Lyon vs Rennes Prediction

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 32

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Rennes

Away

Predicție AI Rennes sau egal

34%

27%

39%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Lyon vs Rennes prediction: Sportiko gives Lyon a 34% chance of winning, Rennes 39% and the draw 27%. Last updated 28 Jul 2026, 05:46.

Match Report

Lyon ran out convincing 4–2 winners over Rennes in Ligue 1 Matchday 32, though the visitors made an early impression. Mousa Tamari opened the scoring in the sixth minute, but Lyon hit back through Roman Yaremchuk at 37 minutes before Corentin Tolisso converted a penalty two minutes later to give the hosts a 2–1 lead at the break.

The second half saw a flurry of goals in quick succession. Esteban Lepaul equalised for Rennes just three minutes after the restart, only for Lyon's Afonso Moreira to restore the home side's advantage at 52 minutes. Endrick then put the result beyond doubt with a goal on 75 minutes, completing a dominant Lyon display that was reflected in the statistics — the hosts registered 16 total shots to Rennes' eight and significantly outperformed their opponents in expected goals (3.17 to 0.84).

Our pre-match AI model had rated a Rennes win as the most likely outcome at 39%, a call that proved well wide of the mark. The even ball possession figures — split exactly 50–50 — belied Lyon's clear superiority across the ninety minutes.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 6'

Mousa Tamari assist: Esteban Lepaul

▮ 23'

Esteban Lepaul Yellow Card

Roman Yaremchuk assist: Corentin Tolisso

37' ⚽ 1–1

▮ 40'

Brice Samba Yellow Card

Corentin Tolisso Penalty

42' ⚽ 2–1

HT 2–1

⚽ 2–2 48'

Esteban Lepaul assist: Mousa Tamari

Afonso Moreira assist: Abner Vinícius

52' ⚽ 3–2

Roman Yaremchuk ⇄ Pavel Šulc

70' ⇄

⇄ 70'

Sebastian Szymański ⇄ Ludovic Blas

⇄ 71'

Alidu Seidu ⇄ Mahamadou Nagida

Endrick assist: Corentin Tolisso

75' ⚽ 4–2

▮ 82'

Quentin Merlin Yellow Card

Endrick ⇄ Ernest Nuamah

84' ⇄

Tyler Morton ⇄ Ruben Kluivert

84' ⇄

Khalis Merah

84' ⇄

⇄ 87'

Esteban Lepaul ⇄ Yassir Zabiri

⇄ 87'

Mousa Tamari ⇄ Nordan Mukiele

⇄ 87'

Mahdi Camara ⇄ Djaoui Cissé

Abner Vinícius ⇄ Noah Nartey

90+3' ⇄

FT 4–2

Lyon

Match Stats

Rennes

50% Ball Possession 50%

3.17 Expected Goals (xG) 0.84

16 Total Shots 8

9 Shots on Goal 5

3 Shots off Goal 3

4 Blocked Shots 0

9 Shots insidebox 5

7 Shots outsidebox 3

7 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 4

10 Fouls 14

0 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

3 Goalkeeper Saves 5

399 Total passes 411

333 Passes accurate 345

83% Passes % 84%

0.78 goals_prevented 0.78

Lyon

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
8 Corentin Tolisso M	8.7	90'	1	2	1	41 (32%)	–
17 Afonso Moreira M	8.7	90'	1	–	3	24 (20%)	1
9 Endrick M	8.5	84'	1	–	2	22 (18%)	1
77 Roman Yaremchuk F	7.9	70'	1	–	2	12 (10%)	1
1 Dominik Greif G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	34 (28%)	–
19 Moussa Niakhaté D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	51 (47%)	2
16 Abner Vinícius D	6.9	89'	–	1	1	45 (37%)	1
10 Pavel Šulc M	6.7	20'	–	–	1	6 (6%)	2
44 Khalis Merah M	6.7	84'	–	–	–	36 (31%)	3
21 Ruben Kluivert D	6.6	14'	–	–	–	3	–
39 Mathys de Carvalho M	6.6	14'	–	–	–	5 (4%)	1
37 Ernest Nuamah F	6.5	14'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
22 Clinton Mata D	6.5	90'	–	–	1	42 (37%)	1
23 Tyler Morton M	6.3	84'	–	–	1	36 (30%)	1
98 Ainsley Maitland-Niles D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	36 (27%)	–
99 Noah Nartey M	—	1'	–	–	–	4 (4%)	–

Rennes

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Esteban Lepaul F	7.6	87'	1	1	3	20 (16%)	–
11 Mousa Tamari M	7.3	87'	1	1	1	9 (6%)	1
30 Brice Samba G	6.9	90'	–	–	–	36 (30%)	1
10 Ludovic Blas F	6.9	20'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	1
21 Valentin Rongier M	6.7	90'	–	–	–	53 (46%)	5
6 Djaoui Cissé M	6.7	11'	–	–	–	9 (6%)	1
77 Yassir Zabiri F	6.7	11'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	1
17 Sebastian Szymański M	6.6	70'	–	–	1	28 (24%)	1
7 Breel Embolo F	6.5	90'	–	–	1	8 (7%)	–
45 Mahdi Camara M	6.5	87'	–	–	2	36 (33%)	3
65 Nordan Mukiele F	6.5	11'	–	–	–	11 (8%)	–
26 Quentin Merlin D	6.3	90'	–	–	–	52 (41%)	4
48 Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal D	6.2	90'	–	–	–	60 (56%)	2
18 Mahamadou Nagida D	6.0	19'	–	–	–	13 (11%)	–
36 Alidu Seidu D	5.9	71'	–	–	–	40 (33%)	1
3 Lilian Brassier D	5.6	90'	–	–	–	27 (21%)	1

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Confidence Medium (57%)

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Rennes sau egal

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Lyon

LLWWL

Rennes

DWWLL

Last 3 meetings Lyon · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Ligue 1 clash on May 3, 2026, Lyon will host Rennes at the Groupama Stadium. Historically, Lyon has had a strong home advantage, boasting a high win percentage at home, particularly against mid-table teams like Rennes. Both teams are expected to field their strongest lineups, with Lyon's attacking prowess led by their top scorer, who has consistently contributed to their goal tally this season. Rennes, however, has shown resilience in away matches, with a solid defensive record. Key battles in midfield will likely determine control of the game, making this a crucial fixture for both sides as they vie for European competition spots.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Rennes goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	8	10	7	3	1
1	10	13	8	4	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	2	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Lyon goals · most likely 1–1 (12.7%)

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Head to Head: Lyon vs Rennes

1 Lyon Wins

0 Draws

2 Rennes Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Sep 2025	Rennes	3 - 1	Lyon
26 Apr 2025	Lyon	4 - 1	Rennes
18 Aug 2024	Rennes	3 - 0	Lyon

See all 10 meetings — Premium

Lyon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
04 Aug	A Sparta Praha	L	2 - 1
29 Jul	A Real Betis	L	4 - 0
15 Jul	H Servette FC	W	2 - 1
11 Jul	H FC ST. Gallen	W	6 - 3
17 May	H Lens	L	0 - 4

Rennes — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
02 Aug	A Galatasaray	D	3 - 3
25 Jul	H Club Brugge KV	W	2 - 1
17 Jul	H Guingamp	W	2 - 1
09 Jul	H Caen	L	1 - 2
17 May	A Marseille	L	3 - 1

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Auxerre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Angers	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Stade Brestois 29	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Lorient	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Le Havre	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Le Mans	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Lille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Nice	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Lyon	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Marseille	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Paris FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	Paris Saint Germain	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	Lens	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Rennes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Strasbourg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	Toulouse	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	Estac Troyes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0