Real Madrid vs Alaves Previsão
Palpite Real Madrid x Alaves: O Sportiko estima 81% de probabilidade de vitória para o Real Madrid, 6% para o Alaves e 13% de empate. Atualizado 27 Jul 2026, 05:46.
Match Report
Real Madrid secured a narrow 2–1 victory over Alaves at home in La Liga Matchday 33, with the winning margin coming under late pressure. Kylian Mbappé broke the deadlock on 30 minutes to give Carlo Ancelotti's side a 1–0 lead at half-time, though the hosts were forced into an early substitution when Éder Militão was replaced just before the interval.
Vinícius Júnior doubled the advantage five minutes into the second half, and a flurry of changes followed as Madrid rotated their squad, with Arda Güler, Jude Bellingham, and Trent Alexander-Arnold all introduced. Alaves, however, refused to capitulate and pulled a goal back in stoppage time to set up a tense finish. The xG figures — 1.62 for Madrid against 1.76 for Alaves — reflected a more competitive contest than the scoreline suggested, with the visitors generating 19 total shots.
Madrid's 61% possession and nine corner kicks underlined their territorial dominance, even if the performance was far from convincing. The pre-match AI model had placed an 81% probability on a Real Madrid win, a call that ultimately proved correct.
AI-generated report based on match data.
Timeline
Real Madrid
Match Stats
Real Madrid
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Vinícius Júnior F | 9.5 | 90' | 1 | – | 3 | 43 (38%) | – |
| 24 Dean Huijsen D | 8.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 71 (66%) | 2 |
| 10 Kylian Mbappé F | 8.2 | 90' | 1 | – | 6 | 43 (36%) | – |
| 15 Arda Güler M | 7.7 | 58' | – | 1 | – | 51 (47%) | 1 |
| 13 Andriy Lunin G | 7.7 | 90' | – | – | – | 36 (32%) | – |
| 5 Jude Bellingham M | 7.6 | 58' | – | – | 1 | 35 (32%) | 1 |
| 12 Trent Alexander-Arnold D | 7.3 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 65 (61%) | – |
| 22 Antonio Rüdiger D | 7.2 | 46' | – | – | – | 34 (32%) | – |
| 8 Federico Valverde M | 7.2 | 90' | – | 1 | 1 | 54 (50%) | 2 |
| 18 Álvaro Carreras D | 7.0 | 90' | – | – | – | 75 (68%) | 5 |
| 3 Éder Militão D | 7.0 | 44' | – | – | 1 | 23 (19%) | 2 |
| 14 Aurélien Tchouaméni M | 6.9 | 63' | – | – | 1 | 42 (37%) | – |
| 6 Eduardo Camavinga M | 6.7 | 27' | – | – | – | 19 (14%) | – |
| 30 Franco Mastantuono F | 6.3 | 32' | – | – | 2 | 10 (8%) | – |
| 2 Daniel Carvajal D | 6.2 | 27' | – | – | – | 15 (14%) | – |
| 21 Brahim Díaz M | 6.0 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 15 (15%) | 2 |
Alaves
| Player | Rating | Min | G | A | Shots | Passes | Tackles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Nahuel Tenaglia D | 7.5 | 90' | – | – | – | 20 (18%) | 3 |
| 8 Antonio Blanco M | 7.2 | 75' | – | – | – | 52 (49%) | 2 |
| 19 Pablo Ibáñez M | 7.0 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 22 (20%) | 4 |
| 6 Ander Guevara M | 6.9 | 15' | – | 1 | 1 | 19 (19%) | – |
| 24 Victor Parada D | 6.7 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 34 (32%) | 1 |
| 17 Jonny Otto D | 6.6 | 90' | – | – | 1 | 48 (41%) | 4 |
| 10 Carles Aleñá M | 6.6 | 32' | – | – | 1 | 27 (25%) | – |
| 20 Calebe Gonçalves M | 6.6 | 24' | – | – | – | 12 (12%) | – |
| 22 Ibrahim Diabaté F | 6.5 | 24' | – | – | 1 | 2 (1%) | – |
| 3 Youssef Enriquez Lekhedim D | 6.3 | 66' | – | – | – | 15 (15%) | – |
| 4 Denis Suarez M | 6.3 | 58' | – | – | – | 25 (21%) | – |
| 11 Toni Martínez F | 6.3 | 90' | 1 | – | 6 | 30 (19%) | 1 |
| 7 Ángel Pérez D | 6.2 | 90' | – | – | – | 37 (28%) | 1 |
| 18 Jon Guridi M | 6.2 | 58' | – | – | – | 18 (14%) | 2 |
| 1 Antonio Sivera G | 5.9 | 90' | – | – | – | 23 (6%) | – |
| 15 Lucas Boyé F | 5.9 | 66' | – | – | – | 15 (11%) | 2 |
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At a glance
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Advanced analysis
Expected goals (xG)
How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.
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Upgrade NowPlayers in form
Kylian Mbappé
7 gls
J. Bellingham
3 gls
L. Boyé
4 gls
M. Díaz
3 gls
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Upgrade NowHead to Head: Real Madrid vs Alaves
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Dec 2025 | Alaves | 1 - 2 | Real Madrid |
| 13 Apr 2025 | Alaves | 0 - 1 | Real Madrid |
| 24 Sep 2024 | Real Madrid | 3 - 2 | Alaves |
Real Madrid — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Sep | A Atletico Madrid | L | 2 - 1 |
| 15 Sep | A Elche | W | 2 - 3 |
| 12 Sep | H Rayo Vallecano | W | 4 - 1 |
| 08 Sep | H Inter | W | 2 - 1 |
| 04 Sep | A Real Betis | L | 1 - 0 |
Alaves — Recent Form
| Date | Opponent | Result | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19 Sep | A Athletic Club | D | 0 - 0 |
| 15 Sep | H Valencia | L | 0 - 1 |
| 12 Sep | A Racing Santander | L | 2 - 1 |
| 06 Sep | H Osasuna | W | 5 - 2 |
| 28 Aug | H Villarreal | W | 1 - 0 |
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Barcelona
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 31 | 7 | +24 | 21 |
| 2 |
Atletico Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 16 | 7 | +9 | 16 |
| 3 |
Real Betis
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 16 |
| 4 |
Real Madrid
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | 18 | 8 | +10 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sevilla
|
7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 10 | 9 | +1 | 13 |
| 6 |
Alaves
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 11 |
| 7 |
Deportivo La Coruna
|
7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 8 | +2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Real Sociedad
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 13 | -4 | 10 |
| 9 |
Villarreal
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 12 | +1 | 8 |
| 10 |
Athletic Club
|
6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 |
Getafe
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 |
Rayo Vallecano
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 | 16 | -5 | 8 |
| 13 |
Osasuna
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 8 |
| 14 |
Celta Vigo
|
7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 6 | +2 | 7 |
| 15 |
Espanyol
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 10 | 10 | 0 | 7 |
| 16 |
Racing Santander
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 | 21 | -10 | 7 |
| 17 |
Levante
|
6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 12 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 |
Elche
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 5 |
| 19 |
Valencia
|
7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 4 |
| 20 |
Malaga
|
7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3 |
Real Madrid
Formation: 4-4-2
Coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 13 | A. Lunin | G |
| 12 | T. Alexander-Arnold | D |
| 3 | Eder Militao | D |
| 24 | D. Huijsen | D |
| 18 | A. Carreras | D |
| 8 | F. Valverde | M |
| 5 | J. Bellingham | M |
| 14 | A. Tchouameni | M |
| 15 | A. Guler | M |
| 10 | K. Mbappe | F |
| 7 | Vinicius Junior | F |
Substitutes
| 43 | S. Mestre | G |
| 4 | D. Alaba | D |
| 2 | D. Carvajal | D |
| 22 | A. Rudiger | D |
| 6 | E. Camavinga | M |
| 30 | F. Mastantuono | F |
| 45 | T. Pitarch | M |
| 19 | D. Ceballos | M |
| 23 | F. Mendy | D |
| 21 | B. Diaz | M |
| 20 | F. Garcia | D |
| 16 | G. Garcia | F |
Alaves
Formation: 5-3-2
Coach: Quique Sanchez Flores
Starting XI
| # | Player | Pos |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | A. Sivera | G |
| 7 | A. Perez | D |
| 17 | Jonny Otto | D |
| 14 | N. Tenaglia | D |
| 24 | V. Parada | D |
| 3 | Yusi | D |
| 18 | J. Guridi | M |
| 8 | A. Blanco | M |
| 4 | D. Suarez | M |
| 11 | T. Martinez | F |
| 15 | L. Boye | F |
Substitutes
| 13 | R. Fernandez | G |
| 31 | G. Swiderski | G |
| 16 | V. Koski | D |
| 22 | I. Diabate | F |
| 34 | A. Manas | - |
| 27 | E. Munoz | - |
| 9 | M. Diaz | F |
| 10 | C. Alena | M |
| 6 | A. Guevara | M |
| 5 | J. Pacheco | D |
| 20 | Calebe | M |
| 19 | P. Ibanez | M |