Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad Predicție

La Liga · Regular Season - 1

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Real Sociedad

Away

Estadio Enrique Roca de Murcia, Murcia

Predicție AI Real Madrid să câștige sau să egaleze

73%

18%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 73% pentru victoria lui Real Madrid, 9% pentru Real Sociedad și 18% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 26 Aug 2026, 20:58.

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Sub 3.5 goluri 75%
1st Half Over 0.5 73%
Home/Draw & Over 1.5 71%
2nd Half Over 0.5 71%

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Match Report

Real Madrid opened the scoring through Kylian Mbappé in the 40th minute, but Real Sociedad levelled before half-time when Luka Sučić equalised four minutes later, sending the teams in level at 1–1. The first half was disrupted by bookings on both sides, with Álvaro Carreras receiving a yellow card early and Jon Aramburu picking one up in stoppage time.

The second half belonged entirely to the hosts. Mbappé restored Madrid's lead on the hour mark, and Vinícius Júnior extended the advantage to 3–1 in the 68th minute. Mbappé completed his hat-trick in the 80th minute to seal a commanding victory, with a late goal from Brahim Díaz ruled out for offside. The underlying numbers underlined Madrid's dominance — 11 shots on target and an expected goals figure of 3.14 compared to Sociedad's 0.57, despite the sides sharing possession equally.

The pre-match AI model had flagged a Real Madrid win as the most likely outcome at 73%, a call that proved well-founded. Carlo Ancelotti's side move into the new La Liga campaign with an emphatic statement result.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Álvaro Carreras Yellow Card

10' ▮

▮ 31'

Yangel Herrera Yellow Card

Kylian Mbappé assist: Federico Valverde

40' ⚽ 1–0

⚽ 1–1 44'

Luka Sučić

▮ 45+2'

Jon Aramburu Yellow Card

HT 1–1

Álvaro Carreras ⇄ Marc Cucurella

46' ⇄

⇄ 57'

Mikel Oyarzabal ⇄ Orri Steinn Óskarsson

⇄ 57'

Jon Aramburu ⇄ Igor Zubeldia

Kylian Mbappé assist: Jude Bellingham

60' ⚽ 2–1

⇄ 66'

Job Ochieng ⇄ Ander Barrenetxea

⇄ 66'

Yangel Herrera ⇄ Carlos Soler

Vinícius Júnior assist: Jude Bellingham

68' ⚽ 3–1

▮ 71'

Luken Beitia Yellow Card

Ibrahima Konaté Yellow Card

73' ▮

⇄ 74'

Takefusa Kubo ⇄ Gonçalo Guedes

Jude Bellingham ⇄ Eduardo Camavinga

78' ⇄

Arda Güler ⇄ Brahim Díaz

78' ⇄

Kylian Mbappé assist: Vinícius Júnior

80' ⚽ 4–1

Vinícius Júnior ⇄ Yan Diomande

84' ⇄

Bernardo Silva ⇄ Carlos Espí

86' ⇄

Brahim Díaz Goal Disallowed - offside

90' 🖵

Eduardo Camavinga Yellow Card

90+4' ▮

FT 4–1

Real Madrid

Match Stats

Real Sociedad

50% Ball Possession 50%

3.14 Expected Goals (xG) 0.57

20 Total Shots 10

11 Shots on Goal 3

3 Shots off Goal 4

6 Blocked Shots 3

14 Shots insidebox 7

6 Shots outsidebox 3

4 Corner Kicks 7

Offsides

9 Fouls 7

2 Yellow Cards 3

Red Cards

2 Goalkeeper Saves 7

533 Total passes 522

485 Passes accurate 476

91% Passes % 91%

-0.02 goals_prevented -0.02

Real Madrid

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
10 Kylian Mbappé F	10.0	88'	3	–	7	37 (34%)	–
5 Jude Bellingham M	9.0	78'	–	2	–	42 (40%)	2
7 Vinícius Júnior M	7.9	84'	1	1	3	31 (24%)	–
8 Federico Valverde M	7.6	88'	–	1	1	56 (52%)	2
15 Arda Güler M	7.5	78'	–	–	1	47 (42%)	2
4 Dean Huijsen D	7.3	88'	–	–	2	64 (61%)	1
16 Ibrahima Konaté D	7.2	88'	–	–	–	48 (46%)	2
20 Bernardo Silva M	7.0	86'	–	–	–	71 (63%)	4
17 Marc Cucurella D	6.9	43'	–	–	–	21 (18%)	2
6 Eduardo Camavinga M	6.9	10'	–	–	–	10 (9%)	1
1 Thibaut Courtois G	6.7	88'	–	–	–	22 (19%)	–
21 Brahim Díaz M	6.3	10'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	1
18 Álvaro Carreras D	6.3	45'	–	–	–	35 (32%)	–
24 D. Dumfries D	6.2	88'	–	–	–	40 (38%)	1
25 Yan Diomande F	—	4'	–	–	–	2	–
19 Carlos Espí F	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–

Real Sociedad

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
1 Álex Remiro G	7.9	88'	–	–	–	32 (25%)	–
24 Luka Sučić M	7.3	88'	1	–	2	53 (52%)	–
8 Beñat Turrientes M	7.0	88'	–	–	1	72 (71%)	2
18 Carlos Soler M	6.9	22'	–	–	–	20 (18%)	3
7 Ander Barrenetxea F	6.6	22'	–	–	–	7 (7%)	–
11 Gonçalo Guedes F	6.5	14'	–	–	–	8 (8%)	–
21 Yangel Herrera M	6.5	66'	–	–	–	41 (37%)	2
10 Mikel Oyarzabal F	6.3	57'	–	–	1	26 (21%)	–
9 Orri Steinn Óskarsson F	6.3	31'	–	–	–	8 (6%)	–
12 Job Ochieng M	6.3	66'	–	–	–	13 (10%)	–
14 Takefusa Kubo M	6.2	74'	–	–	–	16 (12%)	–
2 Jon Aramburu D	6.2	57'	–	–	1	34 (30%)	–
31 Jon Martin D	6.2	88'	–	–	–	49 (47%)	1
5 Igor Zubeldia D	6.2	31'	–	–	–	18 (17%)	3
17 Sergio Gómez D	6.0	88'	–	–	2	70 (63%)	1
34 Luken Beitia D	5.6	88'	–	–	–	55 (52%)	–

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Deblochează analiza completă AI pentru Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

Toate cele 70+ piețe de probabilitate
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Avantaj de Valoare — model vs. piață
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Confidence High (73%)

At a glance

Analiza noastră

Real Madrid să câștige sau să egaleze

Most likely score

2:0 · 18.4%

Both teams to score

30%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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Real Madrid

LWWWL

Real Sociedad

WLLWD

Last 3 meetings Real Madrid · 3W 0D 0L

Match summary

In this La Liga clash, Real Madrid faces Real Sociedad, with both teams showing strong form in the lead-up to the match. Real Madrid has been prolific in attack, averaging 2.5 goals per game this season, while their defense has conceded just 0.8 goals per game. Real Sociedad, known for their disciplined defensive structure, will need to capitalize on set pieces and counter-attacks to threaten Madrid's backline. Expect a tactical battle, where Madrid's attacking prowess will be tested against Sociedad's resilience.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours

Independent

Home

73%

45%

Draw

18%

45%

Away

10%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Real Sociedad goals →

	0	1	2
0	8	2	1
1	16	8	1
2	18	7	1
3	14	5	1
4	7	3	1
5	3	1

↑ Real Madrid goals · most likely 2–0 (18.4%)

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Players in form

Real Madrid

Kylian Mbappé 7 gls

J. Bellingham 3 gls

Real Sociedad

L. Sučić 3 gls

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

70% BTTS No 30% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

27%

1.5

73%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

73%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

94% Home (No Draw) 6% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

53% Home Win by 2+ 1% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

78% Home Scores More 18% Equal Goals 5% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

92%

27%

1.5

73%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

90%

4.5

10%

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

70% BTTS No 30% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

18%

27%

22%

15%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

52% Even Total Goals 48% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	8.5%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%
1	15.9%	7.6%	1.3%	0.2%	0.0%
2	18.4%	7.4%	1.5%	0.2%	0.0%
3	13.5%	5.4%	1.1%	0.1%	0.0%
4	7.4%	3.0%	0.6%	0.1%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

27%

0.5

73%

61%

1.5

39%

85%

2.5

15%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

27%

34%

24%

11%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

29%

0.5

71%

63%

1.5

37%

87%

2.5

13%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

29%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Real Madrid	Draw	Real Sociedad
Real Madrid	58.6%	2.0%	0.3%
Draw	19.2%	12.4%	2.2%
Real Sociedad	1.2%	1.6%	2.5%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

11%

0.5

89%

36%

1.5

64%

2.5

36%

84%

3.5

16%

Home Exact Goals

11%

25%

28%

20%

11%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

32%

0.5

68%

1.5

32%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

35%

0.5

65%

72%

1.5

28%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

67%

0.5

33%

94%

1.5

99%

2.5

100%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

67%

27%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

83%

0.5

17%

98%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

81%

0.5

19%

98%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Home -2 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -1 Draw

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Away +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: Real Madrid vs Real Sociedad

3 Real Madrid Wins

0 Draws

0 Real Sociedad Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
14 Feb 2026	Real Madrid	4 - 1	Real Sociedad
13 Sep 2025	Real Sociedad	1 - 2	Real Madrid
24 May 2025	Real Madrid	2 - 0	Real Sociedad

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Real Madrid — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Atletico Madrid	L	2 - 1
15 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
12 Sep	H Rayo Vallecano	W	4 - 1
08 Sep	H Inter	W	2 - 1
04 Sep	A Real Betis	L	1 - 0

Real Sociedad — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Valencia	W	2 - 3
17 Sep	H Bournemouth	L	1 - 2
13 Sep	H Atletico Madrid	L	0 - 3
07 Sep	A Elche	W	2 - 3
03 Sep	H Celta Vigo	D	0 - 0

La Liga Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	7	7	0	0	31	7	+24	21
2	Atletico Madrid	7	5	1	1	16	7	+9	16
3	Real Betis	7	5	1	1	9	7	+2	16
4	Real Madrid	7	5	0	2	18	8	+10	15
5	Sevilla	7	4	1	2	10	9	+1	13
6	Alaves	7	3	2	2	11	6	+5	11
7	Deportivo La Coruna	7	2	4	1	10	8	+2	10
8	Real Sociedad	7	3	1	3	9	13	-4	10
9	Villarreal	7	2	2	3	13	12	+1	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	7	6	+1	8
11	Getafe	7	2	2	3	4	7	-3	8
12	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	11	16	-5	8
13	Osasuna	7	2	2	3	6	13	-7	8
14	Celta Vigo	7	1	4	2	8	6	+2	7
15	Espanyol	7	2	1	4	10	10	0	7
16	Racing Santander	7	2	1	4	11	21	-10	7
17	Levante	6	1	2	3	8	12	-4	5
18	Elche	7	1	2	4	11	17	-6	5
19	Valencia	7	1	1	5	4	13	-9	4
20	Malaga	7	0	3	4	3	12	-9	3

Real Madrid

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: José Mourinho

1 Courtois

18 Carreras

4 Huijsen

16 Konaté

24 Dumfries

20 Silva

8 Valverde

7 Júnior

5 Bellingham

15 Güler

10 Mbappé

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Thibaut Courtois	G
24	Denzel Dumfries	D
16	Ibrahima Konaté	D
4	Dean Huijsen	D
18	Álvaro Carreras	D
8	Federico Valverde	M
20	Bernardo Silva	M
15	Arda Güler	M
5	Jude Bellingham	M
7	Vinícius Júnior	M
10	Kylian Mbappé	F

Substitutes

17	Marc Cucurella	D
26	Sergio Mestre	G
13	Andriy Lunin	G
12	Trent Alexander-Arnold	D
33	Mario Rivas	D
22	Antonio Rüdiger	D
36	Alexis Ciria	M
29	Jorge Cestero	M
6	Eduardo Camavinga	M
21	Brahim Díaz	M
19	Carlos Espí	F
25	Yan Diomande	F

Real Sociedad

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: Pellegrino Matarazzo

1 Remiro

17 Gómez

31 Martin

34 Beitia

2 Aramburu

8 Turrientes

21 Herrera

12 Ochieng

24 Sučić

14 Kubo

10 Oyarzabal

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Álex Remiro	G
2	Jon Aramburu	D
34	Luken Beitia	D
31	Jon Martin	D
17	Sergio Gómez	D
21	Yangel Herrera	M
8	Beñat Turrientes	M
14	Takefusa Kubo	M
24	Luka Sučić	M
12	Job Ochieng	M
10	Mikel Oyarzabal	F

Substitutes

5	Igor Zubeldia	D
9	Orri Óskarsson	F
7	Ander Barrenetxea	F
18	Carlos Soler	M
13	Unai Marrero	G
3	Aihen Muñoz	D
16	Jon Pacheco	D
29	Alex Marchal	F
11	Gonçalo Guedes	F
26	Ibai Aguirre	M
28	Alex Lebarbier	M
23	Arsen Zakharyan	M