Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense Predicție

Serie A · Regular Season - 19

Post on X

Atletico Paranaense

Away

Predicție AI Sao Paulo sau egal

46%

35%

19%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 46% pentru victoria lui Sao Paulo, 19% pentru Atletico Paranaense și 35% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 23 Jul 2026, 11:21.

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Timeline

▮ 18'

Arthur Dias Yellow Card

Artur

19' ⚽ 1–0

Rafael Tolói ⇄ Luis Osorio

23' ⇄

HT 1–0

⚽ 1–1 46'

Leozinho

⇄ 46'

Arthur Dias ⇄ Carlos Terán

⇄ 46'

⇄ Claudinho

⚽ 1–2 51'

Leozinho assist: Lucas Esquivel

Pablo Maia ⇄ Ferreirinha

64' ⇄

Jonathan Calleri ⇄ André Silva

64' ⇄

Damián Bobadilla ⇄ Danielzinho

74' ⇄

⇄ Victor Sá

75' ⇄

⇄ 76'

Leozinho

⇄ 83'

Gilberto

FT 1–2

Sao Paulo

Match Stats

Atletico Paranaense

70% Ball Possession 30%

0.85 Expected Goals (xG) 1.79

17 Total Shots 11

3 Shots on Goal 3

6 Shots off Goal 6

8 Blocked Shots 2

6 Shots insidebox 8

11 Shots outsidebox 3

7 Corner Kicks 3

Offsides

7 Fouls 15

0 Yellow Cards 1

Red Cards

1 Goalkeeper Saves 2

626 Total passes 263

567 Passes accurate 211

91% Passes % 80%

-0.35 goals_prevented -0.35

Sao Paulo

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Marcos Antônio M	8.2	95'	–	–	–	102 (95%)	1
5 Robert Arboleda D	7.9	95'	–	–	1	70 (66%)	5
37 Artur F	7.5	95'	1	–	1	41 (34%)	–
29 Pablo Maia M	7.2	64'	–	–	2	64 (58%)	2
10 Luciano F	7.2	95'	–	–	1	30 (26%)	2
11 Ferreirinha F	7.0	31'	–	–	1	24 (22%)	–
2 Rafael Tolói D	6.9	23'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	1
9 Jonathan Calleri F	6.9	64'	–	–	2	12 (9%)	–
54 Luis Osorio D	6.9	72'	–	–	–	66 (62%)	4
18 Wendell D	6.7	95'	–	–	1	61 (56%)	2
17 André Silva F	6.7	31'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	1
94 Danielzinho M	6.6	21'	–	–	–	16 (14%)	1
16 Damián Bobadilla M	6.3	74'	–	–	–	44 (38%)	–
23 Rafael G	6.3	95'	–	–	–	27 (24%)	–
19 Lucas Ramon D	6.3	75'	–	–	–	36 (32%)	2
27 Victor Sá F	6.2	20'	–	–	–	9 (9%)	–

Atletico Paranaense

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
21 Leozinho F	8.3	76'	2	–	4	27 (19%)	–
22 Carlos Terán D	7.3	50'	–	–	1	10 (7%)	1
37 Lucas Esquivel D	7.2	95'	–	1	–	37 (29%)	1
23 Santos G	7.0	95'	–	–	–	15 (11%)	–
33 Juan Felipe Aguirre D	7.0	95'	–	–	–	28 (26%)	2
14 Luiz Gustavo M	7.0	95'	–	–	1	26 (26%)	–
12 Gilberto M	6.9	83'	–	–	–	26 (19%)	2
26 Claudinho D	6.9	50'	–	–	1	11 (6%)	3
7 Steven Mendoza M	6.7	95'	–	–	1	24 (18%)	–
11 Isaac F	6.6	19'	–	–	–	1	1
8 João Cruz F	6.5	45'	–	–	–	15 (12%)	–
16 Jádson M	6.3	95'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	2
4 Arthur Dias D	6.2	45'	–	–	–	15 (13%)	2
9 Kevin Viveros F	6.2	95'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	–
2 Gilberto Junior D	6.2	12'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence Low (46%)

At a glance

Analiza noastră

Sao Paulo sau egal

Most likely score

0:0 · 19.5%

Both teams to score

32%

Over 2.5 goals

25%

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Sao Paulo

WDLLW

Atletico Paranaense

WDLDW

Last 3 meetings Sao Paulo · 2W 1D 0L

Match summary

In this Serie A clash, Sao Paulo faces Atletico Paranaense with both teams aiming for vital points. Sao Paulo has shown a solid home record, while Atletico Paranaense typically excels in counter-attacking play. Key players to watch include Sao Paulo's attacking threat and Atletico's midfield control. Statistical analysis indicates that Sao Paulo's defense will need to be vigilant against Atletico's pace on the break. Overall, this match promises to be a tactical battle, with both teams looking to capitalize on any defensive lapses.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

46%

45%

Draw

35%

45%

Away

19%

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Atletico Paranaense goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	20	9	3	1
1	18	14	4	1
2	11	7	2
3	4	2	1
4	1	1
5

↑ Sao Paulo goals · most likely 0–0 (19.5%)

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Players in form

Sao Paulo

Luciano 8 gls

J. Calleri 8 gls

Atletico Paranaense

K. Viveros 18 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

35%

Away Win

19%

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

81%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

97%

4.5

99%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

46%

Draw

35%

Away Win

19%

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

71% Home (No Draw) 29% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

20% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

46% Home Scores More 35% Equal Goals 19% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

20%

0.5

81%

47%

1.5

53%

75%

2.5

25%

90%

3.5

10%

97%

4.5

99%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

68% BTTS No 32% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

20%

28%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

55% Even Total Goals 45% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	19.5%	9.4%	3.3%	0.7%	0.1%
1	18.3%	13.7%	3.7%	0.8%	0.1%
2	11.0%	6.7%	2.1%	0.4%	0.1%
3	4.1%	2.5%	0.8%	0.2%	0.0%
4	1.1%	0.7%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

47%

0.5

53%

81%

1.5

19%

96%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

47%

34%

15%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

75%

1.5

25%

93%

2.5

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

40%

35%

18%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Sao Paulo	Draw	Atletico Paranaense
Sao Paulo	27.0%	3.3%	0.6%
Draw	18.9%	26.7%	8.5%
Atletico Paranaense	1.3%	3.4%	10.3%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

70%

1.5

30%

90%

2.5

10%

97%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

33%

37%

20%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

61%

0.5

39%

91%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

54%

0.5

46%

87%

1.5

13%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

54%

33%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

76%

0.5

24%

97%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

72%

0.5

28%

96%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Sao Paulo vs Atletico Paranaense

2 Sao Paulo Wins

1 Draws

0 Atletico Paranaense Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
09 Nov 2024	Sao Paulo	2 - 1	Atletico Paranaense
03 Jul 2024	Atletico Paranaense	1 - 2	Sao Paulo
29 Oct 2023	Atletico Paranaense	1 - 1	Sao Paulo

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Sao Paulo — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Internacional	W	1 - 0
16 Sep	H Boca Juniors	D	1 - 1
12 Sep	A Palmeiras	L	2 - 0
09 Sep	A Boca Juniors	L	1 - 0
05 Sep	H Atletico-MG	W	2 - 0

Atletico Paranaense — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Bahia	W	2 - 1
12 Sep	A Coritiba	D	3 - 3
06 Sep	A Cruzeiro	L	3 - 1
30 Aug	H Fluminense	D	3 - 3
24 Aug	A Botafogo	W	2 - 3

Serie A Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Flamengo	28	18	6	4	55	23	+32	60
2	Palmeiras	28	16	9	3	47	21	+26	57
3	Atletico Paranaense	28	14	7	7	43	32	+11	49
4	Fluminense	28	13	9	6	44	36	+8	48
5	Bahia	28	12	10	6	43	35	+8	46
6	Cruzeiro	28	13	6	9	42	40	+2	45
7	Atletico-MG	27	11	7	9	36	32	+4	40
8	Santos	27	10	8	9	41	40	+1	38
9	Coritiba	28	10	8	10	37	43	-6	38
10	RB Bragantino	27	10	6	11	33	31	+2	36
11	Sao Paulo	27	10	6	11	32	30	+2	36
12	Botafogo	28	9	8	11	41	45	-4	35
13	Vitoria	28	9	6	13	28	42	-14	33
14	Corinthians	28	8	8	12	29	32	-3	32
15	Mirassol	28	8	8	12	33	42	-9	32
16	Vasco DA Gama	27	8	7	12	34	41	-7	31
17	Gremio	28	7	8	13	30	38	-8	29
18	Internacional	28	6	10	12	30	36	-6	28
19	Remo	28	5	8	15	32	47	-15	23
20	Chapecoense B	20	1	7	12	19	41	-22	10
20	Chapecoense-sc	27	3	9	15	29	53	-24	18

Sao Paulo

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: Dorival Júnior

23 Rafael

18 Wendell

2 Tolói

5 Arboleda

19 Ramon

8 Antônio

29 Maia

16 Bobadilla

10 Luciano

9 Calleri

37 Artur

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Rafael	G
19	Lucas Ramon	D
5	Robert Arboleda	D
2	Rafael Tolói	D
18	Wendell	D
16	Damián Bobadilla	M
29	Pablo Maia	M
8	Marcos Antônio	M
37	Artur	F
9	Jonathan Calleri	F
10	Luciano	F

Substitutes

54	Luis Osorio	D
31	Carlos Coronel	G
56	Nicolas Bosshardt	D
53	Isac	D
11	Ferreirinha	F
94	Danielzinho	M
34	Tetê	F
27	Victor Sá	F
48	Djhordney Ferreira	M
80	Cauly	M
17	André Silva	F
43	Gustavo Santana	M

Atletico Paranaense

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Joao Correia

23 Santos

37 Esquivel

33 Aguirre

4 Dias

7 Mendoza

14 Gustavo

16 Jádson

12 Gilberto

8 Cruz

21 Leozinho

9 Viveros

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
23	Santos	G
4	Arthur Dias	D
33	Juan Felipe Aguirre	D
37	Lucas Esquivel	D
12	Gilberto	M
16	Jádson	M
14	Luiz Gustavo	M
7	Steven Mendoza	M
21	Leozinho	F
8	João Cruz	F
9	Kevin Viveros	F

Substitutes

42	Matheus Soares	G
22	Carlos Terán	D
6	Leonardo Derik	D
26	Claudinho	D
2	Gilberto Junior	D
3	Léo	D
27	Juan Portilla	M
63	Diogo Riquelme	M
53	Dudu	M
11	Isaac	F
70	Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno	F
19	Jorge Rivaldo	F