FC Lugano vs Dukagjini Predicție

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying Round

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Dukagjini

Away

Predicție AI FC Lugano să câștige sau să egaleze

74%

18%

Victorie gazdă Egal Victorie oaspeți

Predicție FC Lugano vs Dukagjini: Sportiko estimează o probabilitate de 74% pentru victoria lui FC Lugano, 9% pentru Dukagjini și 18% pentru egal. Ultima actualizare 23 Jul 2026, 20:22.

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Sub 3.5 goluri 75%
2nd Half Over 0.5 74%

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Match Report

FC Lugano secured a narrow but comfortable 1–0 victory over Kosovo's Dukagjini in the UEFA Europa Conference League second qualifying round, with the decisive moment arriving midway through the first half. Renato Steffen's 31st-minute strike proved to be the only goal of the contest, giving the Swiss side a lead they would carry into half-time and ultimately protect for the full 90 minutes. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Lugano win as the most likely outcome at 74%, a call that proved correct.

The hosts were dominant throughout, controlling 71% of possession and registering 20 total shots to Dukagjini's 12, with seven efforts on target compared to three from the visitors. Lugano's superiority was clear, though they were unable to add to their tally despite sustained pressure.

The second half grew increasingly fractious, with yellow cards issued on both sides and a red card shown in the 87th minute adding late drama. Both teams made multiple substitutions as the game wound down, but Lugano's early advantage held firm to secure a solid first-leg result.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

Mattia Zanotti Yellow Card

21' ▮

Renato Steffen assist: Kevin Behrens

31' ⚽ 1–0

HT 1–0

⇄ 46'

Iljasa Zulfiu

▮ 49'

Yellow Card

⇄ 68'

⇄ Meris Maliqi

Ezgjan Alioski ⇄ Dereck Moncada

68' ⇄

▮ 79'

Yellow Card

Daniel Dos Santos ⇄ Ahmed Kendouci

79' ⇄

Kevin Behrens ⇄ Joel Bichsel

80' ⇄

⇄ 80'

Kushtrim Gashi

Kevin Behrens Yellow Card

83' ▮

▮ 87'

Red Card

⇄ 88'

Jeudi Stevenson ⇄ Arbër Bytyqi

Yanis Cimignani ⇄ Elias Pihlström

89' ⇄

FT 1–0

FC Lugano

Match Stats

Dukagjini

71% Ball Possession 29%

Expected Goals (xG)

20 Total Shots 12

7 Shots on Goal 3

11 Shots off Goal 7

2 Blocked Shots 2

17 Shots insidebox 3

3 Shots outsidebox 9

7 Corner Kicks 3

5 Offsides 0

17 Fouls 12

2 Yellow Cards 2

0 Red Cards 1

3 Goalkeeper Saves 4

598 Total passes 237

545 Passes accurate 175

91% Passes % 74%

goals_prevented

FC Lugano

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
11 Renato Steffen F	8.5	91'	1	–	4	44 (39%)	4
8 Anto Grgić M	8.2	91'	–	–	1	95 (84%)	1
25 Uran Bislimi M	8.0	91'	–	–	1	109 (101%)	4
17 Lars Lukas Mai D	7.6	91'	–	–	1	73 (66%)	1
7 Ezgjan Alioski M	7.2	69'	–	–	–	41 (34%)	2
46 Mattia Zanotti D	7.0	91'	–	–	–	54 (52%)	1
6 Antonios Papadopoulos D	7.0	91'	–	–	2	59 (56%)	–
21 Yanis Cimignani M	7.0	89'	–	–	1	52 (47%)	1
91 Kevin Behrens F	7.0	80'	–	1	5	12 (9%)	1
16 David von Ballmoos G	6.9	91'	–	–	–	20 (20%)	–
27 Daniel Dos Santos F	6.7	80'	–	–	2	27 (27%)	1
14 Ahmed Kendouci M	6.7	11'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
30 Dereck Moncada F	6.6	22'	–	–	1	6 (5%)	1
18 Joel Bichsel D	6.3	11'	–	–	–	3 (2%)	–
24 Elias Pihlström F	—	2'	–	–	–	1 (1%)	–

Dukagjini

Player	Rating	Min	G	A	Shots	Passes	Tackles
77 Vitor Hugo D	7.7	91'	–	–	1	23 (18%)	–
14 Egzon Sinani D	7.3	91'	–	–	–	28 (22%)	2
5 Elton Basriu D	7.3	91'	–	–	–	26 (19%)	1
17 Mergim Pefqeli F	7.2	91'	–	–	2	41 (29%)	3
44 Tun Bardhoku D	6.6	91'	–	–	–	21 (20%)	–
99 Jeudi Stevenson F	6.5	89'	–	–	1	12 (6%)	–
23 Iljasa Zulfiu M	6.3	45'	–	–	–	9 (7%)	–
47 Dienit Isufi M	6.3	91'	–	–	3	16 (11%)	–
10 Altin Merlaku M	6.3	69'	–	–	1	11 (7%)	–
7 Granit Elezaj F	6.3	46'	–	–	–	2 (2%)	–
98 Meris Maliqi F	6.3	22'	–	–	1	3 (3%)	–
8 Kushtrim Gashi M	6.2	81'	–	–	1	20 (17%)	–
22 Arbër Bytyqi D	—	2'	–	–	–	–	–

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Confidence High (74%)

At a glance

Analiza noastră

FC Lugano să câștige sau să egaleze

Most likely score

1:0 · 12.6%

Both teams to score

46%

Over 2.5 goals

47%

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FC Lugano

WWDWW

Dukagjini

LDWDD

Last 1 meetings FC Lugano · 1W 0D 0L

Match summary

In the UEFA Europa Conference League match between FC Lugano and Dukagjini, FC Lugano will look to leverage their strong attacking form, having averaged 2.1 goals per game in their last five fixtures. Dukagjini, on the other hand, has demonstrated solid defensive capabilities, conceding only 1.2 goals per match in the same timeframe. The match could hinge on FC Lugano's ability to break through Dukagjini's defense and control possession, as they have shown superior ball retention statistics. Expect a tactical battle, with Lugano likely aiming to exploit any defensive lapses from the visitors.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Dukagjini goals →

	0	1	2	3
0	9	5	2	1
1	13	12	4	1
2	13	10	4	1
3	7	6	2	1
4	3	3	1
5	1	1

↑ FC Lugano goals · most likely 1–0 (12.6%)

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Players in form

FC Lugano

K. Behrens 6 gls

Dukagjini

No scorer data.

AI match tools

Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Match Result

Home Win

74%

Draw

18%

Away Win

Double Chance

Home or Draw

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Home or Away

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Draw or Away

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Winner

81% Home (No Draw) 19% Away (No Draw)

Super Win

35% Home Win by 2+ 5% Away Win by 2+

More Goals

60% Home Scores More 26% Equal Goals 14% Away Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

0.5

91%

26%

1.5

74%

53%

2.5

47%

75%

3.5

25%

89%

4.5

11%

96%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

54% BTTS No 46% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

17%

27%

22%

14%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Home Win & Over 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	9.2%	4.6%	2.3%	0.6%	0.1%
1	12.6%	12.2%	4.1%	1.1%	0.2%
2	12.5%	9.6%	3.7%	1.0%	0.2%
3	7.5%	5.8%	2.2%	0.6%	0.1%
4	3.3%	2.6%	1.0%	0.3%	0.1%

1h Result

1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1st Half Away Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Home or Draw

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1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

33%

0.5

67%

1.5

33%

89%

2.5

11%

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

33%

34%

22%

2h Result

2nd Half Home Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Away Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Home or Draw

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Draw or Away

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

26%

0.5

74%

58%

1.5

42%

83%

2.5

17%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

26%

32%

26%

11%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	FC Lugano	Draw	Dukagjini
FC Lugano	38.3%	3.4%	0.8%
Draw	20.7%	16.7%	6.1%
Dukagjini	2.4%	3.6%	8.0%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

17%

0.5

83%

47%

1.5

53%

74%

2.5

26%

90%

3.5

10%

Home Exact Goals

17%

30%

27%

16%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

45%

0.5

55%

81%

1.5

19%

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

37%

0.5

63%

74%

1.5

26%

Away Goals

Under Line Over

46%

0.5

54%

82%

1.5

18%

96%

2.5

99%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

46%

36%

14%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

70%

0.5

30%

95%

1.5

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

66%

0.5

34%

93%

1.5

Handicap

Home +2 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home -1 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -1 Win

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Head to Head: FC Lugano vs Dukagjini

1 FC Lugano Wins

0 Draws

0 Dukagjini Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
29 Jul 2026	Dukagjini	1 - 5	FC Lugano

FC Lugano — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	A Lausanne	W	0 - 4
16 Sep	H FC ST. Gallen	W	4 - 1
12 Sep	H BSC Young Boys	D	2 - 2
06 Sep	A FC Basel 1893	W	1 - 3
03 Sep	H Servette FC	W	1 - 0

Dukagjini — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
20 Sep	H Drita	L	1 - 2
14 Sep	A Ballkani	D	0 - 0
10 Sep	H Malisheva	W	2 - 0
29 Aug	A Gjilani	D	2 - 2
15 Aug	A Drenica Skënderaj	D	0 - 0

UEFA Europa Conference League Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Mjallby AIF	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Brighton	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Monaco	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	FK Jablonec	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Gent	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	St. Truiden	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	SC Freiburg	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Atalanta	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Ajax	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Twente	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Getafe	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	KuPS	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
13	CSKA Sofia	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
14	HNK Hajduk Split	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
15	Pafos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
16	Aarhus	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
17	FC Copenhagen	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
18	FC Midtjylland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
19	FC Nordsjaelland	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
20	Panathinaikos	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
21	Brann	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
22	SC Braga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
23	Heart Of Midlothian	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
24	FC Lugano	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
25	FK Crvena Zvezda	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
26	FC Thun	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
27	Trabzonspor	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
28	Borac Banja Luka	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
29	Kairat Almaty	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
30	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
31	Inter Club d'Escaldes	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
32	Kauno Žalgiris	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
33	Universitatea Craiova	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
34	FC Iberia 1999	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
35	Lincoln Red Imps FC	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
36	Riga	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0

FC Lugano

Formation: 3-4-2-1 Coach: Mattia Croci-Torti

16 Ballmoos

6 Papadopoulos

17 Mai

46 Zanotti

7 Alioski

8 Grgić

25 Bislimi

21 Cimignani

27 Santos

11 Steffen

91 Behrens

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
16	David von Ballmoos	G
46	Mattia Zanotti	D
17	Lars Lukas Mai	D
6	Antonios Papadopoulos	D
21	Yanis Cimignani	M
25	Uran Bislimi	M
8	Anto Grgić	M
7	Ezgjan Alioski	M
11	Renato Steffen	F
27	Daniel Dos Santos	F
91	Kevin Behrens	F

Substitutes

28	Felix Gebhardt	G
39	Ahmadou Ndiaye	G
4	Damian Kelvin	D
18	Joel Bichsel	D
14	Ahmed Kendouci	M
22	Beckham Castro	F
23	Gjan Ajdin	M
24	Elias Pihlström	F
30	Dereck Moncada	F
32	Nicolo Puddu	M

Dukagjini

Formation: 4-4-2 Coach: A. Dallku

1 Lekaj

44 Bardhoku

14 Sinani

5 Basriu

77 Hugo

10 Merlaku

8 Gashi

47 Isufi

23 Zulfiu

99 Stevenson

17 Pefqeli

Starting XI

#	Player	Pos
1	Egzon Lekaj	G
77	Vitor Hugo	D
5	Elton Basriu	D
14	Egzon Sinani	D
44	Tun Bardhoku	D
23	Iljasa Zulfiu	M
47	Dienit Isufi	M
8	Kushtrim Gashi	M
10	Altin Merlaku	M
17	Mergim Pefqeli	F
99	Jeudi Stevenson	F

Substitutes

16	Kenan Haxhihamza	G
2	Denis Hyseni	D
3	Melos Zenunaj	D
22	Arbër Bytyqi	D
33	Luan	D
7	Granit Elezaj	F
6	Arvanit Rexhaj	M
27	Valentin Hoti	M
66	Engjell Sylejmani	M
98	Meris Maliqi	F
9	Kron Thaci	F
88	Erjon Krasniqi	F