğurcan Çakır G	6.3	95'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	–
13 Eren Elmalı D	6.3	25'	–	–	–	11 (10%)	–
18 Mert Müldür D	6.3	95'	–	–	1	47 (37%)	2
26 Can Uzun M	6.3	35'	–	–	2	15 (13%)	–
19 Yunus Akgün M	6.2	60'	–	–	–	27 (20%)	–
9 Deniz Gül F	6.2	35'	–	–	2	–	–

Paraguay

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
4 Juan Cáceres D	8.0	81'	–	–	1	11 (6%)	9
19 Julio Enciso F	7.7	92'	–	1	1	20 (14%)	1
23 Matías Galarza M	7.7	92'	1	–	1	18 (10%)	3
12 Orlando Gill G	7.5	95'	–	–	–	34 (11%)	–
15 Gustavo Gómez D	7.3	95'	–	–	–	6 (4%)	–
6 Junior Alonso D	7.3	95'	–	–	–	12 (6%)	2
3 Omar Alderete D	6.9	95'	–	–	1	7 (1%)	–
14 Andrés Cubas M	6.9	95'	–	–	–	17 (13%)	1
16 Damián Bobadilla M	6.9	50'	–	–	–	3 (1%)	2
8 Diego Gómez M	6.6	67'	–	–	1	20 (11%)	2
2 Gustavo Velázquez D	6.6	28'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
26 Alexandro Maidana D	6.3	14'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–
10 Miguel Almirón M	5.9	48'	–	–	–	10 (5%)	3
25 Isidro Pitta F	5.9	45'	–	–	–	8 (3%)	–
13 José Canale D	—	3'	–	–	–	–	–
21 Gabriel Ávalos F	—	3'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–

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Confidence Low (45%)

At a glance

Naša analiza

Türkiye ali neodločeno

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

50%

Over 2.5 goals

43%

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Türkiye

WLLLW

Paraguay

LDDWL

Match summary

In the upcoming World Cup match on June 20, 2026, Türkiye will face Paraguay in a critical group stage encounter. Türkiye, known for their solid defensive organization and effective counter-attacking play, will look to leverage their home advantage, especially given their recent form, which has seen them unbeaten in their last five matches, scoring an average of 2 goals per game.

On the other hand, Paraguay has shown resilience with a balanced squad, focusing on a disciplined midfield and quick transitions. Their recent performances indicate a tendency to struggle against high-pressing teams, which Türkiye could exploit. The match will likely hinge on Türkiye's ability to break down Paraguay's defense while managing the threats posed by their quick forwards. Expect a tightly contested battle with both sides eager to secure crucial points in the tournament.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Paraguay goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	11	7	4	1
1	11	14	6	2	1
2	9	9	5	2
3	4	4	2	1
4	2	2	1
5

↑ Türkiye goals · most likely 1–1 (14.3%)

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AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

45%

Draw

30%

Away Win

25%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

64% Home (No Draw) 36% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

22% Home Win by 2+ 10% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

45% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals 25% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

29%

1.5

71%

57%

2.5

43%

78%

3.5

22%

91%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

50% BTTS No 50% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

18%

28%

21%

13%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	10.6%	7.3%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
1	11.0%	14.3%	6.3%	2.1%	0.5%
2	9.0%	9.0%	4.5%	1.5%	0.4%
3	4.3%	4.3%	2.1%	0.7%	0.2%
4	1.5%	1.5%	0.8%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

69%

1.5

31%

90%

2.5

10%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

34%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

10%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Türkiye	Draw	Paraguay
Türkiye	27.3%	4.2%	1.4%
Draw	16.8%	19.6%	10.2%
Paraguay	2.1%	4.2%	14.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

24%

0.5

76%

59%

1.5

41%

83%

2.5

17%

95%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

24%

34%

24%

12%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

86%

1.5

14%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

92%

2.5

98%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

37%

18%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

92%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

58%

0.5

42%

89%

1.5

11%

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Türkiye vs Paraguay

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

Türkiye — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
26 Jun	H USA	W	3 - 2
20 Jun	H Paraguay	L	0 - 1
14 Jun	A Australia	L	2 - 0
06 Jul	A Netherlands	L	2 - 1
02 Jul	A Austria	W	1 - 2

Paraguay — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Jul	H France	L	0 - 1
29 Jun	A Germany	D	1 - 1
26 Jun	H Australia	D	0 - 0
20 Jun	A Türkiye	W	0 - 1
13 Jun	A USA	L	4 - 1

World Cup Standings

Group A

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mexico	3	3	0	0	6	0	+6	9
2	South Africa	3	1	1	1	2	3	-1	4
4	Czechia	3	0	1	2	2	6	-4	1

Group B

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Switzerland	3	2	1	0	7	3	+4	7
2	Canada	3	1	1	1	8	3	+5	4
4	Qatar	3	0	1	2	2	10	-8	1

Group C

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Brazil	3	2	1	0	7	1	+6	7
2	Morocco	3	2	1	0	6	3	+3	7
4	Haiti	3	0	0	3	2	8	-6	0

Group D

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	USA	3	2	0	1	8	4	+4	6
2	Australia	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Türkiye	3	1	0	2	3	5	-2	3

Group E

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Germany	3	2	0	1	10	4	+6	6
2	Ivory Coast	3	2	0	1	4	2	+2	6
4	Curaçao	3	0	1	2	1	9	-8	1

Group F

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Netherlands	3	2	1	0	10	4	+6	7
2	Japan	3	1	2	0	7	3	+4	5
4	Tunisia	3	0	0	3	2	12	-10	0

Group G

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Belgium	3	1	2	0	6	2	+4	5
2	Egypt	3	1	2	0	5	3	+2	5
4	New Zealand	3	0	1	2	4	10	-6	1

Group H

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Spain	3	2	1	0	5	0	+5	7
2	Cape Verde Islands	3	0	3	0	2	2	0	3
4	Saudi Arabia	3	0	2	1	1	5	-4	2

Group I

#	Team	P	W	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	France	3	3	0	10	2	+8	9
2	Norway	3	2	1	8	7	+1	6
4	Iraq	3	0	3	1	12	-11	0

Group J

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Argentina	3	3	0	0	8	1	+7	9
2	Austria	3	1	1	1	6	6	0	4
4	Jordan	3	0	0	3	3	8	-5	0

Group K

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Colombia	3	2	1	0	4	1	+3	7
2	Portugal	3	1	2	0	6	1	+5	5
4	Uzbekistan	3	0	0	3	2	11	-9	0

Group L

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	England	3	2	1	0	6	2	+4	7
2	Croatia	3	2	0	1	5	5	0	6
4	Panama	3	0	0	3	0	4	-4	0

Group Stage

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Congo DR	3	1	1	1	4	3	+1	4
2	Sweden	3	1	1	1	7	7	0	4
3	Ghana	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
4	Ecuador	3	1	1	1	2	2	0	4
5	Bosnia & Herzegovina	3	1	1	1	5	6	-1	4
6	Algeria	3	1	1	1	5	7	-2	4
7	Paraguay	3	1	1	1	2	4	-2	4
8	Senegal	3	1	0	2	8	6	+2	3
9	Iran	3	0	3	0	3	3	0	3
10	South Korea	3	1	0	2	2	3	-1	3
11	Scotland	3	1	0	2	1	4	-3	3
12	Uruguay	3	0	2	1	3	4	-1	2

Türkiye

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: V. Montella

23 Çakır

20 Kadıoğlu

14 Bardakcı

3 Demiral

18 Müldür

10 Çalhanoğlu

16 Yüksek

11 Yıldız

8 Güler

19 Akgün

7 Aktürkoğlu

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Uğurcan Çakır	G
18	Mert Müldür	D
3	Merih Demiral	D
14	Abdülkerim Bardakcı	D
20	Ferdi Kadıoğlu	D
16	İsmail Yüksek	M
10	Hakan Çalhanoğlu	M
19	Yunus Akgün	M
8	Arda Güler	M
11	Kenan Yıldız	M
7	Kerem Aktürkoğlu	F

Substitutes

21	Barış Alper Yılmaz	F
26	Can Uzun	M
9	Deniz Gül	F
12	Altay Bayındır	G
1	Mert Günok	G
13	Eren Elmalı	D
22	Kaan Ayhan	D
15	Ozan Kabak	D
25	Samet Akaydın	D
2	Zeki Çelik	D
4	Çağlar Söyüncü	D
6	Orkun Kökçü	M
24	Oğuz Aydın	F
5	Salih Özcan	M
17	İrfan Can Kahveci	M

Paraguay

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: Gustavo Alfaro

12 Gill

6 Alonso

3 Alderete

15 Gómez

4 Cáceres

23 Galarza

8 Gómez

14 Cubas

10 Almirón

19 Enciso

25 Pitta

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
12	Orlando Gill	G
4	Juan Cáceres	D
15	Gustavo Gómez	D
3	Omar Alderete	D
6	Junior Alonso	D
10	Miguel Almirón	M
14	Andrés Cubas	M
8	Diego Gómez	M
23	Matías Galarza	M
25	Isidro Pitta	F
19	Julio Enciso	F

Substitutes

16	Damián Bobadilla	M
22	Gastón Olveira	G
1	Roberto Fernández	G
2	Gustavo Velázquez	D
5	Fabián Balbuena	D
13	José Canale	D
26	Alexandro Maidana	D
11	Mauricio	M
20	Braian Ojeda	M
24	Gustavo Caballero	F
17	Alejandro Romero	M
7	Ramón Sosa	F
9	Antonio Sanabria	F
18	Alex Arce	F
21	Gabriel Ávalos	F