Atletico-MG vs Gremio Predicție

Serie A · Regular Season - 23

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Atletico-MG

Home

3 : 0

HT 1 - 0

Gremio

Away

Predicție AI Victorie sau egal dificil pentru Atletico-MG

54%

27%

19%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție Atletico-MG vs Gremio: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 54% pentru victoria lui Atletico-MG, 19% pentru Gremio și 27% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 16 Aug 2026, 20:56.

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Timeline

Vitor Hugo assist: Igor Gomes

19' ⚽ 1–0

Igor Gomes ⇄ Bernard

31' ⇄

▮ 39'

Cristian Pavón Yellow Card

Ángelo Preciado Yellow Card

42' ▮

Mamady Cissé Yellow Card

45+2' ▮

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Gustavo Martins ⇄ Walter Kannemann

⇄ 46'

Cristian Pavón ⇄ Tetê

⇄ 46'

Juan Nardoni ⇄ Filip Krovinović

Renan Lodi Yellow Card

57' ▮

▮ 61'

Walter Kannemann Yellow Card

Alan Franco ⇄ Maycon

61' ⇄

Mamady Cissé ⇄ Kevin Castaño

61' ⇄

Tomás Cuello assist: Renan Lodi

62' ⚽ 2–0

⇄ 63'

Dodi ⇄ Gabriel Mec

Tomás Cuello

66' ⚽ 3–0

▮ 69'

Pedro Gabriel Yellow Card

⇄ 76'

Pedro Gabriel ⇄ Caio Paulista

Tomás Cuello ⇄ Dudu

81' ⇄

Victor Hugo ⇄ Alan Minda

81' ⇄

FT 3–0

Atletico-MG

Match Stats

Gremio

49% Ball Possession 51%

2.47 Expected Goals (xG) 0.41

14 Total Shots 9

5 Shots on Goal 1

5 Shots off Goal 4

4 Blocked Shots 4

14 Shots insidebox 6

0 Shots outsidebox 3

8 Corner Kicks 6

0 Offsides 2

14 Fouls 11

3 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

417 Total passes 443

373 Passes accurate 402

89% Passes % 91%

-0.61 goals_prevented -0.61

Atletico-MG

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
28 Tomás Cuello M	10.0	81'	2	–	3	31 (23%)	3
14 Vitor Hugo D	7.7	90'	1	–	2	43 (39%)	–
22 Everson G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	34 (30%)	–
6 Renan Lodi D	7.2	90'	–	1	3	37 (33%)	1
17 Igor Gomes M	7.2	31'	–	1	–	11 (9%)	1
8 Maycon M	7.0	29'	–	–	–	28 (25%)	1
11 Bernard M	7.0	59'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	–
23 Ángelo Preciado D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	40 (36%)	3
39 Mamady Cissé M	6.9	61'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	2
9 Mateo Cassierra F	6.9	90'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	–
15 Kevin Castaño M	6.7	29'	–	–	–	25 (24%)	1
21 Alan Franco M	6.6	61'	–	–	–	31 (31%)	1
4 Ruan D	6.6	90'	–	–	1	40 (38%)	1
27 Alan Minda F	6.3	9'	–	–	–	2 (1%)	–
92 Dudu F	6.3	9'	–	–	–	1	–
30 Victor Hugo M	6.0	81'	–	–	–	30 (26%)	–

Gremio

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Erick Noriega M	7.0	90'	–	–	–	72 (64%)	1
21 Tetê F	6.9	45'	–	–	–	25 (22%)	2
4 Walter Kannemann D	6.7	45'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	2
38 Caio Paulista D	6.7	14'	–	–	–	11 (11%)	–
7 Cristian Pavón M	6.6	45'	–	–	–	12 (10%)	–
82 Wallace D	6.3	90'	–	–	1	61 (56%)	1
1 Weverton G	6.3	90'	–	–	–	23 (19%)	–
6 Gustavo Martins D	6.3	45'	–	–	1	39 (39%)	–
5 Juan Nardoni M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	6 (6%)	1
37 Gabriel Mec F	6.3	27'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
95 Carlos Vinícius F	6.3	90'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
9 Francis Amuzu M	6.3	90'	–	–	2	25 (20%)	–
54 Pedro Gabriel D	6.3	76'	–	–	1	29 (25%)	3
27 Diego Caito D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	51 (48%)	–
10 Filip Krovinović M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	33 (33%)	–
17 Dodi M	6.2	63'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	–

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Confidence Medium (54%)

At a glance

Analiza noastră

Victorie sau egal dificil pentru Atletico-MG

Most likely score

1:0 · 14.3%

Both teams to score

42%

Over 2.5 goals

41%

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Atletico-MG

DWLLW

Gremio

DLLLW

Last 3 meetings Atletico-MG · 0W 0D 3L

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

54%

45%

Draw

27%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Gremio goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	11	6	3	1
1	14	13	4	1
2	13	9	3	1
3	7	5	2
4	3	2	1
5	1	1

↑ Atletico-MG goals · most likely 1–0 (14.3%)

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Players in form

Atletico-MG

No scorer data.

Gremio

Carlos Vinícius 10 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

54%

Draw

27%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

79% Home (No Draw) 21% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

32% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

57% Home Scores More 28% Equal Goals 15% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

31%

1.5

69%

59%

2.5

41%

80%

3.5

20%

92%

4.5

97%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

58% BTTS No 42% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

11%

20%

28%

21%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.3%	5.6%	2.5%	0.6%	0.1%
1	14.3%	12.8%	4.1%	1.0%	0.2%
2	12.7%	9.1%	3.3%	0.8%	0.1%
3	6.8%	4.9%	1.8%	0.4%	0.1%
4	2.7%	2.0%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

70%

1.5

30%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

35%

21%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

30%

0.5

70%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

30%

33%

24%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Atletico-MG	Draw	Gremio
Atletico-MG	39.0%	4.3%	1.1%
Draw	18.0%	18.7%	7.6%
Gremio	1.4%	2.7%	7.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

80%

53%

1.5

48%

79%

2.5

21%

93%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

20%

32%

26%

14%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

49%

0.5

51%

84%

1.5

16%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

49%

35%

13%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

64%

0.5

36%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Atletico-MG vs Gremio

0 Atletico-MG Wins

0 Draws

3 Gremio Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
26 Feb 2026	Gremio	2 - 1	Atletico-MG
17 Aug 2025	Atletico-MG	1 - 3	Gremio
29 Mar 2025	Gremio	2 - 1	Atletico-MG

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Atletico-MG — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	H Chapecoense-sc	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	H Fluminense	W	3 - 1
09 Sep	A Santos	L	2 - 0
05 Sep	A Sao Paulo	L	2 - 0
02 Sep	H Cruzeiro	W	2 - 1

Gremio — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Palmeiras	D	0 - 0
16 Sep	A Botafogo	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Vasco DA Gama	L	1 - 2
07 Sep	A Vitoria	L	1 - 0
03 Sep	H Internacional	W	3 - 1

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Gremio

Formation: 4-1-4-1 Coach: Luis Castro

1 Weverton

54 Gabriel

82 Wallace

6 Martins

27 Caito

8 Noriega

9 Amuzu

17 Dodi

5 Nardoni

7 Pavón

95 Vinícius

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Weverton	G
27	Diego Caito	D
6	Gustavo Martins	D
82	Wallace	D
54	Pedro Gabriel	D
8	Erick Noriega	M
7	Cristian Pavón	M
5	Juan Nardoni	M
17	Dodi	M
9	Francis Amuzu	M
95	Carlos Vinícius	F

Substitutes

4	Walter Kannemann	D
10	Filip Krovinović	M
21	Tetê	F
37	Gabriel Mec	F
12	Gabriel Grando	G
3	Wagner Leonardo	D
14	Marcos Rocha	D
38	Caio Paulista	D
50	Zortéa	M
77	Jovane Cabral	F
99	José Enamorado	F
22	Martin Braithwaite	F

Atletico-MG

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Eduardo Dominguez

22 Everson

6 Lodi

14 Hugo

4 Ruan

23 Preciado

21 Franco

39 Cissé

17 Gomes

30 Hugo

28 Cuello

9 Cassierra

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
22	Everson	G
23	Ángelo Preciado	D
4	Ruan	D
14	Vitor Hugo	D
6	Renan Lodi	D
39	Mamady Cissé	M
21	Alan Franco	M
28	Tomás Cuello	M
30	Victor Hugo	M
17	Igor Gomes	M
9	Mateo Cassierra	F

Substitutes

11	Bernard	M
8	Maycon	M
15	Kevin Castaño	M
1	Gabriel Delfim	G
2	Natanael	D
40	Vitor Fernandes Chaves Teixeira	D
36	Kauã Pascini	D
19	Reinier	M
25	Tomás Pérez	M
27	Alan Minda	F
18	Thiago Borbas	F
92	Dudu	F