FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München Predicție

Bundesliga · Regular Season - 9

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Bayern München

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MEWA ARENA, Mainz

Predicție AI Bayern München să câștige sau să egaleze

10%

16%

74%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 10% pentru victoria lui FSV Mainz 05, 74% pentru Bayern München și 16% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 7 Nov 2026, 16:28.

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Away 1H Over 0.5 76%

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Match Report

Bayern München secured a hard-fought 2–1 victory at FSV Mainz 05 in Bundesliga Matchday 9, with Joshua Kimmich's 14th-minute strike giving the visitors an early lead. Mainz had a goal from Jae-sung Lee ruled out by VAR just before half-time, leaving Bayern in control at the break despite the hosts dominating possession with 70% of the ball and generating 2.67 expected goals to Bayern's 0.59.

Mainz levelled through substitute Lennart Karl in the 57th minute, briefly threatening an upset, but Karl was withdrawn just ten minutes after scoring as both sides made multiple changes. Bayern's resilience proved decisive, and the result was sealed in the 90th minute when Phillip Tietz converted to restore the visitors' advantage and wrap up the three points. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Bayern win as most likely at 74%, a call that proved correct.

Despite being thoroughly outplayed in terms of possession and shot volume, Bayern demonstrated their clinical edge when it mattered, taking nine shots on goal to Mainz's solitary effort while still finding a way to win from a position of relative adversity.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

⚽ 0–1 14'

Joshua Kimmich assist: Harry Kane

Jae-sung Lee Goal cancelled

44' 🖵

⇄ 45'

Manuel Neuer ⇄ Jonas Urbig

HT 0–1

⚽ 0–2 57'

Lennart Karl assist: Harry Kane

Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer ⇄ Phillip Tietz

63' ⇄

Jae-sung Lee ⇄ Paul Nebel

63' ⇄

⇄ 67'

Lennart Karl ⇄ Tom Bischof

⇄ 67'

Josip Stanišić ⇄ Alphonso Davies

Sheraldo Becker ⇄ B. Hollerbach

68' ⇄

Silvan Widmer ⇄ R. Nakuzola

69' ⇄

▮ 76'

Konrad Laimer Yellow Card

Anthony Caci ⇄ Eric Martel

82' ⇄

⇄ 86'

Konrad Laimer ⇄ Hiroki Itō

⇄ 86'

Joshua Kimmich ⇄ Sacha Boey

Phillip Tietz assist: B. Hollerbach

90+2' ⚽ 1–2

FT 1–2

FSV Mainz 05

Match Stats

Bayern München

30% Ball Possession 70%

0.59 Expected Goals (xG) 2.67

11 Total Shots 26

1 Shots on Goal 9

7 Shots off Goal 10

3 Blocked Shots 7

7 Shots insidebox 17

4 Shots outsidebox 9

7 Corner Kicks 8

2 Offsides 1

8 Fouls 8

0 Yellow Cards 1

0 Red Cards 0

6 Goalkeeper Saves 0

312 Total passes 707

230 Passes accurate 643

8 Free Kicks 8

FSV Mainz 05

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Phillip Tietz F	7.3	27'	1	–	1	14 (8%)	–
27 Robin Zentner G	7.2	90'	–	–	–	46 (22%)	–
47 R. Nakuzola D	6.7	21'	–	–	–	6 (5%)	1
21 Danny da Costa D	6.6	90'	–	–	–	22 (20%)	4
19 Anthony Caci M	6.5	82'	–	–	–	31 (25%)	2
48 Kacper Potulski D	6.4	90'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	6
17 B. Hollerbach F	6.4	22'	–	1	1	6 (5%)	1
7 Jae-sung Lee M	6.3	63'	–	–	2	16 (10%)	5
10 Nadiem Amiri M	6.3	90'	–	–	3	40 (32%)	–
23 Sheraldo Becker F	6.3	68'	–	–	1	17 (12%)	–
30 Silvan Widmer M	6.2	69'	–	–	–	14 (10%)	6
6 Kaishu Sano M	6.1	90'	–	–	1	19 (14%)	3
8 Paul Nebel M	6.0	27'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	2
5 Eric Martel M	6.0	8'	–	–	–	–	–
11 Ransford Yeboah Königsdörffer F	5.9	63'	–	–	2	12 (9%)	1
3 F. Gruber D	5.8	90'	–	–	–	31 (26%)	1

Bayern München

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
9 Harry Kane F	8.6	90'	–	2	6	30 (28%)	2
6 Joshua Kimmich M	8.2	86'	1	–	3	98 (90%)	2
42 Lennart Karl M	8.0	67'	1	–	4	37 (28%)	1
2 Dayot Upamecano D	7.6	90'	–	–	2	84 (80%)	4
4 Jonathan Tah D	7.2	90'	–	–	–	74 (72%)	5
17 Michael Olise M	7.2	90'	–	–	5	64 (61%)	3
45 Aleksandar Pavlović M	7.1	90'	–	–	1	126 (116%)	3
8 Tom Bischof M	6.8	23'	–	–	–	23 (20%)	1
11 Nathaniel Brown M	6.7	90'	–	–	3	31 (25%)	2
21 Hiroki Itō D	6.7	4'	–	–	–	3 (3%)	1
27 Konrad Laimer D	6.6	86'	–	–	–	63 (58%)	2
23 Sacha Boey D	6.6	4'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
19 Alphonso Davies D	6.5	23'	–	–	1	11 (11%)	–
44 Josip Stanišić D	6.5	67'	–	–	1	44 (38%)	1
1 Manuel Neuer G	6.4	45'	–	–	–	7 (6%)	–
40 Jonas Urbig G	6.3	45'	–	–	–	20 (14%)	–

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Confidence High (74%)

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Bayern München să câștige sau să egaleze

Most likely score

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Over 2.5 goals

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FSV Mainz 05

LLLLW

Bayern München

WWDWW

Last 3 meetings FSV Mainz 05 · 0W 1D 2L

Match summary

In the upcoming Bundesliga clash, FSV Mainz 05 will face Bayern München. Mainz has struggled against top-tier teams, with a recent record showing a high concession rate in defense, averaging over 2 goals against in their last five matches. Bayern, on the other hand, boasts a potent attack, featuring one of the league's top scorers, and has secured victories with a strong away form. This match will likely hinge on Mainz's ability to contain Bayern's offensive threats while capitalizing on any defensive lapses from the visitors. Expect a dynamic contest, with Bayern favored to continue their pursuit of the title.

Live insights

90' Goal 80% sure

Late goal makes it 1-2! Bayern München win probability: 95.4%. Over 0.5 remaining goals: 9.5%.

75' time check 80% sure

Min 75: Bayern München leads 0-2. Win probability: 99.1%. Comeback chance: 0.9%.

58' Goal 85% sure

Bayern München now leads 0-2 with 97.8% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 75.9%.

45' half time 65% sure

Half-time: 0-1. Bayern München leads. Win probability: 88.5%. Over 0.5 more goals: 86.1%.

41' Goal 65% sure

Equalizer scored! Match now level at 1-1. Draw probability: 26.3%. Expect an open game as both teams push for the winner.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Players in form

FSV Mainz 05

P. Tietz 5 gls

A. Caci 3 gls

Bayern München

M. Olise 6 gls

L. Díaz 4 gls

H. Kane 4 gls

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Head to Head: FSV Mainz 05 vs Bayern München

0 FSV Mainz 05 Wins

1 Draws

2 Bayern München Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
25 Apr 2026	FSV Mainz 05	3 - 4	Bayern München
14 Dec 2025	Bayern München	2 - 2	FSV Mainz 05
26 Apr 2025	Bayern München	3 - 0	FSV Mainz 05

Vezi toate cele 10 întâlniri — Premium

FSV Mainz 05 — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	H Bayern München	L	1 - 2
30 Oct	A SV Elversberg	L	4 - 1
27 Oct	A VfL Bochum	L	2 - 0
24 Oct	H Werder Bremen	L	2 - 3
17 Oct	A FC Schalke 04	W	0 - 1

Bayern München — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
07 Nov	A FSV Mainz 05	W	1 - 2
03 Nov	A Atletico Madrid	W	0 - 2
31 Oct	H Borussia Dortmund	D	2 - 2
28 Oct	H 1. FC Magdeburg	W	6 - 1
25 Oct	A SC Freiburg	W	1 - 3

Bundesliga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	29	9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16	7	+9	21
3	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27	13	+14	18
4	SC Freiburg	8	5	1	2	18	10	+8	16
5	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17	15	+2	15
6	Bayer Leverkusen	8	4	1	3	18	16	+2	13
7	SV Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17	18	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15	15	0	12
9	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15	20	-5	12
10	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	10	20	-10	12
11	FSV Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	18	19	-1	10
12	SC Paderborn 07	9	2	4	3	8	11	-3	10
13	FC Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20	20	0	9
14	1899 Hoffenheim	8	3	0	5	14	16	-2	9
15	1. FC Köln	8	2	3	3	9	12	-3	9
16	Union Berlin	8	1	4	3	7	19	-12	7
17	FC Schalke 04	8	1	3	4	4	9	-5	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	12	25	-13	4