Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29 Predicție

Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 3

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Stade Brestois 29

Away

Stade Océane, Le Havre

Predicție AI Stade Brestois 29 sau egal

34%

30%

36%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 34% pentru victoria lui Le Havre, 36% pentru Stade Brestois 29 și 30% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 5 Sep 2026, 20:46.

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Sub 3.5 goluri 75%
Oaspeții marchează 72%
Echipa Gazdă Marchează 71%
1st Half Over 0.5 72%

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Match Report

Stade Brestois 29 claimed a 2–1 victory at Le Havre in Ligue 1's third matchday, with Kamory Doumbia proving the decisive figure. The visitors took an early grip on proceedings when Doumbia converted a penalty in the 12th minute, and Brest carried that advantage into the break despite Le Havre enjoying spells of pressure.

The home side's task grew considerably harder just before half-time when Junior Mwanga was shown a red card in second-half stoppage time of the first half, leaving Le Havre to play the second period a man down. Doumbia punished them further with a second goal on 51 minutes, extending Brest's lead. Le Havre refused to capitulate, however, and pulled one back through a Rayan Fofana penalty on 79 minutes to set up a tense finish. Our pre-match AI model had identified a Brest win as the most likely outcome at 36%, a call that proved correct.

Despite Le Havre registering 19 total shots and nine on target compared to Brest's four, the visitors' clinical finishing and numerical advantage ultimately proved the difference, securing three points for Brest.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Lionel Mpasi Nzau Yellow Card

10' ▮

⚽ 0–1 12'

Kamory Doumbia Penalty

⇄ 22'

Kenny Lala ⇄ Luc Zogbé

Yellow Card

38' ▮

▮ 39'

Kamory Doumbia Yellow Card

Rassoul Ndiaye ⇄ Sota Nakamura

45' ⇄

Junior Mwanga Red Card

45+2' ▮

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 51'

Kamory Doumbia assist: Mama Baldé

Josh Maja ⇄ Rayan Fofana

62' ⇄

Timothee Pembele ⇄ Enzo Koffi

62' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Mama Baldé ⇄ Noah Edjouma

⇄ 75'

Kamory Doumbia ⇄ Lucas Tousart

⇄ 75'

Pathé Mboup ⇄ G. Versini

⇄ 75'

Hugo Magnetti ⇄ Joseph Nonge

Rayan Fofana Penalty

79' ⚽ 1–2

Elias Jelert

79' ⇄

Lionel Mpasi Nzau ⇄ G. Gallon

90+4' ⇄

FT 1–2

Le Havre

Match Stats

Stade Brestois 29

56% Ball Possession 44%

18 Total Shots 19

4 Shots on Goal 9

10 Shots off Goal 8

4 Blocked Shots 2

11 Shots insidebox 12

5 Shots outsidebox 7

5 Corner Kicks 5

1 Offsides 0

15 Fouls 18

1 Yellow Cards 1

1 Red Cards 0

7 Goalkeeper Saves 3

452 Total passes 367

372 Passes accurate 286

14 Free Kicks 14

Le Havre

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
77 Lionel Mpasi Nzau G	7.6	94'	–	–	–	36 (27%)	–
38 Rayan Fofana F	7.5	28'	1	–	2	5 (4%)	–
14 Rassoul Ndiaye M	7.2	46'	–	–	2	20 (19%)	–
5 Ahmed Touba D	7.0	90'	–	–	1	57 (46%)	4
15 Ayumu Seko D	6.9	90'	–	–	–	60 (53%)	1
27 Enzo Koffi F	6.9	28'	–	–	–	18 (16%)	1
7 Amir Richardson M	6.6	90'	–	–	2	66 (54%)	4
12 Elias Jelert M	6.5	79'	–	–	–	27 (23%)	–
Seamus Maughan	6.4	11'	–	–	1	11 (10%)	–
26 Simon Ebonog M	6.4	90'	–	–	–	58 (51%)	2
30 Sota Nakamura F	6.4	44'	–	–	1	17 (13%)	–
9 Josh Maja F	6.3	62'	–	–	1	18 (12%)	–
32 Timothee Pembele M	6.2	62'	–	–	2	18 (12%)	3
25 Mbwana Ally Samatta M	5.8	90'	–	–	4	22 (14%)	2
6 Junior Mwanga D	5.0	47'	–	–	–	15 (15%)	–

Stade Brestois 29

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
23 Kamory Doumbia M	7.5	75'	2	–	3	33 (26%)	2
17 Mama Baldé M	7.3	67'	–	1	2	24 (18%)	3
13 Joris Chotard M	7.2	90'	–	–	1	52 (44%)	1
9 Pathé Mboup M	7.0	75'	–	–	4	17 (15%)	1
71 Raphaël Le Guen D	6.9	90'	–	–	2	32 (26%)	1
11 Noah Edjouma F	6.8	23'	–	–	1	1 (1%)	–
4 Gautier Lloris D	6.8	90'	–	–	–	34 (29%)	3
8 Hugo Magnetti M	6.7	75'	–	–	1	36 (33%)	4
2 Bradley Locko D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	33 (25%)	1
20 Luc Zogbé D	6.5	68'	–	–	1	27 (21%)	2
10 G. Versini F	6.5	15'	–	–	1	4 (1%)	2
19 Ludovic Ajorque F	6.4	90'	–	–	3	26 (21%)	1
70 Kenny Lala D	6.3	22'	–	–	–	10 (7%)	–
29 Lucas Tousart M	6.3	15'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	1
7 Joseph Nonge M	6.3	15'	–	–	–	5 (2%)	1
1 Egil Selvik G	6.2	90'	–	–	–	30 (15%)	–

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Confidence Low (36%)

At a glance

Analiza noastră

Stade Brestois 29 sau egal

Most likely score

1:1 · 14.5%

Both teams to score

53%

Over 2.5 goals

46%

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Le Havre

LDLDL

Stade Brestois 29

LLWDD

Last 3 meetings Le Havre · 1W 0D 2L

Match summary

Le Havre will face Stade Brestois 29 in a Ligue 1 clash. Le Havre has shown robust defensive capabilities, conceding only an average of 1.2 goals per match this season, while Brestois has struggled offensively, averaging just 1 goal per match. Both teams have had mixed results in their recent fixtures, but Le Havre's home form has been slightly stronger, with 60% of their points earned at home. The match could hinge on Le Havre's ability to exploit Brestois's defensive weaknesses, especially in transition.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

34%

10%

Draw

30%

45%

Away

36%

45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Stade Brestois 29 goals →

	0	1	2	3	4
0	10	9	7	3	1
1	8	14	8	3	1
2	6	8	5	2	1
3	3	3	2	1
4	1	1	1
5

↑ Le Havre goals · most likely 1–1 (14.5%)

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Players in form

Le Havre

M. Samatta 2 gls

Stade Brestois 29

K. Doumbia 4 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

36%

Home Win

34%

Draw

30%

Double Chance

Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

51% Away (No Draw) 49% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

16% Away Win by 2+ 15% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

36% Away Scores More 34% Home Scores More 30% Equal Goals

Total Goals

Under Line Over

10%

0.5

90%

27%

1.5

73%

54%

2.5

46%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

53% BTTS Yes 47% BTTS No

Exact Goals

10%

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

54% Even Total Goals 46% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.7%	8.6%	6.6%	2.8%	0.9%
1	8.3%	14.5%	8.2%	3.5%	1.1%
2	6.3%	8.0%	5.1%	2.2%	0.7%
3	2.6%	3.3%	2.1%	0.9%	0.3%
4	0.8%	1.0%	0.7%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

60%

1.5

40%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

28%

32%

25%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

32%

33%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Le Havre	Draw	Stade Brestois 29
Le Havre	23.2%	5.0%	1.9%
Draw	10.7%	19.0%	12.6%
Stade Brestois 29	1.3%	4.1%	22.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

65%

1.5

35%

87%

2.5

13%

96%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

29%

36%

22%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

50%

0.5

50%

85%

1.5

15%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

57%

0.5

43%

89%

1.5

11%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

28%

0.5

72%

64%

1.5

36%

86%

2.5

14%

96%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

28%

36%

23%

10%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

52%

0.5

48%

86%

1.5

14%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

53%

0.5

47%

87%

1.5

13%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Le Havre vs Stade Brestois 29

1 Le Havre Wins

0 Draws

2 Stade Brestois 29 Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
08 Mar 2026	Stade Brestois 29	2 - 0	Le Havre
29 Oct 2025	Le Havre	1 - 0	Stade Brestois 29
26 Jan 2025	Le Havre	0 - 1	Stade Brestois 29

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Le Havre — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
19 Sep	A Toulouse	L	3 - 2
12 Sep	H Angers	D	0 - 0
05 Sep	H Stade Brestois 29	L	1 - 2
29 Aug	A Lyon	D	1 - 1
23 Aug	H Monaco	L	0 - 1

Stade Brestois 29 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Auxerre	L	2 - 1
13 Sep	H Paris Saint Germain	L	0 - 1
05 Sep	A Le Havre	W	1 - 2
29 Aug	H Toulouse	D	2 - 2
22 Aug	A Le Mans	D	2 - 2

Ligue 1 Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	5	4	1	0	8	3	+5	13
2	Lyon	5	3	2	0	10	2	+8	11
3	Paris FC	5	3	2	0	8	3	+5	11
4	Lille	5	3	1	1	8	4	+4	10
5	Rennes	5	3	1	1	8	9	-1	10
6	Paris Saint Germain	5	2	2	1	8	7	+1	8
7	Angers	5	2	1	2	6	5	+1	7
8	Strasbourg	5	2	1	2	10	10	0	7
9	Le Mans	5	1	3	1	9	9	0	6
10	Auxerre	5	2	0	3	7	12	-5	6
11	Stade Brestois 29	5	1	2	2	7	8	-1	5
12	Lorient	5	1	2	2	5	6	-1	5
13	Toulouse	5	1	2	2	7	9	-2	5
14	Nice	5	1	2	2	3	6	-3	5
15	Lens	5	1	1	3	9	9	0	4
16	Estac Troyes	5	1	1	3	4	11	-7	4
17	Marseille	5	1	0	4	7	8	-1	3
18	Le Havre	5	0	2	3	4	7	-3	2