Manchester United vs Leeds Predicție

Premier League · Regular Season - 32

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Leeds

Away

Old Trafford, Manchester

Predicție AI Manchester United să câștige sau să egaleze

78%

18%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție Manchester United vs Leeds: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 78% pentru victoria lui Manchester United, 5% pentru Leeds și 18% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 26 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Manchester United suffered a damaging home defeat to Leeds, going two goals down before the interval thanks to a brace from Noah Okafor. The Austrian striker struck early in the fifth minute and added a second on 29 minutes to give Leeds a commanding 2-0 lead at the break, despite United enjoying the majority of possession and generating the greater volume of chances.

The second half turned further against the hosts when a VAR review led to Lisandro Martínez being upgraded to a red card on 56 minutes, leaving United to chase the game with ten men. Casemiro pulled one back on 69 minutes to set up a tense closing period, but Leeds held firm to secure all three points. United's expected goals figure of 1.27 compared unfavourably to Leeds' 2.57, underlining the visitors' clinical efficiency on the night.

The result will sting all the more given that our pre-match AI model had rated a Manchester United win as the most likely outcome at 78%. United's defeat leaves questions over their defensive resilience and discipline, with the red card proving a decisive turning point.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 5'

Noah Okafor

Matheus Cunha Yellow Card

18' ▮

⚽ 0–2 29'

Noah Okafor assist: Brenden Aaronson

▮ 39'

Yellow Card

HT 0–2

Yellow Card

49' ▮

Lisandro Martínez Card upgrade

55' 🖵

Lisandro Martínez Red Card

56' ▮

Bruno Fernandes Yellow Card

64' ▮

Casemiro assist: Bruno Fernandes

69' ⚽ 1–2

Noussair Mazraoui ⇄ Diogo Dalot

70' ⇄

Amad Diallo

70' ⇄

⇄ 74'

Ao Tanaka

⇄ 74'

Noah Okafor

▮ 86'

Yellow Card

⇄ 86'

Brenden Aaronson

FT 1–2

Manchester United

Match Stats

Leeds

53% Ball Possession 47%

1.27 Expected Goals (xG) 2.57

20 Total Shots 15

9 Shots on Goal 6

5 Shots off Goal 4

6 Blocked Shots 5

15 Shots insidebox 11

5 Shots outsidebox 4

11 Corner Kicks 4

1 Offsides 0

12 Fouls 15

3 Yellow Cards 2

1 Red Cards 0

3 Goalkeeper Saves 6

497 Total passes 453

420 Passes accurate 376

85% Passes % 83%

0.80 goals_prevented 0.80

Manchester United

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
18 Casemiro M	7.9	90'	1	–	2	56 (44%)	–
8 Bruno Fernandes M	7.9	90'	–	1	–	72 (56%)	2
15 Leny Yoro D	7.9	90'	–	–	2	66 (58%)	–
31 Senne Lammens G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	–
25 Manuel Ugarte M	7.2	90'	–	–	–	56 (49%)	3
6 Lisandro Martínez D	7.0	56'	–	–	–	54 (49%)	1
23 Luke Shaw D	7.0	90'	–	–	–	55 (49%)	2
2 Diogo Dalot D	6.9	20'	–	–	1	11 (11%)	2
19 Bryan Mbeumo F	6.7	20'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
30 Benjamin Šeško F	6.6	90'	–	–	3	15 (10%)	–
10 Matheus Cunha M	6.3	90'	–	–	3	29 (25%)	2
16 Amad Diallo M	6.3	70'	–	–	2	18 (16%)	2
3 Noussair Mazraoui D	6.2	70'	–	–	1	31 (25%)	4

Leeds

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
19 Noah Okafor F	8.9	74'	2	–	2	20 (16%)	–
26 Karl Darlow G	8.3	90'	–	–	–	37 (20%)	–
3 Gabriel Gudmundsson M	7.7	90'	–	–	–	41 (32%)	1
2 Jayden Bogle M	7.7	90'	–	–	–	35 (29%)	2
22 Ao Tanaka M	7.6	74'	–	–	1	50 (42%)	2
5 Pascal Struijk D	7.3	90'	–	–	1	49 (48%)	1
24 James Justin D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	39 (34%)	–
15 Jaka Bijol D	7.2	90'	–	–	1	37 (31%)	3
4 Ethan Ampadu M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	50 (46%)	2
44 Ilia Gruev M	7.0	16'	–	–	1	15 (15%)	–
29 Wilfried Gnonto F	6.7	16'	–	–	–	18 (15%)	–
8 Sean Longstaff M	6.7	12'	–	–	–	5 (5%)	–
9 Dominic Calvert-Lewin F	6.3	90'	–	–	4	25 (15%)	–
11 Brenden Aaronson F	6.2	86'	–	1	–	32 (28%)	1

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Avantaj de Valoare — model vs. piață
Tipuri de selecții alese de tine

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Confidence Medium (55%)

At a glance

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Manchester United să câștige sau să egaleze

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Manchester United

DLLWD

Leeds

DWLDD

Last 3 meetings Manchester United · 1W 2D 0L

Match summary

In the upcoming Premier League match on April 11, 2026, Manchester United will host Leeds United at Old Trafford. Historically, Manchester United has a strong home advantage, with over 70% of their points earned at home this season. Leeds, while competitive, has struggled defensively, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match in away games. Key players to watch include United's attacking talisman, who has consistently contributed to their goal tally, and Leeds' midfield general, who orchestrates their counter-attacks. This match is crucial for both teams; United aims to solidify their top-four position, while Leeds fights to avoid relegation.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Leeds goals →

	0	1	2
0	10	3
1	21	6	1
2	20	6	1
3	13	4	1
4	7	2
5	3	1

↑ Manchester United goals · most likely 1–0 (20.6%)

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Players in form

Manchester United

Bruno Fernandes 3 gls

Leeds

D. Calvert-Lewin 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Head to Head: Manchester United vs Leeds

1 Manchester United Wins

2 Draws

0 Leeds Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
04 Jan 2026	Leeds	1 - 1	Manchester United
12 Feb 2023	Leeds	0 - 2	Manchester United
08 Feb 2023	Manchester United	2 - 2	Leeds

Vezi toate cele 7 întâlniri — Premium

Manchester United — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Fulham	D	1 - 1
16 Sep	H Brighton	L	2 - 3
13 Sep	H Manchester City	L	0 - 1
10 Sep	H Sabah FA	W	4 - 0
06 Sep	A Everton	D	2 - 2

Leeds — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Crystal Palace	D	0 - 0
14 Sep	H Newcastle	W	4 - 1
09 Sep	A Chelsea	L	6 - 3
05 Sep	A Brighton	D	1 - 1
30 Aug	H Brentford	D	1 - 1

Premier League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Manchester City	5	5	0	0	13	5	+8	15
2	Arsenal	5	4	0	1	8	4	+4	12
3	Brighton	5	3	1	1	16	5	+11	10
4	Brentford	5	2	3	0	10	4	+6	9
5	Leeds	5	2	3	0	7	3	+4	9
6	Liverpool	5	2	3	0	7	4	+3	9
7	Everton	5	2	3	0	6	3	+3	9
8	Hull City	5	2	2	1	6	4	+2	8
9	Newcastle	5	2	2	1	9	9	0	8
10	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	10	12	-2	7
11	Ipswich	5	2	0	3	7	11	-4	6
12	Manchester United	5	1	2	2	8	8	0	5
13	Nottingham Forest	5	1	2	2	4	5	-1	5
14	Sunderland	5	1	1	3	6	10	-4	4
15	Crystal Palace	5	1	1	3	6	11	-5	4
16	Aston Villa	5	1	1	3	4	9	-5	4
17	Bournemouth	5	0	3	2	6	8	-2	3
18	Coventry	5	1	0	4	1	10	-9	3
19	Fulham	5	0	2	3	5	8	-3	2
20	Tottenham	5	0	2	3	2	8	-6	2