FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven Previsão

UEFA Champions League UEFA Champions League · League Stage - 3
FT
Post on X
Estádio Do Dragão, Porto
Chamada de IA Vitória ou empate difícil do FC Porto
62%
23%
16%
Vitória do Mandante Empate Vitória do Visitante

Palpite FC Porto x PSV Eindhoven: O Sportiko estima 62% de probabilidade de vitória para o FC Porto, 16% para o PSV Eindhoven e 23% de empate. Atualizado 20 Oct 2026, 20:53.

Match Report

FC Porto dominated possession with 60% of the ball and attempted 18 shots at the Estádio do Dragão, yet PSV Eindhoven claimed a narrow 1–0 victory in this UEFA Champions League league stage encounter. The first half ended goalless despite Porto's territorial control, with Lutsharel Geertruida picking up a yellow card shortly before the break.

PSV broke the deadlock early in the second half when Guus Til converted a normal goal in the 57th minute, and Porto's head coach immediately responded with a triple substitution, introducing Samu, Oskar Pietuszewski, and Gabri Veiga. Our pre-match AI model had rated a Porto win as the most likely outcome at 62%, a call that ultimately did not materialise. Both sides made further changes as the game progressed, with Mauro Júnior receiving a yellow card in the 75th minute before being withdrawn six minutes later.

Despite Porto's expected goals figure of 1.69 suggesting they created the clearer opportunities on paper, they managed only three shots on target — identical to PSV's tally — and the Dutch side held firm to secure all three points.

AI-generated report based on match data.

Timeline

▮ 39'
L. Geertruida Yellow Card
HT 0–0
⚽ 0–1 57'
G. Til assist: Sven Mijnans
Samu ⇄ André Silva
58' ⇄
Oskar Pietuszewski ⇄ Borja Sainz
58' ⇄
Gabri Veiga ⇄ Hwang In-beom
58' ⇄
Zaidu Sanusi ⇄ Souza
69' ⇄
⇄ 74'
Yarek Gasiorowski ⇄ Armando Obispo
▮ 75'
Mauro Júnior Yellow Card
Victor Froholdt ⇄ Seko Fofana
76' ⇄
⇄ 81'
Mauro Júnior ⇄ Noah Fernandez
⇄ 81'
Esmir Bajraktarević ⇄ Dennis Man
⇄ 88'
Ivan Perišić ⇄ Amir Bouhamdi
⇄ 88'
Filip Kostić ⇄ Ryan Flamingo
FT 0–1
FC Porto

Match Stats

PSV Eindhoven
40% Ball Possession 60%
1.4 Expected Goals (xG) 1.69
12 Total Shots 18
3 Shots on Goal 3
9 Shots off Goal 11
0 Blocked Shots 4
7 Shots insidebox 12
5 Shots outsidebox 6
2 Corner Kicks 3
5 Offsides 3
7 Fouls 9
0 Yellow Cards 2
0 Red Cards 0
2 Goalkeeper Saves 2
421 Total passes 616
339 Passes accurate 529
9 Free Kicks 6
FC Porto
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
5 Jan Bednarek D 7.0 90' – – – 48 (43%) –
4 Jakub Kiwior D 7.0 90' – – 1 59 (55%) –
20 Alberto Costa D 6.9 90' – – 1 34 (28%) 1
10 Gabri Veiga M 6.8 58' – – 1 24 (17%) 3
19 André Silva F 6.7 32' – – 1 10 (8%) –
13 Pablo Rosario M 6.7 90' – – 2 43 (38%) 1
9 Samu F 6.6 58' – – 1 19 (12%) –
99 Diogo Costa G 6.5 90' – – – 48 (37%) –
33 Souza D 6.5 21' – – – 8 (7%) –
12 Zaidu Sanusi D 6.4 69' – – – 26 (20%) –
42 Seko Fofana M 6.3 14' – – – 10 (10%) –
8 Victor Froholdt M 6.3 76' – – 1 21 (17%) 1
16 Hwang In-beom M 6.2 32' – – – 19 (13%) –
17 Borja Sainz F 6.2 32' – – – 5 (4%) –
11 Pepê F 6.1 90' – – 1 25 (16%) 1
77 Oskar Pietuszewski F 6.1 58' – – 3 9 (5%) –
PSV Eindhoven
Player Rating Min G A Shots Passes Tackles
20 G. Til F 8.2 90' 1 – 4 27 (25%) –
8 Sergiño Dest D 7.8 90' – – 2 58 (53%) 3
21 Sven Mijnans M 7.7 90' – 1 2 43 (36%) –
3 Yarek Gasiorowski D 7.6 74' – – – 66 (58%) 2
19 Esmir Bajraktarević M 7.2 81' – – 4 35 (34%) 1
2 L. Geertruida D 7.2 90' – – – 93 (86%) –
4 Armando Obispo D 7.1 16' – – – 6 (4%) –
6 Ryan Flamingo D 7.0 2' – – – 4 (2%) –
5 Ivan Perišić M 6.9 88' – – 2 52 (44%) 1
31 Noah Fernandez M 6.9 9' – – – 4 (3%) –
18 Filip Kostić D 6.8 88' – – 1 49 (44%) –
27 Dennis Man F 6.6 9' – – 1 4 (4%) 1
37 Amir Bouhamdi F 6.6 2' – – – 2 (2%) –
32 Matěj Kovář G 6.5 90' – – – 48 (31%) 1
17 Mauro Júnior M 6.4 81' – – 2 68 (57%) –
24 Kodai Sano M 6.3 90' – – – 54 (46%) 3
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Confidence Medium (62%)

At a glance

Nossa tendência
Vitória ou empate difícil do FC Porto
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FC Porto
WWWWL
PSV Eindhoven
LWDWL
Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Second-model agreement

Our model vs an independent one — when they agree, conviction is higher.

Ours
Independent
Home
62%
10%
Draw
23%
45%
Away
16%
45%

Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

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Head to Head: FC Porto vs PSV Eindhoven

No head-to-head history found between these teams.

FC Porto — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
04 Nov H Napoli W 4 - 1
31 Oct H Estoril W 4 - 0
28 Oct H Academico Viseu W 1 - 0
24 Oct A GIL Vicente W 0 - 1
20 Oct H PSV Eindhoven L 0 - 1

PSV Eindhoven — Recent Form

Date Opponent Result Score
04 Nov H Club Brugge KV L 1 - 2
31 Oct H Willem II W 7 - 0
25 Oct H Feyenoord D 1 - 1
20 Oct A FC Porto W 0 - 1
17 Oct A ADO Den Haag L 2 - 1

UEFA Champions League Standings

# Team P W D L GD Pts
1
Paris Saint Germain
4 4 0 0 +15 12
2
Real Madrid
4 4 0 0 +6 12
3
Arsenal
4 3 1 0 +5 10
4
Como
4 3 0 1 +13 9
5
Barcelona
4 3 0 1 +8 9
6
Aston Villa
4 3 0 1 +6 9
7
Manchester City
4 3 0 1 +5 9
8
Liverpool
4 3 0 1 +4 9
9
Club Brugge KV
4 3 0 1 +4 9
10
Sporting CP
4 3 0 1 +4 9
11
Real Betis
4 3 0 1 +2 9
12
Borussia Dortmund
4 3 0 1 +2 9
13
Bayern München
4 2 2 0 +7 8
14
VfB Stuttgart
4 2 1 1 +3 7
15
Inter
4 2 0 2 +2 6
16
Lask Linz
4 2 0 2 +1 6
17
Manchester United
4 2 0 2 0 6
18
Galatasaray
4 2 0 2 -1 6
19
Fenerbahçe
4 1 2 1 -5 5
20
AS Roma
4 1 1 2 +2 4
21
Shakhtar Donetsk
4 1 1 2 0 4
22
Viking
4 1 1 2 -1 4
23
Atletico Madrid
4 1 1 2 -1 4
24
PSV Eindhoven
4 1 1 2 -1 4
25
Bodo/Glimt
4 1 1 2 -5 4
26
FC Porto
4 1 0 3 -1 3
27
Napoli
4 1 0 3 -5 3
28
Villarreal
4 1 0 3 -6 3
29
AEK Athens FC
4 1 0 3 -6 3
30
RB Leipzig
4 1 0 3 -6 3
31
Sabah FA
4 1 0 3 -6 3
32
Feyenoord
4 1 0 3 -7 3
33
Lens
4 1 0 3 -12 3
34
Slavia Praha
4 0 1 3 -4 1
35
Lille
4 0 1 3 -6 1
36
Slovan Bratislava
4 0 0 4 -16 0

PSV Eindhoven

Formation: 4-2-3-1 Coach: P. Bosz
32 Kovář
18 Kostić
3 Gasiorowski
2 Geertruida
8 Dest
17 Júnior
24 Sano
5 Perišić
21 Mijnans
19 Bajraktarevic
20 Til

Starting XI

# Player Pos
32 M. Kovář G
8 S. Dest D
2 L. Geertruida D
3 Yarek Gasiorowski D
18 F. Kostić D
24 K. Sano M
17 Mauro Júnior M
19 E. Bajraktarevic M
21 S. Mijnans M
5 I. Perišić M
20 G. Til F

Substitutes

51 T. Smolenaars G
35 A. Santos M
1 N. Olij G
4 A. Obispo D
27 D. Man F
6 R. Flamingo D
31 N. Fernandez M
42 S. Cornecion M
23 M. Hansen F
37 A. Bouhamdi F

FC Porto

Formation: 4-3-3 Coach: F. Farioli
99 Costa
12 Sanusi
4 Kiwior
5 Bednarek
20 Baio
10 Veiga
13 Rosario
8 Froholdt
77 Pietuszewski
9 Samu
11 Aquino

Starting XI

# Player Pos
99 Diogo Costa G
20 Alberto Baio D
5 J. Bednarek D
4 J. Kiwior D
12 Z. Sanusi D
8 Victor Mow Froholdt M
13 P. Rosario M
10 Gabri Veiga M
11 Pepê Aquino F
9 Samu F
77 O. Pietuszewski F

Substitutes

16 Hwang In-Beom M
29 S. Giménez F
52 Martim Fernandes D
14 Cláudio Ramos G
18 N. Pérez D
17 Borja Sainz F
74 Francisco Moura D
24 Andorinha G
19 André Silva F
22 A. Varela M
33 Souza D
42 S. Fofana M

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