Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München Previsão
Palpite Atletico Madrid x Bayern München: O Sportiko estima 32% de probabilidade de vitória para o Atletico Madrid, 42% para o Bayern München e 26% de empate. Atualizado 3 Nov 2026, 21:53.
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Match Report
Bayern München claimed a composed 2-0 victory at the Metropolitano despite Atletico Madrid dominating possession and creating the clearer chances on paper. The first half ended goalless, with the hosts controlling 59% of the ball and generating 1.79 expected goals to Bayern's 0.76, yet failing to convert their pressure into a lead.
The game turned decisively in the opening exchanges of the second half. Lennart Karl broke the deadlock on 54 minutes, and although Joshua Kimmich picked up a yellow card two minutes later, Atletico's triple substitution on 59 minutes failed to shift the momentum. Konrad Laimer doubled the advantage on 74 minutes, effectively ending the contest. Our pre-match AI model had identified a Bayern win as the most likely outcome at 42%, a call that proved correct. Late bookings for Giuliano Simeone and Josip Stanišić summed up a frustrated home side.
Bayern's efficiency was the defining factor — just two shots on target converted into two goals, while Atletico's 19 total attempts and five shots on target yielded nothing. A clinical away performance secures an important Champions League league stage victory for the German side.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Atletico Madrid
Match Stats
Atletico Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Marc Pubill D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 52 (46%) | 3 |
| 17 Dávid Hancko D | 6.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 49 (43%) | 5 |
| 14 Marcos Llorente M | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 42 (37%) | 4 |
| 15 Jonathan David F | 6.7 | 15' | – | – | 1 | 4 (3%) | 1 |
| 24 Robin Le Normand D | 6.5 | 59' | – | – | – | 22 (20%) | – |
| 9 Alexander Sørloth F | 6.4 | 59' | – | – | – | 16 (7%) | – |
| 6 Koke M | 6.4 | 31' | – | – | – | 26 (23%) | 1 |
| 13 Jan Oblak G | 6.3 | 90' | – | – | – | 38 (26%) | – |
| 8 Pablo Barrios M | 6.3 | 75' | – | – | 2 | 42 (36%) | 3 |
| 22 Alejandro Grimaldo D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 48 (32%) | 4 |
| 19 Julián Alvarez F | 6.2 | 75' | – | – | 2 | 15 (13%) | – |
| 11 Ademola Lookman F | 6.1 | 31' | – | – | – | 11 (7%) | – |
| 4 Rodrigo Mendoza M | 6.1 | 15' | – | – | – | 10 (9%) | – |
| 10 Alex Baena M | 5.9 | 59' | – | – | – | 21 (17%) | 2 |
| 20 Giuliano Simeone M | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 37 (28%) | 1 |
| 7 Kang-in Lee M | 5.7 | 31' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | 1 |
Bayern München
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Konrad Laimer D | 8.7 | 89' | 1 | – | 3 | 57 (50%) | 5 |
| 42 Lennart Karl M | 8.2 | 68' | 1 | – | 2 | 26 (23%) | 4 |
| 4 Jonathan Tah D | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 45 (44%) | 3 |
| 2 Dayot Upamecano D | 7.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 75 (65%) | 4 |
| 8 Tom Bischof M | 7.4 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 72 (63%) | 6 |
| 11 Nathaniel Brown D | 7.3 | 22' | – | – | 1 | 3 (2%) | 1 |
| 6 Joshua Kimmich M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 109 (102%) | 2 |
| 17 Michael Olise M | 7.2 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 76 (69%) | 2 |
| 9 Harry Kane F | 7.1 | 90' | – | 1 | 5 | 34 (29%) | 1 |
| 3 Kim Min-jae D | 7.0 | 11' | – | – | – | 7 (6%) | – |
| 23 Sacha Boey D | 7.0 | 1' | – | – | – | – | – |
| 19 Alphonso Davies M | 6.9 | 79' | – | – | 1 | 44 (40%) | 2 |
| 1 Manuel Neuer G | 6.8 | 90' | – | – | – | 27 (19%) | – |
| 44 Josip Stanišić D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 2 | 63 (59%) | – |
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At a glance
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Upgrade NowLive insights
Min 76: Bayern München leads 0-2. Win probability: 98.2%. Comeback chance: 1.8%.
Bayern München now leads 0-2 with 97.9% win probability. Over 0.5 more goals: 41.3%.
Goal! Score now 0-1. Bayern München win: 74.6%. BTTS: 44.4%.
Half-time: 0-0. Second half goals expected - Over 0.5 remaining: 78.6%. Over 1.5 remaining: 50%.
Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Most likely scores
Model probability of each exact scoreline.
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Atletico Madrid vs Bayern München
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01 Dec 2020 | Atletico Madrid | 1 - 1 | Bayern München |
| 21 Oct 2020 | Bayern München | 4 - 0 | Atletico Madrid |
| 06 Dec 2016 | Bayern München | 1 - 0 | Atletico Madrid |
Atletico Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03 Nov | H Bayern München | L | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | A Levante | W | 0 - 2 |
| 24 Oct | H Deportivo La Coruna | W | 1 - 0 |
| 20 Oct | A VfB Stuttgart | D | 1 - 1 |
| 17 Oct | A Espanyol | W | 0 - 1 |
Bayern München — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 07 Nov | A FSV Mainz 05 | W | 1 - 2 |
| 03 Nov | A Atletico Madrid | W | 0 - 2 |
| 31 Oct | H Borussia Dortmund | D | 2 - 2 |
| 28 Oct | H 1. FC Magdeburg | W | 6 - 1 |
| 25 Oct | A SC Freiburg | W | 1 - 3 |
UEFA Champions League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Paris Saint Germain
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 20 | 5 | +15 | 12 |
| 2 |
Real Madrid
|
4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 7 | +6 | 12 |
| 3 |
Arsenal
|
4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | +5 | 10 |
| 4 |
Como
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 6 | +13 | 9 |
| 5 |
Barcelona
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 6 | +8 | 9 |
| 6 |
Aston Villa
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 9 |
| 7 |
Manchester City
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 7 | +5 | 9 |
| 8 |
Liverpool
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 10 | +4 | 9 |
| 9 |
Club Brugge KV
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 11 | 7 | +4 | 9 |
| 10 |
Sporting CP
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 9 |
| 11 |
Real Betis
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 9 |
| 12 |
Borussia Dortmund
|
4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 5 | +2 | 9 |
| 13 |
Bayern München
|
4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 8 |
| 14 |
VfB Stuttgart
|
4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 7 |
| 15 |
Inter
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 6 |
| 16 |
Lask Linz
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 6 |
| 17 |
Manchester United
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 6 |
| 18 |
Galatasaray
|
4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 6 |
| 19 |
Fenerbahçe
|
4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 5 |
| 20 |
AS Roma
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 4 |
| 21 |
Shakhtar Donetsk
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 4 |
| 22 |
Viking
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 |
Atletico Madrid
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -1 | 4 |
| 24 |
PSV Eindhoven
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 25 |
Bodo/Glimt
|
4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 4 |
| 26 |
FC Porto
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 |
Napoli
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3 |
| 28 |
Villarreal
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 3 |
| 29 |
AEK Athens FC
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 30 |
RB Leipzig
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 11 | -6 | 3 |
| 31 |
Sabah FA
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 3 |
| 32 |
Feyenoord
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 3 |
| 33 |
Lens
|
4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 3 |
| 34 |
Slavia Praha
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 1 |
| 35 |
Lille
|
4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 10 | -6 | 1 |
| 36 |
Slovan Bratislava
|
4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 17 | -16 | 0 |
Bayern München
Formation: 4-2-3-1
Coach: V. Kompany
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | M. Neuer | G |
| 27 | K. Laimer | D |
| 2 | D. Upamecano | D |
| 4 | J. Tah | D |
| 44 | J. Stanišić | D |
| 6 | J. Kimmich | M |
| 8 | T. Bischof | M |
| 17 | M. Olise | M |
| 42 | L. Karl | M |
| 19 | A. Davies | M |
| 9 | H. Kane | F |
Substitutes
| 40 | J. Urbig | G |
| 26 | S. Ulreich | G |
| 45 | A. Pavlović | M |
| 3 | Kim Min-Jae | D |
| 21 | H. Ito | D |
| 47 | David Daiber | M |
| 11 | N. Brown | D |
| 23 | S. Boey | D |
| 46 | T. Binder | F |
Atletico Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: D. Simeone
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | J. Oblak | G |
| 18 | Marc Pubill | D |
| 24 | Robin Le Normand | D |
| 17 | D. Hancko | D |
| 22 | Álex Grimaldo | D |
| 20 | G. Simeone | M |
| 8 | Pablo Barrios | M |
| 14 | Marcos Llorente | M |
| 10 | Álex Baena | M |
| 9 | A. Sørloth | F |
| 19 | J. Álvarez | F |
Substitutes
| 46 | J. Castillo | M |
| 15 | J. David | F |
| 27 | J. Dominguez | D |
| 26 | R. Hueso | D |
| 6 | Koke | M |
| 7 | Lee Kang-In | M |
| 11 | A. Lookman | F |
| 4 | Rodrigo Mendoza | M |
| 1 | J. Musso | G |
| 16 | Arnau Ortiz | F |
| 3 | O. Vargas | M |
| 30 | Dani MartÃnez | D |