Leon vs Toluca Previsão

Liga MX · Apertura - 14

24 Oct 2026, 23:00

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Toluca

Away

Chamada de IA Toluca para vencer ou empatar

10%

25%

65%

Vitória do Mandante Empate Vitória do Visitante

Palpite Leon x Toluca: O Sportiko estima 10% de probabilidade de vitória para o Leon, 65% para o Toluca e 25% de empate. Atualizado 31 Aug 2026, 15:58.

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At a glance

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Most likely score

0:1 · 16.9%

Both teams to score

35%

Over 2.5 goals

39%

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Leon

DWLWL

Toluca

LWWWW

Last 3 meetings Leon · 0W 0D 3L

Match summary

In the upcoming Liga MX match, León faces Toluca. León has shown a strong attacking presence, averaging 1.8 goals per game this season, while maintaining a solid defensive record, conceding only 1.1 goals per match. Toluca, on the other hand, has struggled with consistency, averaging 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded per game. Key players to watch include León's top scorer, who has netted six goals this season, and Toluca's playmaker, who leads the team in assists. This match could hinge on León's ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities and Toluca's need to tighten their defense.

Advanced analysis

Expected goals (xG)

How many goals each side is likely to create, on average.

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Most likely scores

Model probability of each exact scoreline.

Toluca goals →

	0	1	2	3	4	5
0	12	17	16	9	4	1
1	4	11	8	5	2	1
2	1	3	2	1	1
3
4
5

↑ Leon goals · most likely 0–1 (16.9%)

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Players in form

Leon

D. Arcila 4 gls

D. Cambindo 3 gls

Toluca

F. Viñas 4 gls

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Instant AI analysis of this match.

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Match Result

Away Win

65%

Draw

25%

Home Win

10%

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS No 35% BTTS Yes

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Match Result

Away Win

65%

Draw

25%

Home Win

10%

Double Chance

Draw or Away

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Home or Away

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Home or Draw

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Winner

87% Away (No Draw) 13% Home (No Draw)

Super Win

39% Away Win by 2+ 2% Home Win by 2+

More Goals

65% Away Scores More 25% Equal Goals 10% Home Scores More

Total Goals

Under Line Over

12%

0.5

88%

33%

1.5

67%

61%

2.5

39%

81%

3.5

19%

93%

4.5

98%

5.5

Both Teams To Score

65% BTTS No 35% BTTS Yes

Exact Goals

12%

21%

28%

20%

12%

Goal Range

1-3 Goals

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2-4 Goals

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1-2 Goals

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2-3 Goals

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3-5 Goals

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4-6 Goals

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Odd / Even Total Goals

53% Even Total Goals 47% Odd Total Goals

BTTS + Goals

BTTS & Over 2.5

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BTTS & Under 3.5

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BTTS & Over 3.5

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Result + Goals

Away Win & Over 2.5

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Away Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Under 2.5

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Home Win & Over 2.5

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Draw & Over 2.5

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Double Chance + Goals

Draw/Away & Over 1.5

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Home/Away & Over 2.5

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Home/Draw & Over 1.5

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Correct Score

H \ A	0	1	2	3	4
0	11.7%	16.9%	15.8%	9.2%	4.0%
1	4.3%	10.9%	8.4%	4.9%	2.1%
2	1.5%	2.6%	2.2%	1.3%	0.6%
3	0.3%	0.5%	0.4%	0.2%	0.1%
4	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	0.0%	0.0%

1h Result

1st Half Away Win

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1st Half Draw

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1st Half Home Win

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1h Double Chance

1st Half Draw or Away

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1st Half Home or Away

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1st Half Home or Draw

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1h Goals

Under Line Over

36%

0.5

64%

71%

1.5

29%

91%

2.5

1h Btts

1st Half BTTS Yes

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1h Exact Goals

36%

35%

20%

2h Result

2nd Half Away Win

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2nd Half Draw

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2nd Half Home Win

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2h Double Chance

2nd Half Draw or Away

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2nd Half Home or Away

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2nd Half Home or Draw

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2h Goals

Under Line Over

31%

0.5

69%

65%

1.5

35%

88%

2.5

12%

2h Btts

2nd Half BTTS Yes

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2h Exact Goals

31%

34%

23%

Half Time / Full Time

HT \ FT	Leon	Draw	Toluca
Leon	4.9%	2.5%	1.5%
Draw	4.7%	17.6%	21.0%
Toluca	0.5%	3.0%	44.2%

Read: row = result at half-time, column = result at full-time. Computed from the joint first-half / second-half score distribution.

Home Goals

Under Line Over

59%

0.5

41%

90%

1.5

10%

98%

2.5

100%

3.5

Home Exact Goals

59%

31%

Home 1h Goals

Under Line Over

79%

0.5

21%

98%

1.5

Home 2h Goals

Under Line Over

74%

0.5

26%

96%

1.5

Away Goals

Under Line Over

18%

0.5

82%

49%

1.5

51%

75%

2.5

25%

91%

3.5

Away Exact Goals

18%

31%

27%

16%

Away 1h Goals

Under Line Over

44%

0.5

56%

80%

1.5

20%

Away 2h Goals

Under Line Over

40%

0.5

60%

77%

1.5

23%

Handicap

Away +2 Win

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Away +1 Win

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Home +2 Win

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Away -1 Win

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Home +1 Win

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Away -1 Draw

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Away -2 Draw

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Away -2 Win

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Home -1 Draw

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Home -1 Win

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Home -2 Draw

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Home -2 Win

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Head to Head: Leon vs Toluca

0 Leon Wins

0 Draws

3 Toluca Wins

Date	Home	Score	Away
03 Sep 2026	Toluca	2 - 0	Leon
26 Apr 2026	Toluca	4 - 1	Leon
04 Oct 2025	Leon	2 - 4	Toluca

Leon — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	A Club Queretaro	D	1 - 1
15 Sep	H Atletico San Luis	W	2 - 0
11 Sep	A U.N.A.M. - Pumas	L	3 - 1
06 Sep	H Club America	W	1 - 0
03 Sep	A Toluca	L	2 - 0

Toluca — Recent Form

Date	Opponent	Result	Score
21 Sep	H Santos Laguna	L	2 - 3
16 Sep	A Puebla	W	0 - 1
12 Sep	H Atlas	W	5 - 2
07 Sep	H Monterrey	W	2 - 0
03 Sep	H Leon	W	2 - 0

Liga MX Standings

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	GD	Pts
1	Toluca	9	6	1	2	20	9	+11	19
2	Guadalajara Chivas	9	5	3	1	17	8	+9	18
3	Club America	8	5	2	1	17	8	+9	17
4	Cruz Azul	9	5	0	4	16	15	+1	15
5	Club Queretaro	8	4	2	2	11	8	+3	14
6	Club Tijuana	8	4	2	2	12	10	+2	14
7	Leon	9	4	2	3	12	10	+2	14
8	Puebla	9	4	2	3	11	11	0	14
9	Atlas	9	4	2	3	13	15	-2	14
10	Monterrey	8	4	1	3	14	10	+4	13
11	CF Pachuca	9	3	3	3	15	10	+5	12
12	U.N.A.M. - Pumas	9	3	3	3	12	13	-1	12
13	Atletico San Luis	9	2	3	4	11	16	-5	9
14	Atlante FC	9	1	5	3	8	13	-5	8
15	Necaxa	9	2	2	5	10	16	-6	8
16	Tigres UANL	9	1	4	4	9	13	-4	7
17	Santos Laguna	9	2	1	6	9	15	-6	7
18	FC Juarez	9	1	0	8	6	23	-17	3

Lineups Not Yet Available

Team lineups are typically announced about one hour before kick-off.